Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 3 13 tweets 3 min read
We are witnessing, literally watching live, Putin commit genocide on an industrial scale in Ukraine while the most powerful military alliance in history stands aside. It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts. 1/13
Putin once again told Macron to go to hell, no surprise. NATO/EU has already told Putin they won't touch his forces, so why should he listen? Russia is lifting target limitations and the death toll is rising every hour and lack of water & electricity is critical. 2/13
No treaty forbids NATO nations from fighting to defend in Ukraine. It's a choice based on the risk of Putin going nuclear, many say. That arming Ukrainians is an acceptable risk of WWIII & the citizenship of the pilot or soldier changes Putin's nuclear calculus, or NATO's. 3/13
If they care so much about the fine print and think Putin does too, ask Zelensky to issue Ukrainian passports to any volunteer to fly in combat. Sell jets to Ukraine for €1 each and paint UKR flags on them. Do you think Putin will care? Is it worth the lives lost? 4/13
This is already World War III. Putin started it long ago & Ukraine is only the current front. He will escalate anyway, and it's even more likely if he succeeds in destroying Ukraine because you have again convinced him you won't stop him even though you could. 5/13
Biden & others insist NATO would retaliate should Putin attack Baltic members. Watching Ukraine, I am not sure of that at all, and Putin won't be either. If the calculation is about nuclear risk, it's no different over Estonia than Ukraine. Don't say "Putin would never". 6/13
If this sounds familiar, it's the same argument from 2014, when Putin invaded E Ukraine and annexed Crimea. It was too risky to stop him, I was told, as I pleaded for intervention and warned he would never stop there. Here we are, with bombs raining down. 7/13
Risk and costs are higher now because the "reasonable" people in the West always choose lower risk today to guarantee higher risk tomorrow. Clearing the UKR skies after a warning period is risky. Letting Putin destroy Ukraine is riskier, & a human and moral disaster. 8/13
There is no waiting this out. This isn't chess; there's no draw, no stalemate. Either Putin destroys Ukraine and eventually hits NATO with an even greater catastrophe, or Putin falls in Russia. He cannot be stopped with weakness. 9/13
The corridors to get weapons, food, and medicine in and refugees out are narrowing and can be closed. Putin can bomb the trains, close the borders with NATO nations. The odds of Russian forces hitting a NATO asset are increasing, and then what? Still watching? 10/13
If your answer is no, that if a wing of a RU jet crosses Polish airspace, of course NATO will engage immediately, ask why thousands of Ukrainians civilians dying first matters less than a treaty, and what that says to Putin. That you're honorable, or a fool? We know. 11/13
As I said in 2014 and a fateful week ago, the price of stopping a dictator always goes up. What would have been enough to stop Putin 8 years or 6 months or 2 weeks ago is not enough today, and the price will rise again tomorrow. Fight. Find a way. 12/13
Putin vows to exterminate Ukrainians while we watch. Ukraine did nothing wrong but try to join the democratic world that is now witnessing crimes against humanity in real time. Not unable. Unwilling. #CloseTheSky 13/13

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More from @Kasparov63

May 13
These calls are idiotic and damaging to the cause of saving Ukrainian lives. Putin and, even more importantly, those around him, see him getting these calls and still being the big boss, making concessions less likely.
The impulse of Western leaders for 15 years has been to throw Putin a diplomatic lifeline whenever he commits an atrocity. You'd hope they'd notice that it only strengthens his position, leading to more repression and aggression.
The only thing that alters Putin's behavior are threats to his grip on power in Russia. Everything else is noise to him. Summits, calls, and offers to save face do the opposite. Instead, make it clear there is no way back for Russia & his cronies with Putin.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 29
The time has come for the oligarch cowards and thugs who never had to choose between their lives of comfort in the West and backing Putin's dictatorship and foreign aggression.…
This reckoning also exposes the Western national & international systems that welcomed Russian cash, people, trade, and other business that funded Putin's repression & war. Legal or illegal, it must end.
Listen to Putin's anonymous billionaires whine about how the systems they built or corrupted to drain Russia for decades have been unraveled in weeks. They've been nationalizing the costs and privatizing the profits and it's ending.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 25
Time to talk about Germany, Russia, and if their corrupt relationship is really over. The Telegraph report of weapons to Russia is ugly, but small compared to decades of Germany "separating business and politics" which was nothing but appeasing Putin.…
That former chancellor Gerhard Schröder is an active Putin agent is bad enough. War and war crimes aren't enough to get him to renounce his boss. That Schröder still maintains political ties and influence in Germany is inexcusable.
Merkel has been quiet, as a few other German officials have grudgingly admitted their appeasement policy with Putin was wrong. It was worse than that. Projects like Nord Stream 2 were vital lifelines for Putin politically while financing repression and his war machine.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 23
Of the many appeasing & contrary to history and reality pieces I have read during Putin's war of extermination in Ukraine, that by Jeffrey Sachs at CNN is the worst. NATO enlargement is the best *guarantor* of peace, as is obvious by where Putin chooses to invade.
Saying a majority of the world isn't against Putin because Xi Jinping allies with his fellow dictator is pathetic. Sachs' article is all about what the free world should do to make Putin and other dictators happy, when the opposite is the only way to deter their aggression.
Bullies attack when they sense weakness, not when they feel threatened by strength. Putin has never really cared about NATO expansion, it's a red herring that Sachs and other apologists use as frequently as dictators do in their propaganda.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 20
Why is Remnick at the New Yorker publishing Mearscheimer’s morally vacant anti-NATO claptrap? Why give that space to a Putin apologist during a genocide? Was he jealous of Tucker Carlson getting all the airtime on Russian TV?
Ukraine is a sovereign nation, not a disposable buffer state doomed to being enslaved due to geographical misfortune. Unless of course the free world abandons it to Putin, as Mearsheimer would like. Like Putin, he ignores the free will of a free people.
If academics want to play time machine with NATO expansion, ask how many Russian tanks would be in the Baltic capitals right now had they not been admitted. Ask if Putin would have invaded Georgia and Ukraine had they been made NATO members.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19
The war in Ukraine is fast and deadly. Ukraine needs every weapon, now. But the battle to bring real peace is in Russia, where for the first time Putin's cronies & ordinary citizens will finally have to choose between a normal life and Putin.
Propaganda works. Terror works. 22 years of brainwashing, all Russian opposition & civil society destroyed, an entire generation with no concept of a world without Putin. He must go. Putinism must go.
If Russians will not act to save democracy, or to save Ukraine, or to make Russia a part of the civilized world, they must act to save themselves. Sanctions are an ugly tool, but they are not slaughter like Ukraine is facing.
Read 9 tweets

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