Let's call out BS when we see it. The administration said today regarding the US halting their purchase of Russian oil: "Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas could drive prices up to Putin's benefit."

Uhhh, No.
The only way halting the purchase of Russian oil would raise oil prices is if that Russian oil does NOT get bought by someone else. My hunch is that, effectively, all of it would be bought by someone else and it would have no effect on oil prices or R. But we should still do it.
But, let's suppose some of it wasn't bought by others, and that drove the price of oil up. Why do we know Russia would be worse off? Because if they were made better off by selling less of their oil, THEY WOULD SELL LESS OF THEIR OIL ON THEIR OWN!!
Revealed preference is strong. If they want to sell that oil and all of a sudden cannot, then we can safely say they are made worse off. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineWar #Ukraine #RussianOil

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More from @KnittelMIT

Mar 7
High oil prices suck. I know. With that said I see a lot of misinformation regarding how oil markets work, our production, Russia's production, etc. Perhaps this will help people sort through the noise.
1. The first thing to know about oil is that it is set on a GLOBAL market. What does that mean? That means there is, effectively, one price. So, any supply disruption, anywhere, affects that price and therefore prices in the US.
Even if we produced 2x what we consumed, if there is a war that raises oil prices in EU, the price in the US will rise. So, if someone claims that increasing our production will insulate us from oil P shocks like we are seeing now, they don't know what they are talking abt. Sorry
Read 12 tweets
Feb 16, 2021
In our partisan world, I guess I shouldn't be surprised of the misinformation that is spreading like mad about the situation in TX. Yes, wind turbines that are frozen. No, this isn't the only cause of the outages and high prices. And no, this isn't a "renewables problem".
First, windmills can actually operate down to -30 degrees (see Sweden, Norway, Denmark, etc). Texas chose not to install the necessary equipment probably because it made sense not to invest in something that would be used once every 10-20 years.
Second, there has actually been a LARGER drop in NG, coal and nuclear generation than in wind generation. The NG side of things is due to the fact that we use NG for heating. So when it's cold there is a fight for the NG between heating and electricity.
Read 13 tweets

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