1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 10: Today saw Russian forces transition to another operational pause. It is likely this period will be used to consolidate gains, redistribute forces, and integrate new resources that have arrived in theater. #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineRussiawar Image
2/ I have made significant adjustments to the overall theater chart. This graphic has been enlarged and now depicts known locations of Belarusian units, major lines of communication in the west, NATO troop locations, supply hubs, and the general forward line of troops.
3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, little activity in this area of operations today. The Hostomel area remains heavily contested. Of note is some ONIST reporting of improved air-ground integration between Russian ground forces and attack helicopters. Image
4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, almost no activity in this area today. Russian forces continued limited strikes of Chernihiv. Russian forces are 25km from the center of Kyiv in the east, they will need more troops to advance further. Image
5/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, this is becoming the most critical area for Ukraine. Russian gains in north Luhansk increase the likelihood of breaking the stalemate before Kharkiv. Image
6/ Reports of a Ukrainian counterattack to the northwest of Kyiv reaching the border may be of great significance if substantiated and it is having the ability to retain these gains. It this indeed has occurred then the logistics hub at Belogrod is in danger of being attacked.
7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, the situation in Mariupol continues to worsen. It is likely that Ukrainian forces in the city will not be able to hold out much longer. Expect to see increased preparation to defend Odesa. Image
8/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russians appear to be settling into an operational tempo of 5-6 days of sustained combat followed by a 24-48 pause to refit and reorganize. Setting a pace like this has risks and benefits, and opportunities for Ukraine to exploit.
9/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military still controls key points of communication and continues to be able to contest control of its airspace with Russian Aerospace forces. Despite foreign aid, attrition will eventual ground the Ukrainian Aur Force.
10/ There are various sources for current casualty projections. they generally do not agree, as they reflect wildly different numbers. I am including what is being reported by the Russians and Ukrainians for clarities sake.
11/ Though these casualty figures are most likely not accurate and will definitely change over time, what they do bring illumination to is the brutality of modern high-intensity combat between large-scale armed forces.
12/ High-intensity combat is a meat grinder for both people and material. Combat chews up resources faster than anyone can truly replace. Whatever the final accounting, the casualty figures for this war will be horrendous.
13/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

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More from @JominiW

Jan 23
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1064: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction from January 05-22, 2025. #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Andriivka #Vremivka Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction situation continues deteriorating for OSUV Tavriva. Efforts by OTU Krasnohorivka throughout late December 2024 and early January 2025 failed to hold the defensive line in Kurakhove and along the Sukhi Yaly River Valley. The 29th Guards Combined Arms Army has secured the banks of the Sukhi Yaly River from Uspenivka to the southern approaches of Ulakly.

With the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army seizing control of most of the T05-15 Road and pressuring Ukrainian defenses to the north, there is a real threat to OTU Krasnohorivka ability to break contact and execute an orderly delayed withdrawal along the H-15 Highway and reestablishing a coherent defense within the Andriivka-Oleksiivka fortified conglomerate.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 22
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1063: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Pokrovsk Area of Operations from January 05-21, 2025. #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Myrnohrad #Udachne #Malynivka2 Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: Kostyantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military observer, has reported that the Russian command of the Operational Group of Forces Center is continuing to build upon its progress south of Pokrovsk in operations involving the 41st and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Armies. To this end, the Russian command has concentrated multiple units and formations from these armies on a relatively small segment of the front, extending from the village of Dachenske to Novotroitske.

As a result of these efforts and the consolidation of combat-ready troops in this narrow section of the front line, the Russians have gained significant superiority in forces and resources in this area and have successfully secured control of the village of Zvirove. They are actively launching attacks towards Zvirove and north/northwest of Pishchane. Furthermore, the Russian forces have continued their offensive with elements of the 41st and 51st Guards Combined Arms Armies in the Vozdvyzhenka region, attempting to flank Ukrainian positions which remain steadfast in their defense north of Timofiyivka and Lozuvatske.Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 13
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1054: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kursk Operational Direction from January 05-12, 2025. #Kursk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Sudzha Image
2/ Operational Terms. Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Northeast Sudzha Lodgement: On January 5, 2025, Ukrainian forces initiated a series of assaults along the 38K-04 Highway in the direction of Bolshoe Soldatskoe. EWS and infantry supported armored columns led by tanks fitted with mine-rollers. EWS rendered most Russian drones useless (except fiber optic drones). Ukrainian forces managed to overwhelm the forward defensive positions of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment and quickly seized terrain between the villages of Berdin and Novosotnitskii.

On January 6, Ukrainian attacks to the south approached Biriukovka while forces holding terrain near Berdin advanced on Rozgrebli. By January 7, a Russian counterattack supported by DPRK infantry repelled the Ukrainian advance on Biriukovka, held Rozgrebli, secured Novosotnitskii, and pushed ZSU troops to the treelinessouth of Berdin, ending ZSU offensive action in this sector.

x.com/NOELreports/st…
Read 7 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1030): The situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) remains challenging for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since November 28, the ZSU has struggled to stabilize defensive lines in many key sectors along the Strategic Front while effectively managing delaying operations in the critical Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Operational Direction. However, Ukrainian forces have regained lost ground in a few important areas. This thread provides a general overview of events throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) since late November. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #SiverekImage
2/ Operational Terms. Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Northern Strategic Direction: The Northern Strategic Direction (SD) remains the TVDs secondary SD. ZSU operations in this SD have very likely lost the ability to shift the operational initiative in Ukraine’s favor. As previously assessed, the employment of the RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) (a.k.a. Oreshnik) has not deterred Ukraine from continuing to employ ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP systems against Russian deep logistics and command nodes within the territory of the Russian Federation. However, since Western authorization to use these systems on the territory of the Russian Federation was granted, ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes have been limited. This is likely due to low stockpiles and not the continued threats by President Putin to conduct another Oreshnik strike.

OSV Kursk will continue to counterattack the southwestern flank of the Sudzhalodgment, threatening an operational encirclement of Ukrainian forces and forcing a withdrawal. It is likely that OTU Siversk(?) will attempt to counterattack towards Novoivanovka. DPRK forces will almost certainly continue to be atomized at the small-unit level and integrated into larger VSRF formations to gain experience. VSRF and ZSU forces will likely continue positional engagements in the Kharkiv region; Russian forces will likely remain focused on efforts to seize Vovchansk.Image
Read 20 tweets
Dec 3, 2024
1/ Southern Strategic Direction Update (Day 1013): Today's short update focuses on events in the Southern Operational Direction since November 04, 2024, and the Maritime and Aerospace theaters. The Southern Strategic Direction is now the tertiary SD of the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD). VSRF activity throughout this SD is mostly defensive and has primarily focused on the continued in-depth strengthening of the Surovikin Line.

Elements of the Operational Group of Forces East (OSV Vostok) in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction will prioritize offensive actions in coordination with OSV Tsentr to complete the seizure of southern Donetsk Oblast. Operational Group of Forces Dniepr(OSV Dniepr) will continue to conduct limited assaults in the Orihkiv Operational Direction and set conditions for a potential offensive to seize Orihkiv. Russian forces will maintain defense along the Dnipro River in Kherson. The ZSU will continue to rely on deep strike and SSO-U infiltration raids in coordination with Partisans to disrupt and degrade SVRF's capability and capacity to defend Zaporizhzhia and Kherson effectively. The priority of ZSU effort will remain the defense of southern Donetsk Oblast. #UkraineWar #Zaporizhzhia #VelykaNovosilka #Orikhiv #Kherson #Crimea #BlackSea #RussianAirForceImage
2/ Operational Terms. To help you understand the thread's graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (Note: I am still refining and updating this list. Please bear with me as I do. Thank you.) Image
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3/ Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction: The failure of OSUV Tavriva's leadership to anticipate an assault on Velyka Novosilka from any direction other than the southern approaches has placed this geographic objective point in danger of falling to the Russians. Within days of the capture of Shakhtarske and Yasna Polyana, the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army executed an operational left turn to reorient on an east-west attack axes to assault Velyka Novosilka. The eastern approaches to the town were lightly defended, with only spare minefields guarding likely avenues of approach, which were quickly breached by advancing Russian forces. Supporting this attack were assaults from the south by elements of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army on Makarivka and Novodarivka. ZSU defenses in these directions were better prepared to respond to a multi-axes SVRF advance. The Russians briefly held Makarivka in early November 2024 before ZSU counterattacks retook the settlement by the end of the month.

The 29th Guards Combined Arms Army will continue to attack north and northwest of Velyka Novosilka towards the T-0518/H15 Highway intersection. Russian forces in the Rozdolne and Noyvi Komar will expand their zone of control north and west; they are not likely to advance into the north environs of Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Guards Combined Arms Army operational priority is likely the capture of Zelene Pole and Temyrivka to cut the last line of communication into Velyka Novosilka to to facilitate the operational envelopment of OSUV Tavriva’s strategic flank in southern Donetsk Oblast, forcing a general withdrawal into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. OSUV Tavriva will continue their active defense of the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction and seek counterattack opportunities.Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 28, 2024
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1008): The situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) remains challenging for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, since November 5, the ZSU has managed to stabilize defensive lines in many key sectors of the Strategic Front while effectively transitioning to a delaying operation in the critical Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Operational Direction. This thread provides a general overview of events in the Northern and Donbas Strategic Directions of the Ukrainian TVD since early November. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #SiverekImage
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in comprehension of the thread's graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (Note: I am still refining and updating this list. Please bear with me as I do. Thank you.) Image
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3/ Northern Strategic Direction: After approximately 104 days since offensive operations started in Kursk, the Biden Administration (with the governments of France and the United Kingdom closely following suit) has finally been compelled to lift restrictions on the use of long-range strike weapons (like ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP) on targets within the Russian Federation. However, the United States has not committed to President Zelensky’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles and other long-range missile systems. Due to the limited quantity of ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP stockpiles, ZSU strikes on logistics facilities, airfields, and command posts inside the Russian Federation have been limited in scope and have had negligible effects on VSRF operations.

In the Kursk OD, VDV-led counterattacks continue to pressure ZSU defensive lines. Although there has been anecdotal reporting from Ukrainian troops in the Kursk lodgment stating they have engaged in combat with DPRK forces, there has yet to be credible footage to substantiate these claims. Russian efforts to mask the location of DPRK units by atomizing units (i.e., only deploying small units, likely company and below, within SVRF battalions) and dressing them in Russian uniforms appear successful. Obfuscating the location of DPRK units allows them to gain the necessary experience to operate as an effective independent force.Image
Read 15 tweets

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