The problem with this piece is that it basically goes from Ivan IV to Putin, and draw a completely straight line through 500+ years of Russian history.
Totally ignoring the legions of nuances or trying to do any comparisons with other European societies of the time.
I mean for example, Tudor England also had political centralization, state-backed violence against its subjects, and a subordination of the church to the regime.
So…not all that different from Russia under Ivan IV. Maybe the 1500s are not the point of divergence after all?
In fact, Russia’s political development for most of its history has been very closely aligned with that of Europe. The Russian Empire was explicitly modelled after European absolute monarchies by Peter I. Centralization and absolutism were continent wide trends
By 1914, Russia was a constitutional monarchy with a parliament that had real power and influence (although balance of power favored the Tsar).
There was also a fairly free press and burgeoning trade union movement that was able to gain real political concessions.
All of that changed following the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. So that’s probably a more accurate “turning point” for Russia than Ivan IV.
But the Bolsheviks were also lead by intellectuals who grew up reading Western manifestos and spent extensive time abroad.
So in other words, it’s very a strange decision to blame Ivan IV for a totalitarian political system that was established by followers of Karl Marx, a German philosopher who died in London.
But even then, you can’t draw a straight line from Lenin or Stalin to Putin. There are enormous ideological, political, and economic differences between Putin’s Russia and the USSR. Putin has both denounced the Soviets and praised them.
I think that Putin’s Russia is best understood as a hybrid state that was largely formed by the chaos following the collapse of the USSR. This is an entirely new Russia, although it obviously draws upon some of its prior history.
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Some background first: Editor David Remnick asks Kotkin about the role of NATO expansion in causing the #UkraineConflict.
Kotkin goes on a weird essentialist rant in which he claims that Russia has always been an aggressive, autocratic power that hostile to the West.
Let's begin with the "suspicion" of Westerners part.
That claim doesn't really hold up scrutiny for the Russian Empire, which was modeled by Peter I on European absolute monarchies. Post-Peter, Russian monarchs spoke numerous European languages and had European relatives.
CNN reports: "Chinese retail investors are snapping up stocks with even the slightest link to trade with Russia, as they bet on closer economic ties between the two countries following unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow."
Shares in Jinzhou Port, China's most northern seaport with direct shipping routes to Russia, has shot up 94% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since Feb. 24, the beginning of Moscow's military operation in Ukraine.
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain — a logistics company for bulky goods in far northwestern Xinjiang, which directly shares a 60-mile border with Russia — has also jumped 95% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange over the past seven sessions.
Since the US and the EU are significantly cutting back economic ties with Russia, urgently pivoting to Asia is probably a top economic priority for Moscow right now.
There are definitely big opportunities in pursuing that route, but also a lot of challenges. Thread 🧵
Let's start with some historical context, specifically the initial outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. Back then the West also imposed sanctions against Russia and Moscow vowed to pivot to Asia. Initially, however, Russia's trade fell with a lot of Asian countries.
For example, Russia's trade turnover with China fell by 27.6% in 2015.
This was largely a byproduct of Russia's overall economic downturn and an adjustment period to Western sanctions. I think it's fair to expect a similar initial downturn in 2022-23. themoscowtimes.com/2016/01/13/rus…