The problem of nuclear blackmail is not a trivial one. It occupied the thought of early Cold War theorists like Herman Kahn. And with more players, if one grows desperate, the dynamics could become unstable. warontherocks.com/2017/02/blackm…
@NarangVipin has a new book out on an allied topic: how do states acquire nukes?
1) sprinters: get it fast, like China 2) hedgers: keep the option, like Japan 3) sheltered pursuit: use support of a patron, like North Korea 4) hiders: totally clandestine, like South Africa
The topics are related because in the event a desperate Putin decides to (say) nuke an iceberg to show he is serious, then a number of countries that were previously on the cusp of going nuclear may do so to deter him from trying something.
Just like Germany deciding to rearm.
It’s sci-fi, but I keep coming back to one thought: you can’t nuke a network.
Indeed, this was one of the early reasons to build the Internet: a system that was robust to nuclear attack.
Physical decentralization of the state itself may be a necessary security measure.
We take for granted the fact that we can see nation states on a map, that the borders are visible.
We don’t think too much about the fact that we cannot easily see networks on a map, that the borders are largely invisible.
If we put these ideas together, the concept of a physically distributed network state with private membership may provide security against a variety of physical attacks.
You can’t hit it all at once. And you can’t hit what you can’t see.
The US is a nation of emigrants. There’s nothing more American than leaving your home in search of a better life. Sometimes that means fleeing war and oppression. Sometimes it just means leaving a sclerotic economy behind. But there must always be an exit.
Best case outcome?
- Ukraine & Russia agree to cease-fire
- Ukraine says they won't join NATO (they don't need it, clearly)
- Putin gets to declare a "win", pulls back
- Nuclear crisis averted
- Then, @navalny allies with @VitalikButerin to win a real election and rebuild Russia
I'm serious on the last bit. It must be a fair election, or else it'll feel like US regime change.
But as an idealist, the Russian people & world deserve better than Putin. And as a realist, it's a security threat to leave their economy like this:
Winning the war is also about winning the peace. The Russian people won't want a repeat of Yeltsin. That's why many supported Putin. But a free & fair election (perhaps monitored by neutral observers) where they vote out Putin & vote in Navalny + Vitalik? That'd be an upgrade.
This is a financial neutron bomb. Bankrupts people without blowing up buildings. Hits all 145M Russians at once, every ruble holder. In a maximalist scenario, possible collapse of the Russian economy.
If these (unconfirmed) visuals are real — as seems plausible given the news — it’s the complete opposite of what Putin may have contemplated in terms of a “limited” intervention like Georgia 2008 or Crimea 2014.
This is now something every Russian is harmed by. They’ll be angry.
I don’t know how bad it gets. Maybe the purported ~$240B they have left is enough to keep the Russian economy from collapsing. Maybe China extends them a special Belt and Road deal, a $100B credit facility in return for rights in the Russian Far East.