Russia is now using older Tochka-U missile launchers against Ukraine, as seen in Desnyanka, 40 km from the border with Belarus.
Videos and photos show a tell-tale 9M79M booster familiar from Syria and Karabakh
It typically remains intact when a cluster warhead is used.
Over the past few years, Russia has gradually switched the Tochkas in its rocket brigades for newer Iskanders. The 47th brigade was the last to do so, and evidence suggests it has used Tochka missiles during the siege of Mariupol in Eastern Ukraine. ukrinform.ru/rubric-ato/341…
However, as @MotolkoHelp reports, just recently Tochka-U launchers turned up in Belarus, where they proceeded to the border with Ukraine.
Desnyanka is but 40 km from the border, the 70km range of the 9M79M missile would allow it to hit from Belarus.
One potential reason for using Tochkas is that Russia may be running out of newer Iskander missiles, which are constantly launched from Belarus.
Another possibility is that the Tochkas are to supplement, not replace the Iskanders, to support stalled offensives in the north.
Tochkas have a worse reach and (stated) accuracy than Russia's newer ballistic and cruise missiles, but the latter still pose a major threat, and today's strike in Vinnytsya airport is evidence of this.
The partial lift of the ban on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory has proven life-saving for Kharkiv. Lifting remaining restrictions would provide even greater protection 1/17
🧵👇 notes.citeam.org/lift-the-ban-g…
One month after the start of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv axis, the US has relaxed restrictions on the use of precision weapons against targets on Russian territory, allowing the use of HIMARS MLRS rockets in Russian regions bordering Ukraine 2/17 politico.com/news/2024/05/3…
The debate over the interpretation of the restrictions continues to this day. However, the ban on using ATACMS with a range of 290 km [180 mi] remains in place. The US also specifically prohibited targeting Russian aircraft located on nearby airbases 3/17 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/…
1/7 In Jan. 2023, photos emerged of Russian MT-LB armored vehicles modified with naval anti-aircraft weapons. Different types were identified by different heavy machine gun or autocannon deck mounts. We expect them to be used as self-propelled AA systems notes.citeam.org/tankenstein
2/7 Photos from mid-Jan. 2023 show 3 types of modified vehicles:
- with a 12.7mm DShK M1938 HMG;
- with a 2M-1 twin 12.7mm DShK(M) deck mount;
- with a 2M-7 twin 14.5mm KPV deck mount
3/7 Soon they were used on the frontline, and lost: in February, Ukraine captured a vehicle with a twin 14.5mm mount on an MT-LB chassis near Vuhledar, which likely belonged to the 1st Slavyanskaya Motorized Rifles Brigade (of the former "DPR" troops)
In the past few months, we and other analyst have watched the formation and training of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, first publicly reported by Ukrainian intelligence back in June.
Photo and video evidence shows trains with a Buk air defense system and T-80BV and T-90M tanks. Per Russian Railways database, they are heading deployed from Mulino, 3rd AC's training base, to the Ukrainian border close to Taganrog, Rostov region.
2/5
The 3rd AC personnel, primarily volunteers from a recent recruitment drive in Russia's regions, are reportedly poorly-trained, ill-disciplined and abusive toward locals in Mulino, as reported by @verstka_media here:
Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov was officially announced as commander of Russia's Group of Troops "East" when Shoigu paid a visit to the group's command center
Previously Muradov was in command of Russia's peacekeepers in Karabakh
He was reportedly wounded earlier in this war
Muradov is the third known Russian Group of Troops commander, with Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin in command of Group Center, and Army General Sergey Surovikin — Group South
The groups roughly correspond to peacetime Western, Southern, Central and Eastern military districts
Thanks to another Shoigu visit, we know the name of the commander of Russia's Group of Troops "West" — Andrey Ivanovich Sychevoy
Earlier, our sources named him as the new commander of the Western Military District, which roughly corresponds to Group West
We have new information on changes in Russian command.
According to our sources, Western Military District commander Aleksandr Zhuravlyov and his chief of staff Aleksey Zavizion are both out, the former replaced by Andrey Sychevoy, ex-commander of the 8th Army.
We have no information as to where they were transferred or why exactly they were dismissed from their posts, but the Central Military District forces have suffered defeats at Sumy and Kharkiv and most recently showed a lackluster performance south of Izyum.
Zavizyon has previously been accused by Ukrainian intelligence of commanding Russian proxy fighters in Ukraine. He reportedly was instrumental in the pivotal battle for Debaltseve in 2015. kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi…