Thread by @morcos_pierre

[Thread] Very interesting interview by @elise_vincent of the general Burkhard, 🇫🇷 chief of defense staff, on the war in #Ukraine. Some highlights 👇
lemonde.fr/international/…

A war in Ukraine "was on the table as early as the summer of 2021, when I took office. There was intelligence that the Russians would wait until it was cold" before attacking Ukraine. "The triggering of the attack was therefore not a surprise."

As soon as the first bombings took place, "we activated the planned measures. Every position that needed to be reinforced in the French armed forces was reinforced".

"The Americans said that the Russians were going to attack, they were right. Instead, our services thought that a conquest of Ukraine would have a monstrous cost and that the Russians had other options."

As soon as the fighting began on 24 February, France began deploying assets according to NATO's plans. By noon, a first Rafale patrol was sent to the Polish sky.

"The Russians will have to commit the second echelon of their forces," which was probably not planned. In addition to logistical deficiencies, the Russian army "seems to have a combativeness issue in some units", which have not necessarily been prepared for high intensity.

But "the risk is that the Russian pressure" will eventually succeed: a matter of weeks or months, linked to the organization of the Ukrainian resistance.

There is no certainty at this stage about the presence of Belarusian forces in the Ukrainian theater. However, there is more certainty about the presence of mercenaries from the private Russian company Wagner Group.

Russia has also set up a real "anti-air barrier" from the north to the south of Europe, notably by deploying highly sophisticated S-400 defence systems.

The level of vigilance has also been reinforced in the cyber and space domains. But "no intentional spillover" from the Ukrainian conflict has been observed in these areas for the moment. [End]