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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 8

Russia continues the offensive against Ukraine with the support of aircraft and the use of high-precision weapons.

The enemy's main efforts are for the capture of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Mariupol, Mykolayiv and to reach to boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. 1/7

Russia's puppet state Belarus may still plan to include its army in the invasion force. Six Lukashenka regime battle groups are noted as mobilizing to join the offensive. But the morale of Belarusian soldiers is extremely low. They don't want to fight alongside Russians. 2/7

The Russians have substantial forces tied up protecting extended and vulnerable supply lines. Their combat units at the front are insufficient to lay siege to Kyiv. Attempting to storm the city from several directions, the enemy suffers heavy losses from Ukrainian defenders. 3/7

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 7

In the village of Myla in Kyiv region, a unit of Kadyrov mercenaries is shelling civilians. (Ramzan Kadyrov is dictator Putin's Gauleiter in Russian-occupied Chechnya.) 1/5

Enemy formations operating in the area of Konotop and Okhtyrka in Sumy region lost up to 50 percent of their personnel. To continue the offensive, they need to regroup and replenish supplies. 2/5

The invaders use terrorist methods against civilians, shelling humanitarian convoys organized by Ukrainian authorities. A made-for-TV propaganda effort is underway to bring in actors pretending to be Ukrainians welcoming the Russians as liberators. 3/5

Read 6 tweets

Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 3

Partly because Western leaders refused air cover for Ukrainian defenders, Russian troops have advanced to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. It is the largest in Europe.

The Russians are now shelling Zaporizhia NPP with artillery.

Livecast of the fire at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, under Russian artillery fire tonight:

Flashes from Russian artillery strikes at Zaporizhia nuclear power plant a minute ago. Smoke is rising in the lower right of this screen capture.

Read 6 tweets

Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 3

Because of losses suffered while advancing into Ukraine, Russian troops have begun to act more insidiously. They fire from within residential areas at civilians.

As Putin promised at the start of the war in March 2014: "We will come at you behind your women and children." 1/4

Russia mobilized 117 battalion tactical groups for the offensive against Ukraine. On Day 8 the enemy has deployed all but six of them to the territory of Ukraine. Morale of Russian units is low. 2/4

Russia delayed a landing in the Odesa – Zatoka area, instead carrying out demonstrations to distract Ukrainian defenders.

The Russian invaders have fired so many Kalibr missiles they've run out. Currently the enemy is replenishing supplies. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 2

For 8 years since #RussiaInvadedUkraine most "experts" studied American and German intelligence reports about Russian capabilities. These assessment were hopelessly wrong.

I've been reading accurate Ukrainian intel. I expected the Russian army to be the piece of crap it is.

The Ukrainians are far better at human intelligence than the Americans and Germans are when it comes to the Russian regime of state terrorism.

They knew all about corruption in the Russian officer corps. Theft of matériel is so massive little of it makes it to front-line units.

I would laugh out loud each time mainstream news media in the U.S. put out a "breaking" story about something the Pentagon said, which turned out to be something the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had said several years earlier.

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Michael MacKay

@mhmck

Mar 2

Amazing news. Ukraine's 95th Brigade entered the city of Horlivka in Donetsk region and is fighting Russian occupation forces there. Horlivka was taken by the Russian invaders in the first year of the war, 2014-15.

Liberating Horlivka would give a big morale boost to Ukrainians.

Horlivka is a vulnerable position of Russian invasion/occupation forces in Donbas. Able to launch their attack from the north and the west, Ukrainian forces can envelop the city and cut it off from Debaltseve to the east and Donetsk to the south.

Prisoners of war captured by Ukrainian forces in the first hours of the raid were conscripts – local people with no military training who were forced into the fake "DPR" only in the last few weeks.

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