Been thinking about #Teixeria's fast arrest in the #IntelligenceLeak case and how it showcases the changing nature and rising power of open-source intel. A thread. 10 years ago, open-source investigations into the Boston Marathon bombing were shoddy and scary. The wisdom of the crowd became the danger of the mob. Well-intentioned amateurs on Reddit fingered innocent people. It took more careful work by law enforcement to get the truth.

Some thoughts on the #leak investigation and what we don't know yet. 1. Has the bleeding stopped? Are there more classified docs floating around the Internet that haven't yet been discovered? 2. How did the leaker access these docs? In the course of his normal duties/access or did he use other measures like social engineering (which is what Snowden did) to gain access he did not ordinarily have?

Thoughts about the #Chinesespyballoon, intel history, and lessons learned. A thread.
Q1: Why did the US in 1960 (when a U2 was shot down over the USSR) and the Chinese last week say that spy activities were weather missions when everyone quickly knew it wasn't true? The answer is fig leaves can often be very useful b/c official acknowledgement of truth can escalate a crisis. After the Soviets invaded Af, the US launched a covert op to arm the Mujahideen.The Soviets knew, & we knew that they knew. But both superpowers pretended otherwise.

1/9 A thread about this story and why the Biden administration's release of low-confidence intel in an effort to coerce/deter/message #China & #Russia is such a bad idea. nbcnews.com/politics/natio… 2/9 Trust in intelligence is essential but fragile. The more the Biden admin releases low-confidence intel, the more likely the intel will be wrong. And the more intel is seen as wrong, the less anyone will believe it even when they should.

1/5. The Biden Admin's unfolding #intelligence strategy was front and center in the #Xi-Biden call today. The essence of the strategy, I think, is revealing to coerce. Disclosing secrets may not stop all bad actions, but it can shape adversaries' behavior to our advantage. 2/5 How? By raising costs & decreasing room for adversaries to hide, pretend, maneuver. With the war in Ukraine, exploiting the wedge between Russia and China is critical. Disclosures that back Beijing into a corner publicly help do that. And that's what we're seeing.

The Director of National Intelligence released the annual threat assessment today & intel leaders testified before the House Intel committee. A hot take thread:
1/ The assessment is outdated, literally & figuratively. Doc is dated Feb. 7 with info as of Jan. 2022. It's March 8. 2/ We are seeing massive geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Why is the document not updated to reflect latest or at least more recent thinking? Suggests the annual threat assessment process is still moving at the speed of bureaucracy, not threats.