The Director of National Intelligence released the annual threat assessment today & intel leaders testified before the House Intel committee. A hot take thread:
1/ The assessment is outdated, literally & figuratively. Doc is dated Feb. 7 with info as of Jan. 2022. It's March 8.
1/ The assessment is outdated, literally & figuratively. Doc is dated Feb. 7 with info as of Jan. 2022. It's March 8.
2/ We are seeing massive geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Why is the document not updated to reflect latest or at least more recent thinking? Suggests the annual threat assessment process is still moving at the speed of bureaucracy, not threats.
3/China is still clearly threat #1. Document & testimony made that clear. Russia is the hurricane. China is climate change. It's the long-term strategic threat to US values, US tech and economic leadership, US military power projection in Indo-Pacific and world, and int'l order.
4/General theme: it's all getting more complex and confusing. Spread of tech enabling small groups and weak actors to do big harm; climate change; great power competition; COVID/ bio threats, dem erosion. All interacting. A moment of great uncertainty, new dynamics.
5/ In space, sh*t is getting real. Insiders knew it, but public comments are noteworthy. "China has counterspace- weapons capabilities intended to target U.S. & allied satellites. The PLA is fielding new destructive & nondestructive ground- and space-based antisatellite weapons."
6/Very interesting language about Iran suggesting that Tehran has both interest and capability in taking lethal action not just via proxies in ME, but also inside the US.
7/Don't forget the nukes. The assessment makes clear Russia is the most formidable nuclear threat. China is expanding its arsenal dramatically. India and Pak are both nuke powers with grievances and a dangerous border. Nuclear weapons are not Cold War relics.
8/Hypersonics, hypersonics, hypersonics.
9/ Cyber discussion is more sprinkled, assessed more by actor vs. standalone category. But the IC focuses on the big 4: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea. Concern that Russian state and criminal cyberattacks may increase--so patch up, everyone!
10/Testimony about Russia/Ukraine: Putin is ruthless and thought this would be easy. He miscalculated. Likely to be protracted. IC judges Ukrainians will continue to resist fiercely. It will be hard for any puppet regime to operate.
11/Read the document here. More testimony later this week. dni.gov/index.php/news…
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