Russia is now using older Tochka-U missile launchers against Ukraine, as seen in Desnyanka, 40 km from the border with Belarus.
Videos and photos show a tell-tale 9M79M booster familiar from Syria and Karabakh
It typically remains intact when a cluster warhead is used.
Over the past few years, Russia has gradually switched the Tochkas in its rocket brigades for newer Iskanders. The 47th brigade was the last to do so, and evidence suggests it has used Tochka missiles during the siege of Mariupol in Eastern Ukraine. ukrinform.ru/rubric-ato/341…
However, as @MotolkoHelp reports, just recently Tochka-U launchers turned up in Belarus, where they proceeded to the border with Ukraine.
Desnyanka is but 40 km from the border, the 70km range of the 9M79M missile would allow it to hit from Belarus.
One potential reason for using Tochkas is that Russia may be running out of newer Iskander missiles, which are constantly launched from Belarus.
Another possibility is that the Tochkas are to supplement, not replace the Iskanders, to support stalled offensives in the north.
Tochkas have a worse reach and (stated) accuracy than Russia's newer ballistic and cruise missiles, but the latter still pose a major threat, and today's strike in Vinnytsya airport is evidence of this.
The impact of mud and non-flying weather on warfare—from World War II to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine🧵1/9
Historically, bad weather slowed down military operations in spring and fall: tanks and supply trucks got stuck in mud, while fog and wind grounded aircraft. It offered armies a chance to regroup, bring up reserves and prepare for new offensives once conditions improved 2/9
In the modern war in Ukraine, with deep breakthroughs largely gone, infantry able to attack through mud, and paved roads keeping supplies flowing to the near rear, the role of the muddy season has changed 3/9
Brief Overview of Frontline Changes Over the Past Month 🧵
In the Sumy direction, the frontline did not change significantly in October. Russian forces made minor gains near Volodymyrivka and Varachyne, while intense fighting continues near Yunakivka 1/12
In the Kharkiv region, activity has increased near Vovchansk. The RuAF have secured the territory of the oil extraction plant, crossed the Vovcha River and are trying to advance further south along the railway. To the southwest, assault groups have reached the outskirts of Synelnykove 2/12
In the border area of the Kharkiv region, the RuAF are advancing near Odradne and Bolohivka, which, as we assess, aims to establish a "buffer zone" uniting the territories near Milove and the areas near Stroivka and Topoli, along the Oskil River 3/12
In the Dobropillia direction, Ukrainian forces have continued mopping-up the northern part of the salient over the past few days. They have fully liberated the villages of Kucheriv Yar, Sukhetske and Zatyshok and have advanced near Nove Shakhove 1/4
Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledges the extent of Russian infiltration into Pokrovsk, saying at least 200 RuAF soldiers are now inside the town 2/4
Russian forces strike a passenger bus in the Sumy region and residential buildings in Kyiv, killing at least 6 people and injuring a total of 59. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, hit a dam in Russia’s Belgorod region 3/4
🧵1/ In the Pokrovsk direction, the AFU have recently begun actively counterattacking in the Dobropillia breakthrough, advancing near the villages of Razine and Novotoretske. It appears that Ukrainian forces intend to cut off the main part of the Dobropillia salient along the Kazenyi Torets River by advancing from the north and south. The AFU also likely cleared another section of the salient west of Kucheriv Yar and south of Zolotyi Kolodiaz
2/ Near Boikivka, a Ukrainian soldier used a ruse to eliminate two Russian servicemen. Knowing Russians moved in small, disconnected groups, he pretended to be one of them. Gaining their trust, he followed them off open ground, then shot both. His actions aren't considered a war crime, as he wore no enemy uniform or insignia
3/ Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov reported on the mass production of radio detectors for Supercam drones which detect the approach of interceptor drones and automatically issue an evasion command
🧵1/ CIT records the highest number of civilians casualties since january 2024 for two months in a Row. Attacks and shelling on both sides of the frontline in June 2025 killed at least 282 civilians and wounded a minimum of 1,972
2/ The situation worsened in July, when 335 people lost their lives, almost 19% more than in June. 2,228 civilians were injured, marking a 13% increase
3/ While an increase in civilian casualties was also observed during last year's summer, the escalation in 2025 is much more severe. The number of fatalities over the two summer months increased by 25% and injuries rose by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year
For those who somehow missed our piece on T-90M MBTs or don't have time for longreads, here are key takeaways from the research👇
🧵1/12
2/ Before T-90M serial production began in 2020, Uralvagonzavod had produced between 120 and 150 original T-90 tanks, along with roughly 280 T-90A models
3/ UVZ managed to preserve its production capacities. At the peak in the 2010s, the plant could produce up to 140 tanks annually, while also manufacturing tank assembly kits