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CIT (en) Profile picture
CIT (en)
@CITeam_en
Conflict Intelligence Team. Donate: https://t.co/BFzILZtkBB Русская версия: @CITeam_ru
10 subscribers
Jul 2 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
The partial lift of the ban on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory has proven life-saving for Kharkiv. Lifting remaining restrictions would provide even greater protection 1/17
🧵👇
notes.citeam.org/lift-the-ban-g… One month after the start of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv axis, the US has relaxed restrictions on the use of precision weapons against targets on Russian territory, allowing the use of HIMARS MLRS rockets in Russian regions bordering Ukraine 2/17
politico.com/news/2024/05/3…
Mar 22, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 In Jan. 2023, photos emerged of Russian MT-LB armored vehicles modified with naval anti-aircraft weapons. Different types were identified by different heavy machine gun or autocannon deck mounts. We expect them to be used as self-propelled AA systems
notes.citeam.org/tankenstein 2/7 Photos from mid-Jan. 2023 show 3 types of modified vehicles:
- with a 12.7mm DShK M1938 HMG;
- with a 2M-1 twin 12.7mm DShK(M) deck mount;
- with a 2M-7 twin 14.5mm KPV deck mount
Aug 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In the past few months, we and other analyst have watched the formation and training of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, first publicly reported by Ukrainian intelligence back in June.

Now it is being deployed to the Ukrainian border.

1/5
 te.legra.ph/Russia-transfe… Photo and video evidence shows trains with a Buk air defense system and T-80BV and T-90M tanks. Per Russian Railways database, they are heading deployed from Mulino, 3rd AC's training base, to the Ukrainian border close to Taganrog, Rostov region.

2/5
Jul 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov was officially announced as commander of Russia's Group of Troops "East" when Shoigu paid a visit to the group's command center

Previously Muradov was in command of Russia's peacekeepers in Karabakh

He was reportedly wounded earlier in this war ImageImage Muradov is the third known Russian Group of Troops commander, with Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin in command of Group Center, and Army General Sergey Surovikin — Group South

The groups roughly correspond to peacetime Western, Southern, Central and Eastern military districts ImageImage
Jul 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Last month Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia is forming a "3rd Army Corps" in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region.

We can now confirm this is indeed the case.
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/351… In the past few weeks we've seen several trains in Russia with military vehicles, presumably taken out of storage.

Per the Russian Railways database, they were all heading to Mulino. ImageImage
Jun 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
We have new information on changes in Russian command.

According to our sources, Western Military District commander Aleksandr Zhuravlyov and his chief of staff Aleksey Zavizion are both out, the former replaced by Andrey Sychevoy, ex-commander of the 8th Army. We have no information as to where they were transferred or why exactly they were dismissed from their posts, but the Central Military District forces have suffered defeats at Sumy and Kharkiv and most recently showed a lackluster performance south of Izyum.
May 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
More information on this order, which we have seen and studied.

Military district commands are ordered to create tank and motorized rifle reserve battalions on the basis of each regiment and brigade.

Some will employ older vehicles, for example BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. Those battalions are created on the basis of "third battalions", that are used to train conscripts and thus haven't been engaged in Ukraine.

They will be supplemented from those who signed voluntary contracts during a recent recruitment drive and personnel from other subunits.
May 16, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Last week, all eyes were on Russia's big parade in Moscow, which featured much fewer vehicles than last year, those missing presumably engaged in the war in Ukraine.

But, as @tom_bullock_ noted, a lot more information can be gleaned from smaller, regional parades.

So we did. Our volunteers painstakingly counted the vehicles on parades in 20 cities across Russia and Crimea.

Analysis of this data shows that every broad category of vehicles (tanks, AFVs, artillery, AA systems) were represented in fewer numbers, and in some cases, not at all.
Apr 8, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Today, a Tochka-U missile impacted near Ukraine-controlled Kramatorsk railway station in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, reportedly killing dozens.
facebook.com/story.php?stor…

The damage is consistent with a 9N123K cluster warhead. Image The rocket booster's alignment suggests the missile could come from the southwest.

@mod_russia claims it came from Ukraine-contolled Dobropillya. However, there are Ru/separatist positions within Tochka range in that direction.

Missile launches were also seen SE of Kramatorsk. Image
Apr 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
You may be familiar with these satellite images of a mass grave in Bucha, the town northwest of Kyiv which was the site of horrific mass killings. We decided to contextualize these images:
The mass grave is visible in a March 21 Planet satellite image, which shows that it grew since the March 10 Maxar image was taken. Notably, both images are from long before the Russian troops left Bucha.
Apr 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Analysts and intelligence services warn that the troops Russia has pulled out of northern Ukraine will likely redeploy to the country's east.

These BMD-2 airborne fighting vehicles, filmed in Belarus, are indeed going to Stary Oskol next to eastern Ukraine, per rail tracker data Another train, this one carrying T-72B3 tanks, was filmed near Moscow going to Valuyki (next to eastern Ukraine) from Elnya, the base of the 59th Tank Regiment and a pre-invasion staging ground of the 41st Combined Arms Army

Apr 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Our team is horrified at the images of mass killings of civilians coming out from Bucha and wider Kyiv region.

We strongly believe the killings were carried out by Russian servicemen and will do our best to assist the investigation and bring the perpetrators to justice. The killings follow a pattern of witness accounts and footage coming out of Kyiv region during the fighting and occupation.
hrw.org/news/2022/03/3…

An important part in the investigation would be to establish specific units involved in the occupation.
Apr 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday, after the attack on a fuel storage facility in Belgorod, Russia, local media reported that an allegedly Ukrainian missile struck south of the city.

We geolocated a video of the incident and can confirm the missile came from the north-east (i.e. Russian territory). The size of the crater and the missile (relative to the electric poles) suggest that it may have been a 9M728 cruise missile from a Russian Iskander-M launcher.

Ukraine hasn't used cruise missiles in the conflict, and a ballistic missile would have come from Ukrainian positions.
Mar 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We have gathered more evidence that Russia is still moving troops and vehicles towards Ukraine.

While the apparent scale of the movement is lower than the pre-invasion buildup, it is nevertheless concerning. In addition to combat vehicles, we can see various engineer and support equipment being moved, like military tow trucks to evacuate disabled or abandoned vehicles, as well as pontoon equipment which is essential as Ukrainians blow up bridges to halt Russian advances.
Mar 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
We can now confirm that Russia is using incendiary bombs on Chernihiv.

Today's post by @SESU_UA shows personnel defusing an airdropped bomb, that appears to be an OFZAB-500 fragmentation high explosive incendiary bomb facebook.com/MNS.GOV.UA/pos… A few days ago OFZAB-500 bombs (correctly ID'd by @idzanagi4) fell on Chernihiv together with a Russian Su-34 jet shot down over the city. Back then we were unable to confirm that the city indeed was its intended target.
Mar 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This Pentagon source certainly surprised us and other researchers, because recently more tanks, self-propelled guns and other armored vehicles were observed moving on trains towards Ukraine.

In one particular instance, we traced a train seen in Belarus to Cheryoha station, the base of the 104th Guards Air Assault Regiment of the elite 76th Air Assault Division.

Mar 7, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
The Russian forces are now shelling Mykolaiv with cluster rockets, like Kharkiv before it.

Photos and videos from locals show the remains of rockets from both Uragan and Smerch multi-launching rocket systems


A useful guide to tell these rockets apart can be found here.


Both MLRS and cluster munitions are inherently indiscriminate weapons, and using them on civilian areas might amount to war crimes.
Mar 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Russia is now using older Tochka-U missile launchers against Ukraine, as seen in Desnyanka, 40 km from the border with Belarus.

Videos and photos show a tell-tale 9M79M booster familiar from Syria and Karabakh

It typically remains intact when a cluster warhead is used. Image Over the past few years, Russia has gradually switched the Tochkas in its rocket brigades for newer Iskanders. The 47th brigade was the last to do so, and evidence suggests it has used Tochka missiles during the siege of Mariupol in Eastern Ukraine.
ukrinform.ru/rubric-ato/341… Image
Mar 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
We have extensively covered the use of Russian cluster bombs in Syria, and now we are seeing them in Ukraine.

This video from Ukraine's emergency service, filmed in Odesa region, shows the remains of RBK-500 cluster bomb and PTAB-1M submunitions.
facebook.com/DSNSODE/videos… Neither Russia nor Ukraine has joined the ban on cluster munitions, but this type of weapon is inherently indiscriminate as it disperses bomblets over a large area, so any use of those in populated areas, like here in Zatoka resort town on the Black Sea, is a potential war crime.
Mar 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Russia is using its full conventional arsenal against Ukraine - including modern guided rockets, such as this that fell in Ukraine-controlled Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, damaging a house.

The nose canards match a guided rocket for Russia's "Tornado-S" MLRS. One of the rocket's fragments has a 9Б706 (9B706) marking - which suggests it is a control unit installed in this type of rocket.
newstula.ru/fn_654486.html
Mar 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
The Russian Air Force has lost a Su-25SM ground attack jet, photo by Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko shows.

The plane was quickly purged from Russian air spotter databases, but an archived photo clearly shows a Su-25SM with the same registration number as on the remains. According to archived database data, this plane was part of the 18th Close Air Support Air Regiment, based in Chernigovka in the Russian Far East.

Jets from this regiment were reportedly flown to Belarus as part of "Allied Resolve-2022" exercise