Thread by @ClintEhrlich

The West thinks sanctions are hurting Putin.

They have it backwards: His power inside Russia is surging.

A thread on what analysts are getting so wrong. 🧵

Objectively, Putin's poll numbers have improved since the lead-up to and onset of the war.

This was predictable – a "rally 'round the flag" effect is common for wartime president.

In less than 2 weeks, his approval rating spiked 10 points – from 61% to 71%.

Many in the West are predicting that this effect will be short lived.

Analysts think that Russians will sour on Putin if the economic situation in the country continues to worsen.

But there's a gaping hole in their theory: Russians don't think the war was Putin's fault.

This is difficult for people in the West to understand.

Here, we see the invasion of Ukraine as a war of choice.

In Russia, the average citizen sees the conflict as a war of necessity – one forced onto Russia by NATO and Ukraine.

This was confirmed before the war in research by the Levada Center, a non-governmental polling firm widely trusted in the West.

More than 66% of Russians blamed the conflict on America, NATO, or Ukraine.

Only 4% said the conflict was Russia's fault.

Because Russians do not believe Putin was responsible for the war, they naturally do not blame him for sanctions.

Citizens of the United States did not blame FDR for economic hardships like rationing during WW2.

Russians have a similar perspective on wartime hardships today.

If anything, the perceived cruelty of the current sanctions is making the West *more* of a villain in Russia.

Some Russians I know who had favorable opinions of the West now feel like they are *personally* under attack.

They resent being the targets of economic warfare.

One of the most egregious examples is the attempt to block international calls into Russia.

Today, many Russians overseas are having trouble reaching their families at home.

This makes them angry – but not at Putin. It makes them hate the West.

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1500289207872339968?s=20&t=Cu4NSko9E5JHCrFi32VxXQ

The Russians who are upset with Putin about sanctions are the ones who already opposed him.

They are a vocal, younger minority inside the country.

But the people attending anti-war marches are the same ones who previously were marching against corruption.

Putin's base sees the Western pullout from Russia as an opportunity to purge the country of foreign influence.

They *like* the idea of Western companies selling their stakes in state industries.

They *like* replacing Western brands with Russian and Chinese substitutes.

I'm not arguing that these replacements will be smooth.

They won't stop Russia's economy from heading for a deep recession.

But nationalist sentiments inside Russia right now are so strong, that's a price Russians are willing to pay.

The Kremlin is doing everything in its power to strengthen those sentiments.

It's why, within the last 2 days, it alleged that the U.S. was funding secret nuclear- and biological-weapons programs inside Ukraine.

In the West, these WMD claims were met with skepticism.

But in Russia, they were widely believed.

They reinforced the narrative that President Putin was forced to invade – because otherwise Ukraine might use WMDs in a war to retake Crimea or the Donbas.

The threat that Russia faces from Ukraine has been portrayed as the sequel to the threat from Nazi Germany – but this time, with WMDs.

And the crackdown on dissenting media voices inside Russia ensures that narrative remains unchallenged.

It's easy to laugh at "brainwashed Russians" and mock the country as the new North Korea.

For the sake of argument, let's assume that's true:

Should the U.S. be proud of a foreign policy that has created a "new North Korea" with 6,000 nukes?

If the goal of our policy towards Russia was to make it a closed, paranoid society – mission accomplished.

But we shouldn't pretend that, any day now, Russians will feel the sting of our economic warfare and turn on their President.

They're more likely to turn... on us.