Thread by @PalmerReport

1) Lots of people are yelling “This is going to end up a world war anyway, so let’s just start one.” But that presumes there’s a 100% chance this will end in world war, which is wildly wrong. For instance, the oligarchs or Russian military could end up taking Putin out.

2) Do you want to do World War III, where most of all of us die, and then it turns out it was for nothing because Russian insiders were going to take out Putin the next day anyway? Does this sound like a smart idea to you?

3) There are so many smarter and safer avenues for ending this mess than “let’s attack Russia and all die in World War III.” Then again, given that starting World War III is literally the dumbest idea in the history of mankind, of course there are far better strategies.

4) What we’re seeing, understandably, is people around the world feeling so much fear and frustration at the small but realistic chance we’ll end up in World War III, they’re saying “let’s just get it over with.” The comfort of at least knowing you’ll die soon. No more wondering.

5) But while the desire to choose certain demise over potentiometer demise is understandable given the circumstances, it’s also obviously insane, and suicidally so. It’s the kind of insane thinking that, if listened to, would guarantee the worst possible outcome.

6) Then again, in any given situation, the “DO SOMETHING!” crowd usually does suggest things that would guarantee the worst possible outcome. It’s why the “DO SOMETHING!” crowd should never be anywhere near leadership positions, and actual leaders should ignore these types.

7) Throw in the sheer number of asshole pundits who are trying to get TV bookings by absurdly insisting we’re already in World War III, and the general hysteria gets even worse. Hint: World War III will involve nuclear weapons. If no one is nuking anyone, it’s not World War III.

8) As long as there’s a viable path for repelling Putin’s military, crushing his economy, and motivating Russia to overthrow him, of course you go that route. It’s the route where most people live. The “screw it, let’s start World War III” path is the one where everybody dies.

9) And no, we’re not “cowering” go Putin with this approach. We’re literally trying to twist arms such that his own people take him out. That’s not cowering to him; he dies in this scenario.

10) Now, if we get a bit further into this and it looks less likely that our current approach is going to result in the Russians ousting Putin, then we may have to try incrementally riskier moves. Smart leaders always revise their plans accordingly as new information comes in.

11) But make no mistake: pressuring the Russians into taking Putin down from within is likely the ONLY way this ends well (or even decently) for the world. That’s the goal. Tweak the strategy as we go, but that’s the goal.

12) If we end up having to make the risky move of NATO bombing the Russian military as part of that strategy, then so be it.

But that’s a far cry from succumbing to the logical fallacy of “Let’s not worry about consequences because we’re all about to die anyway.” That’s suicide.

13) We’re arming Ukraine to the teeth, were giving Ukraine real time intel, and will continue doing so. Sending in US/NATO troops wouldn’t necessarily improve Ukraine’s odds. Nor would bombing Moscow. It would just escalate things in unpredictable fashion, possibly for no gain.

14) The best way to deal with this is to have adult conversations about the pros, cons, and consequences of any given move. But that gets drowned out when people start yelling out magic wand ideas (that are actually terrible), and bashing their own leaders for not acting on them.

15) There have always been dummies yelling out magic wand ideas in every situation, but usually at the end of the local bar. The most horrifying aspect of the social media era is that it’s turned the loudmouth idiots at the end of the bar into popular political pundits.

16) On social media, the dumbest idea always wins.