Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Mar 8 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨Congress is debating an EMP first strike to disable Russian planes.

They're calling it a "non-kinetic no-fly zone."

Here's a better name: "WW3."
This proposal is so insane that it would be funny, if there weren't lawmakers pushing it.

To ground Russian jets with an EMP, you'd need to detonate a nuclear warhead.

The "non-kinetic" option is literally a nuclear first strike.
The claim that "sonar" could be used to ground Russian fighters is... incomprehensible?

It uses sound waves to detect objects underwater.

It doesn't magically stop planes from taking off.

Even our best electronic-warfare systems don't have that capability.
The closest thing to a plausible claim here is the idea of using cyber attacks to disrupt Russian flight operations.

It's highly unlikely this would work: at most, there would be secondary impairment of Russian C&C.

The planes would almost certainly be able to take off.
But if it *did* work it would be the form of cyber attack most likely to escalate to full conventional war.

If cyber is used to disable kinetic assets, the line between cyber and kinetic operations blurs.

The Russians would be very charitable to respect the distinction.
In sum, this is all so completely insane that none of it will happen.

But the fact it's being discussed at all is an indictment of our political class.

You have to be a special kind of stupid to believe in a "non-kinetic no-fly zone."

Dumb enough to be a member of Congress.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Mar 9
🚨 Russia is escalating its controversial claims about U.S. bioweapons in Ukraine.

Today, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences -- Alexander Bartosh -- claimed America was developing *gene weapons* in Ukraine targeting Slavs. 🚨 ImageImage
To be clear, I am NOT endorsing the theory that America was developing gene-weapons in Ukraine.

I am *reporting* on this messaging from Russia's national-security establishment.

What Bartosh says is believed by the Russian public, and affects their support for the war.
Bartosh claims that it's not a coincidence the U.S. was performing anti-slavic gene-weapons development in Ukraine.

He says the laboratories need to be located close to the targets of the gene weapons to replicate the necessary environmental and demographic conditions. Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
The West thinks sanctions are hurting Putin.

They have it backwards: His power inside Russia is surging.

A thread on what analysts are getting so wrong. 🧵
Objectively, Putin's poll numbers have improved since the lead-up to and onset of the war.

This was predictable – a "rally 'round the flag" effect is common for wartime president.

In less than 2 weeks, his approval rating spiked 10 points – from 61% to 71%.
Many in the West are predicting that this effect will be short lived.

Analysts think that Russians will sour on Putin if the economic situation in the country continues to worsen.

But there's a gaping hole in their theory: Russians don't think the war was Putin's fault.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 7
The torture videos of Maxim Ryndovskiy have revealed that few people understand how falsification works.

Karl Popper must be rolling over in his grave, hearing much of the debate on Twitter. 🧵
To falsify the videos, you'd need to show tattoos he had before that *aren't* in the videos.

That would be strong evidence, since tattoos are rarely removed.

Nobody has done that. There are no missing tattoos.
What people have done is post undated photos, where he had fewer tattoos.

They then argue that the torture victim in the video can't be Mr. Ryndovskiy, since he had "extra tattoos."

Seriously? You're not aware that people can, and often do, get more tattoos over time?
Read 6 tweets
Mar 5
SITREP Day 10: Many analysts are predicting an imminent defeat of the Russian military.

In reality, Russia is on the verge of annihilating the bulk of the Ukrainian army.

The people denying this are gaslighting you.
No, I'm not exaggerating.

This viral thread from a prominent "expert" claims the Russian military is days away from collapsing and suffering the worst defeat in history.

Another, even more popular thread predicts the course of the war from looking at tires.

It claims that maintenance problems observed on a few vehicles show that Russian forces are doomed.

Read 18 tweets
Mar 5
The life of another "disloyal" lawmaker is under threat in Ukraine.

Nestor Shufrych was detained on questionable charges by vigilantes and handed over to Ukraine's security services.

Photos of him in custody imply he was threatened with beheading. 🧵
Officially, Mr. Shufrych, a People's Deputy of Ukraine, was arrested for taking photos of a Ukrainian checkpoint.

It is claimed, implausibly, that he was acting as a spy passing information to the Russians.
In reality, it's clear that his detention is based on his politics.

That was made obvious in his rough interrogation by Ukraine's successor to the KGB (the SBU).

Here, he's being threatened for public statements in which he called for an end to the war in Donbas.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
The biggest danger at #Zaporizhzhia isn't a nuclear meltdown.

It's that NATO will use that overhyped risk to ratonalize entering the war.

This is classic wartime propaganda playing out before our eyes.
You know what produces more radiation than a reactor meltdown?

A nuclear war. Between the United States and Russia.

We aren't talking about another Iraq War. This is a conflict that could end the human species.
Two critical points about #Zaporizhzhia:

1. The reactor design means this isn't a second Chernobyl scenario.

2. NATO air strikes would *increase* the danger at the nuclear plant right now.
Read 5 tweets

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