Thread by @koreanforeigner

Seeing how the polls close at 7:30pm, a 60%+ turnout by 1pm (including early votes that were cast on the weekend) is a pretty good turnout. Only four more hours to go.

koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20…

Dang. 68.1% voter turnout by 3pm.

https://twitter.com/yonhaptweet/status/1501441367629000705

At the 2pm mark, South Jeolla, North Jeolla, and Gwangju (Honam) are showing the highest turnouts. Honam has firmly sided with the progressives for years. So, right now, things are looking pretty good for Lee Jae-myeong.

But the prize will be Seoul and the greater capital area. Half of South Koreans live there. How will the turnout look? By age, gender, income bracket? Lots of people have said lots of things during the election. Now, we get to find out who's right and who's wrong.

69.5% voter turnout at the 4pm mark.

For historical context, these are the voter turnout rates in previous South Korean presidential elections.

As of 6pm, 75.7% of voters turned out. It's estimated that the voter turnout will exceed the last presidential election turnout, which was at 77.2%. We might (possibly) even exceed 80%.

Polls close in 6 minutes.

https://twitter.com/yonhaptweet/status/1501494289804587013?t=opF8tuxCTuSppiDzpAsk7Q&s=19

Polls have officially closed all over South Korea. Now all that's left to do is to count the ballots. This is going to be a long night, folks.

It's still early. But according to SBS News, Yoon Seok-yeol is leading with 48.4% of the total projected votes. Lee Jae-myeong is close behind with 47.8%. But it's still early. These numbers will change as the evening progresses.

I'm sticking with SBS News. They're using Mad Max style graphics to show the exit results.

I wasn't joking.

So far, the various provinces are voting the way they have traditionally voted. Seoul is the main prize. Right now, Yoon is leading in Seoul. But not by a wide margin.

SBS News is now using inline speed skating graphics. Meh. Mad Max was better. Also, seeing either of those candidates in full body Spanx is not pleasant. Even if they're in CGI form.

Exit polls are showing that 58.7% of men in their 20s voted for Yoon. To be honest, that's lower than I expected.

I don't know what is going on anymore.

Sure. Why not?

*snort* Figures.

Going back to that exit poll number showing that only 58.7% of men in their 20s voted for Yoon, that number is really not as high as I thought it was going to be. Sure 58.7% is still a lot, but it's not the 76~78% that I expected. Young men might still have hope, after all.

Final voter turnout is estimated to be around 77.1%, which makes the turnout 0.1% lower than the turnout for the last presidential election.

https://twitter.com/yonhaptweet/status/1501527315263942662?t=ywMErS8xR8hfLLDO0z7Dkg&s=19

This is MBC News' online service. The caption at the bottom says that if you want to listen to only the Minjoo Party, plug your left earphone into your ear. If you want to hear only the People Power Party, plug your right earphone into your ear. Talk about a literal echo chamber.

SBS is now reusing the same videos that they showed earlier. But if you wanted to see for yourself a small sample of their videos, here it is.

An SBS reporter is saying that the mood at People Power Party's HQ is subdued. Yoon isn't winning by the wide margins that some of the polls showed during the campaign season. A lot of expert pollsters said that the polls that showed Yoon far in the lead were, at best, dubious.

It appears that at least some in the People Power Party might have gotten high off their own products.

That being said, the Minjoo Party can't be feeling too comfortable yet either. The voter turnout this year is 0.1% lower than in the last presidential election. Many have posited that Lee Jae-myeong would need a high voter turnout to have a comfortable lead over Yoon.

So far, only about 4% of the cast ballots have been counted. We've got a LONG way to go.

Currently, Lee Jae-myeong is winning by 51.7% to Yoon Seok-yeol's 45.2%. Lee has gained a significant number of votes from the Honam region (which has heavily favored the Minjoo Party for years). But, once again, it's still too early. These numbers can and will likely change.

Analysts are saying that many progressives who favored the Justice Party decided to vote for Lee Jae-myeong (Minjoo Party). They don't much care for Lee, but they loathe Yoon Seok-yeol (but much more than Yoon, they loath the People Power Party chairman - Lee Jun-seok).

With 8.8% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 50.1%. Yoon is in second place with 46.7%.

Lee's camp is still not celebrating. It's too early, and the votes in the Honam region are being counted more rapidly than the votes in other regions. The Honam region was always going to vote overwhelmingly for Lee. Lee needs to do better in the other provinces to relax.

With 10.9% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 50.2%. Yoon is in second place with 46.6%.

We've got new graphics!

Bubbles? I don't know why.

Lee has taken the lead in Seoul. Seoul is the grand prize that both candidates absolutely need to clinch to win.

SBS News is currently using two different AI programs to calculate who has the chance of winning the election with current votes tallied.

The first AI says Lee's chance to win is at 65.4% to Yoon's 34.6%.
The second AI says Lee's chance to win is at 77.7% to Yoon's 22.3%.

With 17.1% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 50.0%. Yoon is in second place with 46.8%.

I get it. Twitter hungers for the Mad Max video.

With 25.3% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 49.9%. Yoon is in second place with 46.9%.

Yoon is slowly catching up to Lee.

With 30.9% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 49.5%. Yoon is in second place with 47.2%.

With final votes tallied going up faster than Yoon's vote count, Yoon should start to feel really nervous now.

With 35.2% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 49.0%. Yoon is in second place with 47.7%.

Is that a gigantic teddy bear performing a K-pop concert? Yes. Yes, it is.

This is the panel offering their analysis. I honestly don't know how expert they are, but what's noteworthy is how polite these people are. I remember watching US cable news panels during the Bush v Kerry election. There is no screaming or calling people socialists here. Weird.

With 39.3% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 48.7%. Yoon is in second place with 47.9%.

Neither Lee nor Yoon is going to sleep tonight.

Scratch that. 48.7% vs. 48.0%

Leaving behind the numbers for now, I want to bring your attention to Lee Jun-seok. He is the 36-year-old chairman of the People Power Party - Yoon's party. No matter who wins this election, it is my sincerest hope that this anti-feminist troll will get fired from his job.

With 42.9% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 48.6%. Yoon is in second place with 48.1%.

This will down to the wire!

With 45.7% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 48.5%. Yoon is in second place with 48.1%.

With 49.2% of the total votes counted, Lee is currently leading with 48.4%. Yoon is in second place with 48.2%.

As of three minutes ago, 50.9% of the votes have come in. And both are tied at 48.3%

And Yoon overtook Lee in the vote count.
Yoon 8,308,552
Lee 8,306,245

Yoon has overtaken Lee in the percentage count, too.

Yoon 48.4%
Lee 48.2%

Total votes counted 52.6%

With 57.5% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.5%. Lee is in second place with 48.1%.

Last I checked, Yoon is leading Lee with a little under 60,000 total votes counted so far.

Now that SBS is on a commercial break, I just want to say thanks to everyone who is keeping up with my thread. I know that a lot of you feel invested in the results, whether you are South Korean citizens or not. Thanks for caring!

And we're back.

With 66.9% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.6%. Lee is in second place with 47.9%.

It is currently 1:00am March 10 in South Korea.

There are likely many South Korean feminists (myself included) who are worried about what it will mean if Yoon wins the election. He has blamed feminism for South Korea's slumping birth rate and to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family.

It's also true, however, that Lee wasn't a strong ally to feminists either. While he tried to outreach to women toward the last days of the campaign, he also made it a point to cancel interviews with feminist media outlets simply because they were feminists.

Many feminists might have felt compelled to vote for Lee because they found Yoon (and Lee Jun-seok) far more unappealing.

Regardless, a lot of people are now more worried than they probably were a few hours ago.

With 72.3% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.7%. Lee is in second place with 47.8%.

With 76.2% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.7%. Lee is in second place with 47.8%.

The percentage gap between the candidates' vote counts has remained static.

SBS News' AI programs are back. With the current tallied votes, the AI programs have new predictions on who will win.

The first AI now puts Yoon's chances of winning at 85.6% to Lee's 14.4%.
The second AI now puts Yoon's chances of winning at 88.7% to Lee's 11.3%.

One more video. We had Mad Max earlier. In this video, Lee and Yoon appear to be on a romantic camp getaway? I dunno.

With 82.3% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.7%. Lee is in second place with 47.8%.

That 0.9% gap between the candidates stubbornly refuses to budge.

Yoon Seok-yeol: 48.66% vs Lee Jae-myeong: 47.77%
Yoon: 13,881,645 votes vs Lee: 13,626,217 votes
Vote difference: 255,428 votes
Percentage of votes counted: 84.47%
Current time: 2:13AM KST

The panelists are back. They have compared Yoon's attacks on feminism as a type of Trumpism. "Even if it might lead to short-term electoral gains, it will lead to long-term societal problems." Hear, hear!

For non-Koreans who might be wondering how things will be different with Yoon as president vs Lee as president in regards to South Korea's policy, the answer is "not much."

It's true that Yoon said he'd teach Kim Jong Un a lesson in manners (he actually said that) and he said he would reject President Moon's 3-Nos (no further THAAD deployment, no trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan, and no participation in US missile defense system).

But what a politician says during campaigns and what he/she does while governing are not the same thing.

Relations with North Korea depend more on North Korea than on South Korea. And North Korea is determined to go its own way, and not care about South Korea.

South Korea will never abandon its trade relations with China. However, South Korea's ally is the US, and South Koreans don't trust China. South Korea has chosen the US and will continue to choose the US. That will not change.

Yoon said that he wants to improve relations with Japan. But he has not said how he'll do that. It's also important to note that anti-South Korean sentiments in Japan are also a thing. Japan can't just switch it off.

Campaigning and governing are not the same.

Lee Jae-myeong has said that he resents that South Korea has to choose between China and the US. He has also said that he would reject installing more THAAD batteries. But South Korea's foreign policy is often dictated by factors outside of the South Korean president's control.

It wouldn't matter if Yoon or Lee won when it comes to foreign policy. While there might be some change in rhetoric, it's hard to see that it would lead to any real substantial change.

The differences will be domestic.

Lee has promised to push for greater welfare and UBI, Yoon promised greater market freedom. Yoon has said he'd abolish the Gender Ministry. Lee promised to uphold it.

With 88.8% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.6%. Lee is in second place with 47.8%.

Lee Jae-myeong just emerged from his home. Without saying anything to the press, he got in his car and took off. It's not clear where he is going, but it is possible that he might be going to Minjoo Party HQ.

With 91.1% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.7%. Lee is in second place with 47.8%.

Lee has arrived at Minjoo Party HQ, but he has not gotten out of the car. While it's unclear, it appears that he is waiting for something before he enters the building.

With 94.3% of the total votes counted, Yoon is currently leading with 48.6%. Lee is in second place with 47.8%.

Vote count:
Yoon: 15,473,642
Lee: 15,234,984

Police presence has increased dramatically in front of Yoon Seok-yeol's home. It appears that Yoon will also be leaving his home soon, too.

South Korean broadcaster KBS has just projected that Yoon Seok-yeol will win the presidential election.

Lee has emerged from his car, and he has been greeted with applause and cheers from his supporters. They're chanting his name.

Lee is expected to make an announcement to the press "soon."

Right now, it's estimated that only about 260,000 to 270,000 votes separate Yoon and Lee.

Lee's speech is about to start.

He is making a concession speech. He thanked his supporters and apologized for failing to win. He says he takes full responsibility for the electoral loss. He has congratulated Yoon for winning.

Lee: I trust the people. In spite of the pandemic, the people took part in the elections. I hope that we will quickly overcome the pandemic and that we can return to our normal lives.

Quick speech. It's over.

Yoon has not yet left his home.

Lee got back in his car and left Minjoo Party HQ.

Yoon emerged from his home and is addressing the press from the front of his home. He has thanked his supporters for their help. He is shaking hands with his supporters while he is being escorted by security to his car to go to the People Power Party HQ.

SBS is still not referring to Yoon as President-Elect Yoon. They are still calling him Candidate Yoon. Until he reaches what is called "a magic number" of votes, which was fewer than 350,000 votes when it was shown 15 minutes ago, he is not yet the President-Elect per SBS News.

Yoon now needs to win 180,000 more votes to officially be declared as the President-Elect.

Yoon will now address People Power Party members. PPP members are chanting "President Yoon Seok-yeol.:

Just five years after the last conservative president was impeached, another conservative president has been elected.

Ahn Cheol-soo is sitting on the front row next to Yoon.

SBS News has just referred to Yoon as President-Elect Yoon.

Yoon's speech has started.

Yoon: "I have learned much from this race. This wasn't my victory or Ahn Cheol-soo's victory or that of the party's. This was the people's victory. I would also like to thank Lee Jae-myeong and Sim Sang-jung. They have enriched our democracy."

Yoon: "I have learned what is needed to be a nation's leader through this election. And I have learned that all we do is for the people. Now that the election is over, we should unite to serve the people."

Yoon: "As President, I will respect the Constitution, the National Assembly, and I will work with the opposition party to best serve the people. Also, the People Power Party and the People Party will merge to serve the people. I ask you for your help in the coming days."

And that's the end of his speech.

And that is also the end of my coverage of the election and this thread. It's now 4:30AM here. Whether you're pleased or disappointed with the election results, thank you for reading along for the past 10 hours. Have a good night/day, or at least try to.