BREAKING: A second attempt at a ceasefire to establish a humanitarian corridor and allow for the evacuation of civilians in Mariupol will be attempted again from 10am to 9pm today.
A ceasefire and civilian evacuation was supposed to take place yesterday from 9am to 4pm,
(2) However, Russian forces continued to shell Mariupol, forcing Ukrainian officials to call off the planned evacuations.
Mariupol has been surrounded by Russian troops for days, and reports indicate the city is without power, water, heat, and food supplies are running low.
(3) Mariupol has also faced intense, indiscriminate shelling for nearly a week, causing catastrophic damage to residential areas and likely significant numbers of civilian casualties.
So far, Russia has remained content to use stand-off bombardments to slowly choke Mariupol into
(4) surrendering.
Worth noting, as the situation stands right now, it is very unlikely that a fall of Mariupol will ultimately affect the overall outcome of the war. Making Russia's willingness to inflict maximum death and destruction to the port city all the more senseless.
(5) Prior to Russia's invasion, Mariupol was home to over 400k people. It is very likely that close to this many residents were ever able to evacuate in time and still remain in the city.
* close to 400k residents *WERE NOT* able to get out of the city.
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🧵Having personally worked several Presidential and Vice Presidential security details, here’s some of my thoughts based on the available info of the assassination attempt on Trump.
(2) 1. The Secret Service employ a multi-tiered defense in depth approach to protective missions. An inner tier offer close protection support, these being the agents you see rushing in and surrounding Trump after the initial shots go off.
(3)
A second middle tier is tasked with identifying and defending against mid-range threats, i.g. the crowd, etc. This tier is largely comprised of local and state law enforcement temporarily attached to the security detail. This is the area that I worked on prior details.
JUST NOW: "There is no, again no, indications of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns." - White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre
(2) Beginning in June President Biden has been receiving daily briefings specifically on "unidentified aerial phenomena" (UAP). - NSC Spokesperson John Kirby.
(3) The three objects downed over the weekend were not assessed as posing a threat to anyone on the ground. No communications transmissions were detected. Object ruled to be unmanned. No wreckage from any of the objects have been recovered, so far. - NSC Spokesperson John Kirby.
UPDATE 🧵: Contrary to what the White House and Pentagon had said, there almost certainly was some ulterior political motives behind yesterday’s shoot down of an “unidentified aerial object.”
Certain because, at roughly 2:30pm EST when NSC spokesperson John Kirby made the first
(2) announcement of the shoot down, he said that it had been downed roughly an hour prior. @PentagonPresSec reiterated that point when he spoke later at around 4pm EST.
(3) So by all accounts the object was shot down around 1-1:30pm EST.
Yet, curiously the Pentagon sent out press advisories to the media announcing the live press conference at 10:45 AM EST that morning.
(It says 4:48pm because I’m in Germany on CET)
UPDATE: I woke up to a message saying the WDU-17/B warhead on the AIM-9X sidewinder may have detonated when it made impact with the “unidentified airborne object” shot down near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska yesterday.
(2) Consider this unconfirmed since I can’t follow up on that message at the moment.
But if true, it would suggest the object had enough mass to trigger the missile’s IR proximity or contact fuze.
(3) For comparison, in the shoot down of the Chinese spy balloon, you’ll notice the AIM-9X AAM passes through the balloon and doesn’t appear to explode.
My hot take speculation, based on low information, about today's shoot down of an unidentified object:
It was a small hybrid aerostat monitoring emissions related to the U.S.'s ICBM test last night out of Vandenberg.
Something about it being purely a spy balloon doesn't match up.
The DoD detected it over US territorial waters yesterday and then shot it down today over US territorial waters? What are we talking from detection to shoot down? 12 hours? 18 hours?
(3) The object didn't move 12 nautical miles in 12-18 hours? At 40k feet? Typical wind speeds at 40k feet are what 100-125mph?