Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Mar 8 16 tweets 4 min read
The West thinks sanctions are hurting Putin.

They have it backwards: His power inside Russia is surging.

A thread on what analysts are getting so wrong. 🧵
Objectively, Putin's poll numbers have improved since the lead-up to and onset of the war.

This was predictable – a "rally 'round the flag" effect is common for wartime president.

In less than 2 weeks, his approval rating spiked 10 points – from 61% to 71%.
Many in the West are predicting that this effect will be short lived.

Analysts think that Russians will sour on Putin if the economic situation in the country continues to worsen.

But there's a gaping hole in their theory: Russians don't think the war was Putin's fault.
This is difficult for people in the West to understand.

Here, we see the invasion of Ukraine as a war of choice.

In Russia, the average citizen sees the conflict as a war of necessity – one forced onto Russia by NATO and Ukraine.
This was confirmed before the war in research by the Levada Center, a non-governmental polling firm widely trusted in the West.

More than 66% of Russians blamed the conflict on America, NATO, or Ukraine.

Only 4% said the conflict was Russia's fault.
Because Russians do not believe Putin was responsible for the war, they naturally do not blame him for sanctions.

Citizens of the United States did not blame FDR for economic hardships like rationing during WW2.

Russians have a similar perspective on wartime hardships today.
If anything, the perceived cruelty of the current sanctions is making the West *more* of a villain in Russia.

Some Russians I know who had favorable opinions of the West now feel like they are *personally* under attack.

They resent being the targets of economic warfare.
One of the most egregious examples is the attempt to block international calls into Russia.

Today, many Russians overseas are having trouble reaching their families at home.

This makes them angry – but not at Putin. It makes them hate the West.
The Russians who are upset with Putin about sanctions are the ones who already opposed him.

They are a vocal, younger minority inside the country.

But the people attending anti-war marches are the same ones who previously were marching against corruption.
Putin's base sees the Western pullout from Russia as an opportunity to purge the country of foreign influence.

They *like* the idea of Western companies selling their stakes in state industries.

They *like* replacing Western brands with Russian and Chinese substitutes.
I'm not arguing that these replacements will be smooth.

They won't stop Russia's economy from heading for a deep recession.

But nationalist sentiments inside Russia right now are so strong, that's a price Russians are willing to pay.
The Kremlin is doing everything in its power to strengthen those sentiments.

It's why, within the last 2 days, it alleged that the U.S. was funding secret nuclear- and biological-weapons programs inside Ukraine.
In the West, these WMD claims were met with skepticism.

But in Russia, they were widely believed.

They reinforced the narrative that President Putin was forced to invade – because otherwise Ukraine might use WMDs in a war to retake Crimea or the Donbas.
The threat that Russia faces from Ukraine has been portrayed as the sequel to the threat from Nazi Germany – but this time, with WMDs.

And the crackdown on dissenting media voices inside Russia ensures that narrative remains unchallenged.
It's easy to laugh at "brainwashed Russians" and mock the country as the new North Korea.

For the sake of argument, let's assume that's true:

Should the U.S. be proud of a foreign policy that has created a "new North Korea" with 6,000 nukes?
If the goal of our policy towards Russia was to make it a closed, paranoid society – mission accomplished.

But we shouldn't pretend that, any day now, Russians will feel the sting of our economic warfare and turn on their President.

They're more likely to turn... on us.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Mar 9
🚨 Russia is escalating its controversial claims about U.S. bioweapons in Ukraine.

Today, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences -- Alexander Bartosh -- claimed America was developing *gene weapons* in Ukraine targeting Slavs. 🚨 ImageImage
To be clear, I am NOT endorsing the theory that America was developing gene-weapons in Ukraine.

I am *reporting* on this messaging from Russia's national-security establishment.

What Bartosh says is believed by the Russian public, and affects their support for the war.
Bartosh claims that it's not a coincidence the U.S. was performing anti-slavic gene-weapons development in Ukraine.

He says the laboratories need to be located close to the targets of the gene weapons to replicate the necessary environmental and demographic conditions. Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
🚨Congress is debating an EMP first strike to disable Russian planes.

They're calling it a "non-kinetic no-fly zone."

Here's a better name: "WW3."
This proposal is so insane that it would be funny, if there weren't lawmakers pushing it.

To ground Russian jets with an EMP, you'd need to detonate a nuclear warhead.

The "non-kinetic" option is literally a nuclear first strike.
The claim that "sonar" could be used to ground Russian fighters is... incomprehensible?

It uses sound waves to detect objects underwater.

It doesn't magically stop planes from taking off.

Even our best electronic-warfare systems don't have that capability.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 7
The torture videos of Maxim Ryndovskiy have revealed that few people understand how falsification works.

Karl Popper must be rolling over in his grave, hearing much of the debate on Twitter. 🧵
To falsify the videos, you'd need to show tattoos he had before that *aren't* in the videos.

That would be strong evidence, since tattoos are rarely removed.

Nobody has done that. There are no missing tattoos.
What people have done is post undated photos, where he had fewer tattoos.

They then argue that the torture victim in the video can't be Mr. Ryndovskiy, since he had "extra tattoos."

Seriously? You're not aware that people can, and often do, get more tattoos over time?
Read 6 tweets
Mar 5
SITREP Day 10: Many analysts are predicting an imminent defeat of the Russian military.

In reality, Russia is on the verge of annihilating the bulk of the Ukrainian army.

The people denying this are gaslighting you.
No, I'm not exaggerating.

This viral thread from a prominent "expert" claims the Russian military is days away from collapsing and suffering the worst defeat in history.

Another, even more popular thread predicts the course of the war from looking at tires.

It claims that maintenance problems observed on a few vehicles show that Russian forces are doomed.

Read 18 tweets
Mar 5
The life of another "disloyal" lawmaker is under threat in Ukraine.

Nestor Shufrych was detained on questionable charges by vigilantes and handed over to Ukraine's security services.

Photos of him in custody imply he was threatened with beheading. 🧵
Officially, Mr. Shufrych, a People's Deputy of Ukraine, was arrested for taking photos of a Ukrainian checkpoint.

It is claimed, implausibly, that he was acting as a spy passing information to the Russians.
In reality, it's clear that his detention is based on his politics.

That was made obvious in his rough interrogation by Ukraine's successor to the KGB (the SBU).

Here, he's being threatened for public statements in which he called for an end to the war in Donbas.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
The biggest danger at #Zaporizhzhia isn't a nuclear meltdown.

It's that NATO will use that overhyped risk to ratonalize entering the war.

This is classic wartime propaganda playing out before our eyes.
You know what produces more radiation than a reactor meltdown?

A nuclear war. Between the United States and Russia.

We aren't talking about another Iraq War. This is a conflict that could end the human species.
Two critical points about #Zaporizhzhia:

1. The reactor design means this isn't a second Chernobyl scenario.

2. NATO air strikes would *increase* the danger at the nuclear plant right now.
Read 5 tweets

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