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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Mar 3, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This thread is going to discuss what the loss by capture of Russian Army Pantsyr S1/S2 / SA-22 (pictured below), 2S6 Tunguska / SA-19, Osa AKM / SA-8B, Tor M2 / SA-15, Strela 10 / SA-13 means for the Russian invasion of Ukraine going forward. Its bad🧵
1/
...for the Russians and particularly the Russian Air Force.

BTW, that list of captured Russian Army short range air defense (SHORAD) gear comes from this link to all the documented equipment losses in the war to date.
2/
 oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
This is a Russian Army TOR M2 surface-to-air missile complex that was captured intact by Ukrainian farmers.

You can be certain that the Ukrainian SF have showed up with technical experts to rape it's technical information for the UAF.

3/
I am part of a group weblog called Chicagoboyz where I've posted updates on the Latest Russian
Invasion of Ukraine twice.

One of the people in the second post commented on the huge implications for Russian communications security (COMSEC) & Identification Friend or Foe (IFF)
4/ ImageImageImage
Modern IFF is part coded digital radio, part radar and part air traffic control beacon.

Each piece of IFF gear has a list of codes that are used at predetermined & programed intervals.

In wartime these are changed one or more times a day.
5/ ImageImage
The compromise of Russian IFF answers the question everyone have been asking -- "Where is the Russian Air Force."

See:
"The United States estimates that Russia is using just over 75 aircraft in its Ukraine invasion, the senior U.S. official said."

6/
 msn.com/en-gb/news/wor…
The failure to destroy these missile complexes & their abandonment in operational condition means the Ukrainians have both those IFF codes & remote ports into the Russian air defense computer networks.

Short form: Ukraine can hack Russian integrated air defense systems(IADS).7/ Image
This is a Chicagoboyz comment specifically detailing how badly hurt the Russians were by the abandonment of an intact Pantsir air defense vehicle by "Kirk," who is ex-US military & hangs out in the comment sections there:

8/
 chicagoboyz.net/archives/67311…
The Russian sorties after the 3rd day of the war have switched into set piece assaults on to Ukrainian civilian infrastructure after trying to hit Ukrainian mobile forces, particularly in the south.


9/
This would be consistent with a compromised air defense network where the Russians have to do a ponderous "deconfliction" process to make sure Russian ground-to-air missiles don't target their own strike aircraft.

10/
 Image
Additionally, the UAF possession of Russian IFF code settings for the operation means their radars can trigger Russian IFF at extreme distances outside skin-paint radar range for tracking.

In essence, the Ukrainians can engage in aerial "doxing" of Russian aircraft.
11/
The Ukrainian Air Force does not have A-50 AWACS radar tracking planes like the RuAF, but being able to Dox Russian aircraft IFF is almost as good.

12/End Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 21
Nothing says hyperinflation like a ten million currency unit banknote.

The US and Western nations need to be three weeks into planning for relief and stability operations to prevent mass starvation in Iran after the Mullah Regime goes down.

After the Mullah's🧵
1/
The horrid impending humanitarian disaster reality for Iran is the current regime is a dead man walking because of hyperinflation.

Iran lacks the administrative ability to replace the current hyperinflated currency in the traditional manner...

2/
...of a three day closing of the banks and handing out new note for old.

In addition, the close down of the internet for security reasons combined with the striking of Iranian bank data centers means there are no operable credit or debit cards.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 17
The US-Israeli air campaign against Iran is following Warden's "Five Rings" system strategy.

Mullahs & IRGC leaders are inthe dead center of the 5-rings.

The Basij are usually considered "fielded forces" by analysts who don't understand the role of Regime Security Forces in a totalitarian regime.

1/Image
Regime Security Forces live in the "System Essentials" ring of a totalitarian government as they control the communications and information in a totalitarian society as a part of their anti-coup mission.

2/ Image
The fact that any major leadership[ meeting of the IRGC or Basij is catching several smart bombs addresses both of the "inner rings."

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 17
People really don't understand how shutting down the internet has flatlined the Iranian economy.

There are no credit card transactions
No electronic bank transfers
No ATM transactions

1/
All the usual electronic traffic between residential & supermarket banks branches to main branches has to be done by paper, if it is done at all.

You cannot do "Just-in-time" inventory management without the internet.

2/ Image
The Mullah shutdown of the internet as a security measure means the "Velocity of Money" in the Iranian economy has tubed.

This will bring on more of the economic hyper-inflation-food insecurity issues in Iran that set off the Jan 2026 insurrection.

"Dead Regime Walking."
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 15
If Israeli Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones are killing Shaheed-136 launch crews.

They are not killing Basij regime security force checkpoints.

The US-Israeli air forces will need to inflict at _least_ 200K casualties to Iranian regime security forces...
1/3
...for a successful civilian insurrection to have a good chance of success.

Even if there are ~200 checkpoint drone strikes per day inflicting 5 casualties each. That is only 1,000 a day, AKA 200 days.

2/3 Image
BLUF:

US-Israeli airpower has to increase the Regime Security Force casualty rates to ~6,700 a day to end the air campaign in another 30 days.

B-52 & B-1's playing 'loitering bomb trucks' can do that, with less restrictive rules of engagement resulting in collateral damage
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 12
What jumps put for me looking at this report of the Mullah's decamping to Mashad is the US-Israeli intelligence had to know as soon as it started.

I believe that the steaming of the USS Ford through the Suez Canal happened because of this.

Collapse 🧵
1/
If the Mullah's command was moving.

Their ability to command drone and missile strikes on the USS Ford would be minimal, if only to avoid US-Israeli radio-direction finding.

Mashad is also very convenient place to run away from Iran if the government falls everywhere else.
2/ Image
The Mullah's are so afraid of getting the "Maduro Treatment" by US Special Forces in Mashad that they have blocked the local airport runways with cars

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 9
The problem with this thought is the Iranian drones being fired now are the uber sophisticated Russian-guilt Geran using radio mesh and cell phone sim card link video-navigation.

1/3
They are flying lower and more sophisticated trajectories taking advantage of radar shadows from oil infrastructure in the Gulf to prevent the generation of good intercept tracks.

Gun armed ships and attack helicopters low amongst oil rigs are the best play here.

2/3
It is only a matter of time until Geran/Shaheed FPV motherships are being fired by the IRGC at Gulf Oil infrastructure using Gulf Cell phone networks as video data links.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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