Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 10: Today saw Russian forces transition to another operational pause. It is likely this period will be used to consolidate gains, redistribute forces, and integrate new resources that have arrived in theater. #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineRussiawar

2/ I have made significant adjustments to the overall theater chart. This graphic has been enlarged and now depicts known locations of Belarusian units, major lines of communication in the west, NATO troop locations, supply hubs, and the general forward line of troops.

3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, little activity in this area of operations today. The Hostomel area remains heavily contested. Of note is some ONIST reporting of improved air-ground integration between Russian ground forces and attack helicopters.

4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, almost no activity in this area today. Russian forces continued limited strikes of Chernihiv. Russian forces are 25km from the center of Kyiv in the east, they will need more troops to advance further.

5/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, this is becoming the most critical area for Ukraine. Russian gains in north Luhansk increase the likelihood of breaking the stalemate before Kharkiv.

6/ Reports of a Ukrainian counterattack to the northwest of Kyiv reaching the border may be of great significance if substantiated and it is having the ability to retain these gains. It this indeed has occurred then the logistics hub at Belogrod is in danger of being attacked.

7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, the situation in Mariupol continues to worsen. It is likely that Ukrainian forces in the city will not be able to hold out much longer. Expect to see increased preparation to defend Odesa.

8/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russians appear to be settling into an operational tempo of 5-6 days of sustained combat followed by a 24-48 pause to refit and reorganize. Setting a pace like this has risks and benefits, and opportunities for Ukraine to exploit.

9/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military still controls key points of communication and continues to be able to contest control of its airspace with Russian Aerospace forces. Despite foreign aid, attrition will eventual ground the Ukrainian Aur Force.

10/ There are various sources for current casualty projections. they generally do not agree, as they reflect wildly different numbers. I am including what is being reported by the Russians and Ukrainians for clarities sake.

11/ Though these casualty figures are most likely not accurate and will definitely change over time, what they do bring illumination to is the brutality of modern high-intensity combat between large-scale armed forces.

12/ High-intensity combat is a meat grinder for both people and material. Combat chews up resources faster than anyone can truly replace. Whatever the final accounting, the casualty figures for this war will be horrendous.

13/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.