Thread by @uk_domain_names

A few thoughts about the EU, Ukraine and UK

The war in Ukraine is a sad and shocking catalyst that is transforming the EU. It is almost unrecognisable from the institution so many derided for its hidebound decision-making processes. Will that stick? Some of it inevitably will.

There is likely to be further EU integration, in sentiment and practice. The more its members work together, the stronger they are collectively.

At the same time, euroscepticism within the EU is likely to be weakened and remain affected. Not gone, but reappraised.

Will Ukraine be admitted as a member? That will depend on the war being won first. Beyond that, it's easy to see their candidacy getting strong support, harder to imagine the process can be speeded up to less than 5 years minimum (that feels optimistic, rather than realistic).

The EU may push faster towards transferring more decision-making from unanimous consent to qualified majority voting. With a potentially antagonistic Russia in the picture long-term, they don't want individual member states to stall or block initiatives nearly all favour.

It's not a given, because the EU is stuck in the same way as the UK is over FPTP: those who benefit from the system have the power to block the change, by the very nature of the existing system.

So it won't be quick or easy, but there's a greater chance of it happening now.

If the EU does reform in this way, it would be one less concern for them if the UK were to rejoin.

We would no longer be able to resume our historic role as sea anchor, all too often the lone voice stalling initiatives. The collective EU will could out-vote us.

A consequence of that might be hardening of core euroscepticism in the UK. The line about being dictated to by Brussels would be truer then than in the past.

But we can't dismiss the British population's intelligence. What is happening in Ukraine is being absorbed and digested.

Many, many people are seeing the EU stepping up where our own government is dragging its feet.

With every passing day, the anger at our failure to pursue oligarchs and sanctions, and to properly help desperate refugees is growing.

People know that's the Tories' doing.

So the mood of the country as a whole is likely to soften towards the EU, even as the hardcore eurosceptics deepen their distrust or even hatred of it.

That will make for uncomfortable, painful dialogues, more polarised than ever. Culture war on steroids fanned by the RW press.

But beyond the shouting and invective, there is likely to be ever-growing support for the idea of forging closer ties to the EU, and even rejoining. The angry minority can foam more than ever, but they are a diminishing group.

On Brexit, the always nonsensical plan of a Pacific pivot never looked hollower. The idea that we can keep turning our backs on the countries that provide a vital protective zone between us and Russia just feels absurd.

But the Tories are masters at opposing change, so we wait.

We wait for the penny to drop.

It is falling. Very slowly. But it is falling.

And as the terrible war drags on and the gulf between a newly flexible EU and a posturing but ineffectual UK widens, that fall will accelerate.

The EU can be a superpower if its members decide to forge it. In the new uncertainty, that notion may become more and more appealing.

Finally, looking forward, it's good to hold onto the hope that Ukraine will be in the family of EU nations welcoming us back into the fold.

/END