⦿ Most major indices (including Nifty, CNX500, Midcap, Smallcap) stay in downtrend.
⦿ Auto & Realty join the red list this week
⦿ Metals, PSUbank, Power & Energy stay in uptrend under pressure.
Momentum
⦿ No index is having positive momentum
⦿ Most indices (including Nifty, CNX500, Midcap, Smallcap) are showing negative & worsening momentum
⦿ Only Energy, IT, Metal & PSE are having negative but improving momentum
⦿ 9% → 14% above 20 SMA (oversold)
⦿ 12% → 13% above 50 SMA (oversold)
⦿ 30% → 31% above 150 SMA (bearish bias)
⦿ 36% → 37% above 200 SMA (bearish bias)
% of stocks above/below 20& 50MA
⦿ The Ratio between stocks above & below 50MA is now 0.17, while that for 20MA is 0.17.
⦿ The 10-day cumulative ratio for stocks above 50MA is 0.15.
⦿ A value >2 is good for swing trades on the long side.
20% up/down in 5 days
The number of stocks up 20% in past 5 days is back to being greater than those down 20% in 5 days. Such brief bullish upthrusts are trading oppurtunites in the very short-term.
Stockbee Market Monitor
On a modified Stockbee market monitor, number of stocks 25% plus quarter stays less than 25% down quarter for second consecutive week.
Both 13% up in 34 days, & up 25% up in a month have stayed red, which shows bearish phase in shorter-term as well.
Primary Breadth Ratio
Overall, the market is bearish, as the number of stocks up 25% plus in a quarter is less than that down 25% plus in a quarter.
The ratio between the two is the primary breadth ratio, which is now less than 1.
That’s all for this week. If you'd like to read this as a newsletter, find it here:
The simplest way to judge if we're in a bear or a bull market is via the % of stocks above 200-day MA.
% of stocks above 200 MA sustaining for at least a month above 50 → Bull Market
% of stocks above 200 MA sustaining for at least a month below 50 → Bear Market
A thread 🧵
2018-2020
A ‘clean’ example of a bear market is from the period between Feb 2018 to Aug 2020, where the % of stocks above 200-day MA stayed below 50 levels almost throughout:
2020-2022
A ‘clean’ example of a bull market is from the period Aug 2020 to May 2022, where the % of stocks above 200-day MA stayed above 50 levels almost throughout:
EEC is simply a high probability of reporting blockbuster results in the upcoming quarter, worthy of news headlines, leading to more inflows of liquidity.
The concept of EEC was explained in the book ‘Insider Buy Superstocks’ by Jesse Stine.
What is an Earnings Comparison?
An earnings comparison looks at a company’s earnings (or sales) from one quarter to the same quarter in the previous year. This is called an Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison.
For example, if a company had an EPS of 5.2 last year and this rises to 12.6 this year, that's a 140% increase.
Why Do Easy Earnings Comparisons Matter?
Let’s say the company posted an EPS of 12.6 again next quarter, but last year it had an EPS of 14.9 in that same quarter.
Even though the company is still making money, the YoY comparison shows a decline, which might not impress investors.
Entry (23-May-23): First pullback to the 20-day MA.
Exit (24-May-23): Exited in the backdrop of Nifty making something like an evening star, & the trade having no cushion.
Entry (06-Apr-23): Entered as price seemed to breakout of a multi-touch descending trendline.
Exit (11-Apr-23): Exited as SL got hit. Within a week, the price recovered & was back at the same levels, giving another opportunity that was not… https://t.co/s952z71rJKtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
I have a very simple method for swing trading in cash stocks.
With a Tradingview script at the end, here is a thread🧵 on my Simple Swing strategy: 👇
The Simple Swing indicator is based on T3 Moving Average, which was first described by Tim Tillson, in the search for a “perfect” moving average.
The T3MA incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than common MA & with a smaller lag.
During most of the time in a trend, price will stay well away from the T3MA. Thus, a decisive close beyond the T3MA often indicates the end of a trend.