The more I look at the numbers, the more I believe the 2024 House majority is going to be mainly decided in California. Yes, California. There are five "toss up" House districts in suburban pockets of California that can go either way. GET INVOLVED in these five races:
CA-45 (California), Democratic candidate Derek Tran
As I warned you would happen, CNN, Daily Beast, and Politico have all now floated “Kamala is doomed” narratives today, all based on nothing at all beyond the media’s desire to shake up the narrative and juice ratings. The media will keep trying to do this next week. Ignore them.
“But how can the media get it so wrong?”
They’re getting it wrong on purpose. That’s the entire point. Major political media outlets exist to drive ratings, not to inform you. If ratings drop a bit, the media decides what to make up in order to boost ratings. Simple as that.
Oct 5 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Heads up: the media is spending this weekend trying out a new narrative about how Kamala is supposedly going to lose because polling says most Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction. Your job is to not fall for it, and to focus on doing what’s needed to win.
In reality, it’s obvious why most Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction. Republicans don’t like what’s happening, and Democrats think the country is still being dragged into the muck by Trump and supporters, so everyone agrees were not on track.
Sep 6 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Great news! House Democrat Marcy Kaptur's reelection race has been changed from "Toss up" to Lean Democrat! We've been fundraising for her, and now she's pulled ahead.
Two other races have also been upgraded from "Lean Republican" to "Toss up." What's what that means:
Democratic candidates Tony Vargas (Nebraska 2nd) and Derek Tran (California 45th) were both mild underdogs. But now their races are 50-50 toss ups. We've added them both to our master list of toss-up races, and Charles Gaba has added them to the ActBlue donation page.
Aug 26 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
What is Gaba's Endgame? Fundraising Guru Charles Gaba, who helped flip the Michigan state legislature in 2022, has identified the most competitive House and state legislature races in 2024 and assembled them into ActBlue donation pages so we can flip everything. Important thread:
According to the "Gaba's Endgame" strategy, there are just twenty super-competitive House races, and you can donate to all twenty just by making one donation to this ActBlue page. All money goes directly to the Democratic candidates listed: secure.actblue.com/donate/houseto…
Aug 24 • 18 tweets • 2 min read
UPDATE: We've raised more than $6,000 for Democrats in competitive state legislature races! Here are our totals:
Alaska to Florida: $1,214
Georgia to Maine: $436
Michigan to Montana: $3,053
Nevada to Oklahoma: $100
Pennsylvania to Wyoming: $1740
Let's take this amazing level of enthusiasm and work effort for Kamala Harris and apply it to congressional races so that President Harris will have a majority to work with. These are the seven most competitive Senate races. Get involved in one or more of these races today:
Montana, Democratic Senator Jon Tester
We're not just going to elect Kamala Harris as the 47th President. We're going to give her a House and Senate majority as well. Here are the 22 most competitive House races, which will decide the House majority. Donate, volunteer, and retweet all day long:
MI-07 (Michigan), Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel
I’m 100% Team Biden. Joe is our nominee and he’s going to win.
At the same time, we need to give Biden the House and Senate majorities. That means supporting the Democrats in toss-up races, whether they’re Team Biden or not. It’s just how it is. All I care about is winning.
Much as I understand the sentiment, we can’t afford to say “well I’m not going to support that Democratic candidate because he’s not Team Biden.” If we take that attitude, we WILL lose the House and Senate.
Jul 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Actual CNN headline today: “Shakeups in the 2024 race provide much-needed jolt in interest for news outlets.”
The media is flat out bragging that it’s managed to boost its ratings by manufacturing phony storylines in this election.
The media is not your friend.
The kicker is that even this headline is dishonest, as ratings are actually down since the media started pretending Biden is in trouble.
But the media is counting on you coming back in a week or a month and staying glued to your screen for the remainder of the election.
Jul 7 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Don't trust any leaks from the media about this or that House or Senate Democrat having supposedly privately turned against Biden. Given how much the media is just making shit up these days in furtherance of this fake storyline, why would we believe anything they say about it?
I keep seeing major news outlets cite anonymous sources while claiming that "House Democrat XX privately thinks Biden should drop out" and then folks on our side say "now we hate XX."
Yet XX probably never said any such thing.Don't let the lying media turn us against ourselves.
May 31 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Remember when a media outlet falsely claimed that Alvin Bragg had dropped this case, and Bragg said it was ongoing, but the entire media went along with the lie, and then every bullshitter on Twitter bashed Bragg so they could make themselves look cool in comparison? Fun times.
These hordes of bullshitters in the media and pundit class were all claiming Pomerantz had said that Bragg had decided to let Trump off the hook, when Pomerantz never even said that. It was just flat out made up fake news. And it didn’t matter Bragg said the case was ongoing.
May 29 • 22 tweets • 14 min read
While we're waiting for the Trump verdict, let's go flip the House. The majority WILL be mainly decided by the "toss up" races, all of which will be very close.Donate, volunteer, and retweet these Democratic candidates and let's go win this:
MI-07 (Michigan), Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel
Here are the highly competitive 2024 House races that are rated "toss up" and will be decided by a point or two in either direction and will determine the House majority. Donate to them, sign up for their mailing lists, follow them on here, and retweet them (thread):
Janelle Bynum, OR-05 (Oregon)
This is the part where everyone on TV and Twitter chases ratings and retweets by pretending Trump has a 99% or 100% chance of winning this Supreme Court ruling, when he really only has maybe a 30% chance. They know if he loses, they can just feed you some new defeatist outrage.
"But even if Trump loses, he'll still have won because things got delayed until now!"
"But even if we win 5-4, it'll still be a loss because it should have been 9-0!"
I say this with love: shut the fuck up.
A win is a win. Only people who WANT TO LOSE spin wins into losses.
Apr 10 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
MSNBC spent all that time pretending Trump would never go on trial. Now that Trump’s first criminal trial is starting, MSNBC is putting discredited prisoner Michael Avenatti on the air and letting him lie about the trial. MSNBC exists solely to bullshit you into staying tuned in.
The problem isn’t simply that MSNBC is corrupt. The problem is that the cable news format doesn’t work. There aren’t 24 hours of political news a day. Some days there aren’t 24 minutes. So in order to keep you tuned in and keep the lights on, they have to bullshit you.
Mar 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I said there was a chance Trump might get lucky with the bond. So be it. This ruling isn’t going to save him from his overall downfall. For that matter he still might not be able to come up with the bond. He’s broke, senile, and his first criminal trial is in 3 weeks. He’s toast.
This is not “optimism.”
In spite of what some of you think, it’s not my job or my intent to “give you hope.”
I’m just trying to call it like it is.
Today was a rare win for Trump, but only an incremental one.
He’s still on a sharply downward trajectory overall. That’s a fact.
Mar 17 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Trump spends his entire speech sounding senile, giving us soundbites we can use to convince persuadable voters that he has dementia. Yet all we can talk about is "oh no, he said the word bloodbath, there'll be a civil war, we're doomed!" We're only helping Trump with this talk.
The entire reason Trump's handlers have him up there using words like "bloodbath" is to distract everyone from his senility. And it's working. Because we always tepidly and gullibly take the bait whenever Trump suggests he's magically able to overthrow the government.
Mar 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The "intel briefings" that Trump would get as the nominee would be pedestrian info. Nothing like what a President would get. It wouldn't be anything he could sell or use to his advantage. This is all an imaginary doomsday scenario being hyped for ratings. Stop fretting over it.
Besides, Trump got actual presidential intel briefings every day for four years. And then he stole a bunch of top secret classified information and read it in the bathroom.
There's nothing in his "nominee briefings" that would play on the level of the secrets he already knows.
