Thread by @_ppmv

Reminder: Just because no one is telling you that some governments plan decades ahead, and that today's decisions are climate-driven, doesn't mean it's not happening.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1497629646401249280

2/ Most seem to imagine a liberal future world order like ours—with state sovereignty, freedoms, human rights, international law etc., but somehow without fossil fuel use,—only in a 4-8°C warmer world? 🥳🤣? How on Earth does anyone still believe this?

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1270260989607452672

3/ Leaders know billions will die. Some have known since the 1980s.

Think about what this means. Don't assume you or your children will be spared.

Read some history. Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World versobooks.com/books/2311-lat…

4/ Some scientists think such scenarios are "exceedingly unlikely." More likely, they are naive or play naive, for whatever reason. When billions of lives are at stake, choose carefully whom you trust.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1499805204736352262

5/ People often ask me—OK, now what? What can we do? I tend to share information in response (learning is my bias). But a practical way is to marry learning with civil disobedience and direct action if you can.

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG

https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1500759976587022339

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG 6/ Putin may have launched the age of climate wars—we don't know. All we know is that WE are in a struggle for survival, against people who use the world's best technology and foresight analysis to ensure that they profit. I'd suggest we don't accept this.

https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1498016653359161346

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG 7 (a) "Energy IS the economy"

(b) "There is no economy in a future with oil"

Both a+b are true. Climate scientists don't get it. So we have a massive cognitive problem. It will 100% backfire if we don't prepare people for the truth that decarbonization = lower living standards.

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG 8/ (b) Without decarbonization there is no future, so we don't have a choice.

(a) Without systemic analysis people just won't see the urgency & won't build the systems to keep them alive.

Welcome to the mindbending inner workings of climate.

Best intro:

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1500754724252962816

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG 9/ All this is public, peer-reviewed science, no surprise. Here a classic Senate hearing (watch it!—way better than most today) from 1985. We just happen to be around at the moment when the hammer drops. Let's catch it before it smashes us.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1458570127377641476

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG 15/ The future of life is in the balance.

Many scientists say the opposite. Don't let it confuse you. Science is specialized and slow to accept new knowledge. Not much help against nonlinear change. It can tell you "it's too late" with 100% certainty but not how to prevent that.

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG 16/ Scientists & engineers dig deep in their own fields, but few train to take a whole-of-system view. It's not incentivized & a mindbender, as you see in this thread alone. Check Donella Meadows & @bethsawin, queens of system thinking's, thoughts on this.

https://twitter.com/bethsawin/status/1495029846845575169

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin 17/ How to solve this?

(b) "No economy with oil": the slow response of ocean & ice sheets to GHG forcing makes decarbonization the priority. Once we *see* change it's decades too late to address causes.

This defies law & legal system. Call to lawyers—we urgently need solutions.

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin 18/ (a) "Energy is the economy": call to analysts & economists. Theory is lacking. *Even degrowth & ecological economics don't remotely suffice* in a climate perspective, sorry all. But here we have rapid feedbacks, so we can learn. Hence b>a. Let's learn:

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1482043810981031947

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin 19/ A great way to summarize the two contrasting but complementary views (a+b) that must be reconciled, from a kind geologist:

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin 20/ You activists, scientists MUST understand how your enemy thinks to have any chance—else they easily defeat you. They understand how you think: easy to read.

Study this stuff, respect & consult energy professionals. @CareyWKing's book as great intro.

https://twitter.com/CareyWKing/status/1500692185745956868

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin @CareyWKing 21/ Ye Tao also lays out these questions clearly; here with @ExtinctionR's Clare Farrell.

I've been meaning to set these two perspectives side by side for ages because we persistently get them wrong.

Hope this helped some, and didn't overly disillusion.

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin @CareyWKing @ExtinctionR 22/ It's a privilege of activists & scientists to give a voice to those who would have none. Idk who else can speak for them if not us.

To do so well, recognize both narratives a+b as legitimate.

This is a fine aspect of systems thinking. Old 🇨🇳 example

https://twitter.com/hz_udhr/status/1221414227631538177

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin @CareyWKing @ExtinctionR 23/ Be the feedbacks you want to see in the system.

Not all of us have to do this—it's fine to rage against the system, if that's you.

But taking systems down is the easy part. (They will collapse if feedbacks really mess up.) Building is the challenge.

https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1499140300924768256

@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin @CareyWKing @ExtinctionR 24/ Some of us MUST be fluent in the language of systems (a+b), and be mentally mobile enough to switch between the mental models of the rulers and the ruled at all times.

(I've used 'system' in different senses here on purpose. Good intro Morecroft 2015

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1499068977284329474

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@JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @ClimateCrisisAG @bethsawin @CareyWKing @ExtinctionR 25/ Hope this was helpful or at least not too confusing. @MrMatthewTodd here boils it down to the essence:

https://twitter.com/MrMatthewTodd/status/1500901550331420680

(DM always open)

Unplanned thread END