CNN reports: "Chinese retail investors are snapping up stocks with even the slightest link to trade with Russia, as they bet on closer economic ties between the two countries following unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow."

cnn.com/2022/03/08/inv…
Shares in Jinzhou Port, China's most northern seaport with direct shipping routes to Russia, has shot up 94% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since Feb. 24, the beginning of Moscow's military operation in Ukraine.
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain — a logistics company for bulky goods in far northwestern Xinjiang, which directly shares a 60-mile border with Russia — has also jumped 95% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange over the past seven sessions.
Even toll road operators and rail freight service firms have surged since the war began. Heilongjiang Transport Development, a main operator of highway tolls in northeastern Heilongjiang — which shares a 1,850-mile border with Russia, has climbed 23%.
Important to note, this is mostly smaller investors. Bigger players on the market are behaving more cautiously so far, will likely try to fully assess the limitations imposed by Western sanctions before making a decision about their investments.

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More from @DimitriASimes

Mar 12
I try to stay away from editorializing on here, but I will make an exception for this New Yorker interview with Princeton historian Stephen Kotkin.

Kotkin makes some bizarre claims about Russian history which should be addressed. Let's begin 🧵

newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/s…
Some background first: Editor David Remnick asks Kotkin about the role of NATO expansion in causing the #UkraineConflict.

Kotkin goes on a weird essentialist rant in which he claims that Russia has always been an aggressive, autocratic power that hostile to the West. Image
Let's begin with the "suspicion" of Westerners part.

That claim doesn't really hold up scrutiny for the Russian Empire, which was modeled by Peter I on European absolute monarchies. Post-Peter, Russian monarchs spoke numerous European languages and had European relatives.
Read 26 tweets
Mar 12
The problem with this piece is that it basically goes from Ivan IV to Putin, and draw a completely straight line through 500+ years of Russian history.

Totally ignoring the legions of nuances or trying to do any comparisons with other European societies of the time.
I mean for example, Tudor England also had political centralization, state-backed violence against its subjects, and a subordination of the church to the regime.

So…not all that different from Russia under Ivan IV. Maybe the 1500s are not the point of divergence after all?
In fact, Russia’s political development for most of its history has been very closely aligned with that of Europe. The Russian Empire was explicitly modelled after European absolute monarchies by Peter I. Centralization and absolutism were continent wide trends
Read 8 tweets
Mar 3
Since the US and the EU are significantly cutting back economic ties with Russia, urgently pivoting to Asia is probably a top economic priority for Moscow right now.

There are definitely big opportunities in pursuing that route, but also a lot of challenges. Thread 🧵
Let's start with some historical context, specifically the initial outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. Back then the West also imposed sanctions against Russia and Moscow vowed to pivot to Asia. Initially, however, Russia's trade fell with a lot of Asian countries.
For example, Russia's trade turnover with China fell by 27.6% in 2015.

This was largely a byproduct of Russia's overall economic downturn and an adjustment period to Western sanctions. I think it's fair to expect a similar initial downturn in 2022-23.
themoscowtimes.com/2016/01/13/rus…
Read 14 tweets

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