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Political analysis ahead of the curve.
Lenny Marlow Profile picture AreWeStillinAmerica?💙💛💜 Profile picture NWAutodidactCindiWafstet Profile picture eDo Profile picture Liz Profile picture 283 added to My Authors
Jul 1 5 tweets 1 min read
1/6 committee seemed to be taking a big risk by holding a last minute hearing with a surprise witness who turned out to be a name no one even knew. But her testimony moved the needle more than anything else has to date. Not so risky in hindsight. They knew what they were doing. Per the LA Times, 13 million people tuned in – for a daytime weekday hearing on last minute notice. So the hype worked in terms of bringing in eyeballs. And nearly all observers would agree that the payoff more than matched the hype.
Jun 30 9 tweets 2 min read
Why is the Supreme Court acting with such abandon? Two possibilities come to mind:

1) They're deluded enough to think there won't be pushback

2) They fear Clarence could resign to protect his wife, they're worried about losing the majority, so they're going as fast as they can Neither of these is good. Bad people who are insane enough to think they're invincible, and bad people who fear they're about to lose power anyway, are equally dangerous.
Jun 30 6 tweets 1 min read
If you keep saying "the Democrats' messaging is bad," then YOU are the problem. Are you trying to help the Democrats by amplifying their messaging, or making specific suggestions? Nope, you're just trying to position yourself as superior to the Democrats, which makes you useless. First of all, the Democrats are actually quite savvy at messaging. The people who whine about the Democrats' supposed "messaging problem" are typically either people who can't be bothered to pay attention to the Democrats' messaging, or who don't understand how messaging works.
Jun 30 9 tweets 2 min read
The New York Times says the DOJ was "astonished" by Hutchinson's testimony. So why didn't they just go get her testimony themselves? Sounds like Trump was paying for her attorney, until she very recently changed attorneys and decided to give her full story to the 1/6 committee. Hutchinson has reportedly been giving private testimony to the committee for months – but nothing like what she ended up publicly giving. She certainly wasn't going to give any information to the DOJ that she wasn't giving to the committee at the time.
Jun 30 4 tweets 1 min read
Here's the reality. You can work WITH the Democrats on things like pressuring Manchin and Sinema, and work with the Democrats to get more of them elected in the midterms...

– OR – can sit back and whine about the Democrats, which will hand more power to the Republicans. If you're whining about the Democrats all day, you're TRYING to lose the midterms. You're TRYING to give far more power to the Republicans. You're TRYING to end our democracy. You may not understand that's what you're doing, but that's what you're doing.
Jun 30 6 tweets 1 min read
Two things the DOJ clearly knows, based on its charging patterns:

1) It's always easier to get a conviction for underlying crimes if there's a money trail.

2) With the right evidence, it's very easy to get convictions on process crimes like perjury, obstruction, and tampering. It's not a crime to pay for someone's attorney. But it is a crime to pay for their attorney AND tell them how to testify. Which is apparently what Trump did.
Jun 30 5 tweets 1 min read
Liberal Twitter pundits are competing with each other to insist the most loudly that there's nothing we can do to pressure Manchin and Sinema. Bullshit. When we applied consistent pressure, we got them to cave on $2 billion in infrastructure. They do cave when they're afraid. Even if the defeatist pundits were right about this – and they're not, but even if they were – how would they be helping by telling us to just give up? These types are only ever looking to manipulate your fear and angst into retweets and TV bookings, not to make anything better.
Jun 30 5 tweets 1 min read
I love that prominent right wingers are suddenly pushing DeSantis 2024. The one thing about Republican presidential candidates is that if they peak too early, they melt under the resulting scrutiny and come crashing down. This kind of scrutiny could even cost DeSantis in 2022. The list of recent Republican presidential candidates who were hyped too early in the cycle by right wingers, then fell apart under the resulting media scrutiny, is a very long one: Santorum, Nikki Haley, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson on and on. Once out front, they just melt.
Jun 30 4 tweets 1 min read
Some Kentucky newspaper is reporting that Biden has cut a secret deal with McConnell to appoint an anti-abortion federal judge in Kentucky. This story is BULLSHIT. There aren’t even any vacancies in Kentucky. And McConnell is obviously the one who leaked the fake story. McConnell obviously leaked this fake story to his local newspaper, on the day Biden has officially put the first Black woman on the supreme court, and on the day Biden is endorsing bypassing the filibuster to codify Roe v. Wade, because McConnell wants to turn us against Biden.
Jun 30 5 tweets 1 min read
Multiple major news outlets spent all week reporting, not just predicting but REPORTING, that Biden would not endorse any structural changes to revive Roe v. Wade. But today, Biden endorsed structural changes. So was the media just making up these stories and sources? Obviously, no one anywhere near Joe Biden told anyone in the media that Biden wasn’t going to endorse these changes. So even if the media did have “sources” saying Biden wouldn’t, who would these sources be? The guy who delivered a pizza to the White House this week?
Jun 30 10 tweets 3 min read
1) There are two new polls. One of them has Senator Warnock up ten points over Herschel Walker. The other has them tied. Obviously, at least one of these polls is wrong. But the polls aren’t the problem. The problem is when the media only reports one poll or the other, not both. 2) If you only report the one poll, audiences will think Warnock is on track for a blowout and the race is over. If you only report the other poll, audiences will think Warnock is in trouble, being merely tied as an incumbent. But neither portrayal is accurate.
Jun 30 8 tweets 2 min read
Stop acting like Liz Cheney is the only one on the committee who knows how strategy and messaging work. The Democrats are damn good at strategy and messaging. They just get no help from liberal media outlets and pundits, who would rather chase ratings by bashing the Democrats. The Democrats on the committee are, smartly, letting Cheney throw some of the ugliest daggers. But that's because they know the average nonpolitical viewer will be more accepting of her attacks against Trump's Republican allies, because she's famously also a Republican.
Jun 30 4 tweets 1 min read
The pundits saying "1/6 committee should have subpoenaed Pat Cipollone a year ago" have no understanding of how anything works. If they'd done it a year ago, he would have felt no public pressure to comply, and he'd STILL be dragging it out in court. They'd NEVER have gotten him. But by painstakingly working their way to landing a witness like Hutchinson, whose testimony has put huge public pressure on Cipollone, today's well timed subpoena now has a good chance of getting Cipollone to decide to actually testify.
Jun 30 29 tweets 5 min read
1) Ever since the DOJ rounded up the entire Oath Keepers leadership in January and flipped one of them against Trump world, then launched a 1/6 grand jury into Trump world, it's been fairly clear that the DOJ's goal was to charge Donald Trump if it could flip people against him. 2) For the past six months, my only question has been whether the DOJ was succeeding in lining up sufficient witnesses. For instance, flipping an Oath Keeper against Roger Stone was great news, but would it prompt Stone to flip on Trump?
Jun 29 6 tweets 1 min read
The 1/6 committee just subpoenaed Pat Cipollone to testify. He had been open to publicly testifying but had been dragging his feet. These things are all about timing. If he’d been subpoenaed sooner, he might have fought it for a year. But at this point he’s more likely to comply. This is yet another example of how making the “swiftest” or most “aggressive” move does not generally translate to the most successful outcome. When a witness has the option to stall in court indefinitely, you have to find different leverage against him.
Jun 29 6 tweets 1 min read
Trump took a Secret Service agent named Tony Ornato and made him White House deputy chief of staff. What a bizarre move. Trump wouldn't have done something like that unless he expected Ornato would be more loyal to him than to the United States. This does NOT mean that Ornato committed any crimes or did anything illegal for Trump. But it does cast serious doubt on Ornato's legitimacy as a witness. Why did Trump give a Secret Service agent a White House senior staff job? Why did he accept?
Jun 29 9 tweets 2 min read
Hate to poke holes in yet another magic wand idea, but there is no way they'd get a guilty verdict against any Supreme Court Justices for lying under oath during confirmation about how they viewed Roe v. Wade. Any trial jury would acquit them based on reasonable doubt. All they'd have to do at trial is argue that something changed their minds; God came to them in a vision one night and told them to vote a certain way. The jury would know it was very likely a lie, but would still see it as reasonable doubt. Pretty obvious how it would go.
Jun 29 6 tweets 2 min read
We keep hearing that Trump's election overthrow plot nearly worked because he knew what vulnerabilities to exploit. But if that were true, how come his plan failed embarrassingly on every front? In reality he had no idea what he was doing and it was all just random desperation. We also keep hearing that although Trump failed, he created a blueprint to be used again next time. Bullshit. All he did was prove that all of his ideas for overthrowing the election were non-viable nonsense.
Jun 29 7 tweets 2 min read
1) If Ginni Thomas refuses to voluntarily testify, the 1/6 committee should subpoena her. But if she doesn’t want to testify, she can drag the subpoena out in court for probably a year or more. There is no magic wand for getting her to promptly testify if she doesn’t want to. 2) Further, subpoenaing Thomas today, as compared to next week, or last week, won’t really impact the timeline, if she doesn’t want to testify. The chants of “subpoena her RIGHT NOW!!” may be well meaning, but are based on a mistaken belief that subpoenas are instant magic wands.
Jun 28 7 tweets 2 min read
MSNBC is still pushing this laugh out loud fictional narrative that Merrick Garland is hiding under his desk, afraid to prosecute Trump, and feeling pressure to find some courage. There is LITERALLY NOTHING to support this whacked out, asinine, obviously false narrative. This kind of thinking is hallucinatory to the point of almost being mentally ill. No mentally sound person could EVER think that the Attorney General and Department of Justice operate this way. But the media has brainwashed people into believing this gibberish.
Jun 28 5 tweets 1 min read
Even Fox News is now basically admitting Trump’s guilt. Not a surprise. Fox exists to make money. To do that, it has to maintain relative credibility with its audience members, who are now seeing this truly damning stuff elsewhere as it goes viral. At a corporate level, Fox News cares nothing about someone like Trump, and only cares about keeping its audience intact. As of today, even its audience is going to be expecting some feint acknowledgment of Trump’s berserk crime spree.