Why today’s attack on the Ukraine nuclear power plant is nothing like Chernobyl 🧵
News of Russia shelling Europe's largest atomic plant sent shudders around the world. But there are a myriad of reasons why it's unlikely to result in an atomic disaster
While Ukrainain Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned of a disaster “10 times larger” than Chernobyl when a fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia plant, analysts and specialists I spoke to throughout the morning said that was unlikely
📌 First off, what happened?
A fire had broken out at the Zaporizhzhia plant in southeastern Ukraine after Russian shelling overnight (the fire has since been contained)
The facility -- near the city of Enerhodar, about 500 km from Chernobyl -- has a total capacity of 5.7 GW
📌 Is a disaster likely?
There’s little reason so far to think so
Ukraine said the fire “has not affected ‘essential’ equipment,” and there had been no change in radiation levels
The reactors are “being protected by robust containment structures,” said US Energy Secretary
📌 How does the plant compare to Chernobyl?
The nuclear reactors at Zaporizhzhia are of a different design (pressurized water reactors), with a containment shell, and have since been upgraded to new regulations
The reactors are designed to withstand an aircraft crash
📌 What about a disaster like Fukushima?
Unlike the Fukushima plant in Japan, these VVER reactors at Zaporizhzhia have separate water circuits to cool the reactor and to produce steam
They have emergency core cooling systems and multiple injection systems to prevent a core melt
📌 What about a meltdown?
As long as there is power (or backup generators) to keep the fuel rods cool, then it won’t spiral into a meltdown
Multiple backup cooling systems are available and operators have been trained to be able to withstand plausible situations
📌 So are there any risks?
This is the first time nuclear reactors have been operating within a warzone. No doubt, there are risks
It's just that the risk of a nuclear accident the scale of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster is unlikely, according to analysts
📌 What are the risks? (1)
If Russian forces knock out power at the facility, and destroy backup diesel generators, then the atomic plant operator may struggle to keep the fuel rods cooled
There is concern that diesel storage for the diesel generators could be attacked
📌 What are the risks? (2)
If spent nuclear fuel is stored in pools on site, an attack might drain the cooling fluid and cause the fuel to melt, releasing large amounts of radioactivity, according to James Acton, a co-director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
📌 What are the risks? (3)
And should fires that have broken out after the shelling breach the containment structure surrounding pressurized water reactors, there could be a risk of radiation releasing out into the air, said BNEF's Chris Gadomski
📌 And why all this panic?
In the 1986 accident at Chernobyl in Ukraine, then part of the USSR, 350k people had to be evacuated and dozens of workers died of radiation poisoning
More than 30 years later, there are still reports of high levels of radiation in local produce
📌 What's the latest?
Russian forces now occupy the nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine
The blaze at the reactor is extinguished, and there appears no damage to the reactor
North Asia’s liquefied natural gas spot price surged to a record 🚨
🚢 Russian supply concerns intensified competition between Asia and Europe for available supply of the super-chilled fuel
📈 JKM LNG rose to nearly $60/mmbtu, doubling in the last week
“Panic spread through the international gas markets over supply availability due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” according to S&P Global Commodity Insights
Brent oil surged above $110 a barrel for the first time since 2014 🛢️📈
⚠️IEA warned that global energy security is under threat following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
⚠️Global oil market was already tightening significantly prior to the invasion
Shell announced that it will exit from equity partnerships with Russia’s Gazprom 🇷🇺 🚨
That includes its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas export facility 🚢
Shell is the latest western company to exit Russian investments amid the Ukraine conflict 👋
Shell will exit from the following projects:
>> Sakhalin-2 LNG export plant
Shell has a 27.5 percent interest in
>> Salym petroleum development
>> Nord Stream 2 pipeline
>> Gydan energy development
The ball is now in the court of Japanese partners at Sakhalin II — will Mitsubishi and Mitsui be put under pressure to exit as well? 🇯🇵
Sakhalin is a key plant for Japan, providing nearly 8% of deliveries