Thread by @koreanforeigner

Some people might be hoping that now that Yoon Seok-yeol will assume South Korea's presidency in May, South Korea and Japan might be able to take steps to improve relations. I am here to tell you not to hold your breaths because, you know, it takes two to tango.

Yes, a lot of South Koreans don't have a lot of love for Japan. But it's also true that a lot of Japanese don't have a lot of love for South Korea, too. But the Japanese sentiment toward South Korea is more tinged with apathy than resentment.

Combined with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's cabinet that is full of hardliners, Japanese apathy toward South Korea means that Kishida has no incentive whatsoever to make any concessions to South Korea regarding comfort women, historical issues, etc.

South Korean conservatives might be more willing to improve ties with Japan than their progressive counterparts. But it's important not to overstate that desire. After all, they're also South Koreans as much as the progressives are. Anti-Japanese sentiment runs deep.

Yoon will have to work with a hostile National Assembly for at the first two years of his presidency. Appearing too conciliatory toward Japan despite the lack of resolution in historical disputes would not look well upon the conservatives when legislative elections come around.

For the foreseeable future, while I expect the rhetoric going back and forth between Seoul and Tokyo will be less frosty than it has been, it's hard to see both countries becoming actually more cordial with each other. That will take a LOT more time.

Furthermore, while some might take comfort in the fact that Yoon said that he will always keep the door open to talk with North Korea, this is an empty promise because, again, it takes two to tango. North Korea has no interest in talking to South Korea.

For the past five years, the North Koreans couldn't have asked for a more conciliatory South Korean president than President Moon Jae-in. He has tried to improve relations with North Korea, visited North Korea, and also facilitated summits between Kim Jong Un and Trump. Thrice.

But Kim Jong Un basically spit on Moon's face and slammed the door on him because Moon couldn't convince the US to drop sanctions - something that Moon had no power or even hope of accomplishing.

Moon couldn't deliver EVERY SINGLE THING that North Korea wanted. So, Kim Jong Un threw a temper tantrum and blew off Moon. And now, the mechanisms are in place. North Korea's economy is suffering from two years of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine will make fuel more expensive.

Trump left in 2020, and Moon will leave in a few months. Now, the closest thing to a friend that Kim Jong Un has left is Xi Jinping. And the word "friend" is being used loosely.

Kim Jong Un is left with nothing but missiles and nukes. And he can't be seen as being conciliatory to Yoon Seok-yeol - the man who said he'd teach him a lesson as though he were just a little boy. Kim has his own reputation to think about.

Yoon's only stated foreign policy goal that he can realistically hope to accomplish is improved ties with the US. Ties with the US wasn't nearly as bad as many of Moon's critics (myself included) feared it would be. There were annoyances and tension, but nothing damaging.

That will be an easy fix for Yoon.