People sometimes talk about how the seafloor is one of the great unexplored mysteries - and it's true - but there's a vast region of land that also qualifies: the Tibetan Plateau. 🧵 1/
Standing at ~4.8 km above sea level (15,700 ft), the Plateau is extremely inhospitable to humans: oxygen is almost halved compared to sea level. Operating at this altitude is difficult: movement is exhausting, thinking is hard. 2/
For comparison: the highest peak in the continental US is Mt. Whitney, at 14,494 feet (4418 m).
That's lower than the AVERAGE elevation of the Tibetan Plateau - a region 2000 km x 1000 km! 3/
The Tibetan Plateau covers 2.5 million square km. That's equivalent to California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, AND Texas combined.
That's 60% of the area of the EU, or 78% the area of India. 4/
Tibetans, who have lived at these altitudes for generations, actually have a genetic adaptation that modifies their red blood cells, allowing them to cope with low oxygen levels. (This gene matches 41,000 yr old DNA from a group of extinct humans!) 5/
So: the Tibetan Plateau is huge and high. But although you might usually think of mountains as rugged, the plateau is also SUPER FLAT. (The borders of the plateau stand taller - most impressively to the south: the Himalaya with Mt. Everest at 8849 m). 6/
So, WHY?
Why is the plateau so high?
Why is it so big?
Why is it so flat?
The answer lies in geology and plate tectonics. 7/
Earth's continents go through "supercontinent cycles": the continents collide, stick, and then break apart.
The last supercontinent was Pangaea. It started to break up about 225 million years ago - not long after early dinosaurs started to appear in the fossil record. 8/
Pangaea broke into two parts, basically representing today's northern & southern continents.
But ~120 million years ago, India split off of the southern half and started to move north. 9/
What was driving this? Like most plate movements, subduction of oceanic crust in between. Oceanic crust is made of mantle material. As it cools, it becomes denser than the mantle below. If it gets the chance, it sinks, pulling continents along behind. 10/
There's no ocean between India and Eurasia today, of course - because ~50 million years ago, the oceanic crust finally subducted away, and the two blocks collided. The plateau has been growing ever since.
Here's how the plates are moving today. 11/
More than 1,400 km of shortening has occurred across the Plateau. All that material had to go somewhere! A lot of it went into thickening the crust: it doubled to ~60-70 km thick. A lot got squeezed to the sides - that's why the Plateau is so wide. 12/
That extra-thick crust supports the high elevations of the Plateau ("isostasy"). Because continental crust is less dense than the mantle, these low-density roots balance the extra mass above. (Just like icebergs!) 13/
Why is the Plateau flat? This may partly be because many rivers drain inward, so mountains erode and fill nearby valleys. It's also possible that the deep crust moves and deforms in response to gravitational forces, "levelling" the surface. 14/
But the question of how exactly the crust got thick remains debated. One plate slid under another? Giant thrust faults progressively active from south to north? Flow of deep material?
The plateau makes answering these questions hard, because... 15/
DOI: 10.1126/science.105978
...it's so hard to work there! Understanding the subsurface is ALWAYS hard but geoscientists have ways to image it. Those methods involve deploying instruments - to listen to earthquakes, listen to echoes of our own signals, record magnetic field and gravity variations. 16/
We've done some of this in the Plateau, but it's HARD. High altitude, only occasional roads, limited facilities.
For example, here are the locations of the INDEPTH experiments (started 1992). Sparse, largely following roads. 17/
Of course, even perfect images of the subsurface today wouldn't tell us how the Plateau grew over 50 million years. We have to piece that together from clues - leaf fossils, fragments of volcanic rock, bits of limestone. 18/
Incongruously, despite its inaccessibility, the Plateau has been imaged in detail by satellites - little atmospheric distortion to get in the way! These reveal a stark but beautiful landscape, dotted with icy lakes. 20/
Although the paper is framed around "earthquake forecasting," it's a prediction paper. They use the word prediction in both the paper and the supplement.
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This was reviewed through BSSA, and is being promoted by SSA.
Earthquake prediction, if it were proved, would be a BIG DEAL. The bar for passing review should be very high.
The 2002 Molise earthquakes occurred within ~1 day of each other (Oct 31 and Nov 1). The first quake collapsed a school, killing half the children inside (26 of 51). At the time, the area was considered to have no seismic hazard.
The school was built with reinforced concrete, but the second floor was added later, and it is possible that this made the building more susceptible to collapse.
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Several people have asked me recently about whether we should expect a large earthquake on the Afrin fault, south of the Feb 6 rupture.
First: no one can predict earthquakes, so if anyone has told you they can, they are wrong.
But let's take a look anyway.
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First, what is the Afrin fault? The AFEAD dataset has a small fault listed under this name, running through the city of Kilis, Turkey. An extension of this fault is mapped near the city of Afrin, Syria.
These faults are part of the northern end of the Dead Sea Fault.
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You can explore these faults yourself. The dataset describes the "Afrin fault" as having a slip rate of <1 mm/yr - i.e., not really detectable. But the extensions are a bit faster, maybe up to 5 mm/yr. The Dead Sea Fault slips ~5 mm/yr.
Why did a M5 earthquake occur HERE yesterday, in what is apparently the middle of the African Plate?
Answer: It's not the middle of the African Plate, it's the East African Rift: the continent is pulling apart at a rate of ~1-5 mm/yr.
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Yesterday's earthquake was just the latest in a long series of earthquakes - and not the largest, either; there was a M6 in 2020 to the south.
The "rift" isn't a single fault, but many.
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Volcanoes are scattered along the rift, too. As the crust thins, deeper areas experience lower stress, allowing "decompression melting" - hot rocks kept in a solid state by pressure will melt if that pressure is released.
A M6 earthquake occurred a few hours ago offshore Japan. Due to its magnitude & distance from shore, it was not damaging, but the setting is interesting to explore.
This is a subduction zone: the Pacific Plate is subducting below the Okhotsk Plate at a rate of ~9 cm/yr. The Okhotsk Plate used to be considered part of the North American Plate (even though it's in Japan!) but it actually moves slightly differently.
This is a very active place, seismically speaking. Today's earthquake occurred on the subduction interface fault (called a "megathrust" - i.e. a really big thrust fault). That megathrust has hosted many large earthquakes, including...
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