@Josh_Young_1@sohaibab9@SHOPGod2 This is a great article to contextualize the Russian oil (formerly) imported into the USA and why. Plus a thread with some of my own research (copy/paste) from a crude assay database available to me thru my day job (1/x) globalenergyprize.org/en/2022/02/22/…
(2/x) The key for the United States is that we were using M-100 fuel oil to replace the heavy sour oil we were importing from Venezuela before those sanctions kicked in. M-100 is really just atmospheric resid from an atmospheric crude distillation unit (aka "topped crude")
(3/x) I know from first hand knowledge (detailed refinery tour I took several years back) that the refinery in Sweeny Texas built a Delayed Coker Unit (DCU) specifically designed to run Venezuelan crude (vacuum resid feed from the CDU/VDU in Sweeny) on a long-term contract basis.
(4/x) It was built as joint venture where PdVSA paid a significant portion of the capital cost. For a Delayed Coker Unit (DCU) the capital cost is in the billions and they take no less than four to five years to build if everything goes smoothly (without supply chain problems).
(5/x) Even when I toured the plant in 2011ish they were unhappy with their Venezuelan suppliers and "wanted to get away from dealing with them".
Moving on...
(6/x) Here is some more information I pulled on the other two main Russian blends from the article that I pulled from the database. (This is not my work and is a direct copy/paste)
(7/x) EPSO
Grabbing more data brb in a few.
No discussion of Russian crude would be legitimate with mentioning #Urals
(9/x) Venezuelan Crude. How about some Merey? Not for the faint of heart! And that last line (40% Russian interest) will be a sticking point!
(10/x) "Crude quality matters" For (most of) Europe that means light sweet and for (most of) the USA that means heavy sour. You can tell a refinery's ability to process more challenging crude by its Nelson Complexity Index en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_co…
(11/x) India can take whatever you throw at it including the cheap M-100, and they will do it if the price is right. Their refineries are new, complex, and they have plenty of Coking capacity. If I were pres I would have worked this out with India before announcing oil sanctions.
Biden could have leveraged the memory of the Trump-Modi love fest and enlisted the former admin to get it done. Would have been some nice bipartisanship. An olive branch.
(13/x) Let's check in on that Maya crude from Mexico. It's a tough nut to crack and you have to have a DCU to do it efficiently. Otherwise you need ungodly amounts of hydrogen, which is expensive, even more so under high nat gas prices.
(14/x) Mexico has had refinery problems for years with low utilization rates, but from the article it sounds like they are finally getting the kinks worked out. They've been importing refined products for years, it's no surprise to me that they are getting away from that.
(15/x) Now, what you've all been waiting for! Let's take a look at some Canadian crude. (brb digging up more data)
West Canada Select (WCS) the #COM screams at their phones. Yes, friends here it is (all these images are copy/pasted from an assay database, NOT my work).
(17/x) Cold Lake seems to be popular too in the database. Let's see what that looks like.
(18/x) And finally (for now) Kearl.
(19/x) You definitely, absolutely cannot process any of this stuff without robust carbon rejection refining technologies and fully revamped hydroprocessing units to accompany. With the IMO 2020 0.2 wt% sulfur in fuel oil regulations visbreaking any of that stuff is out.
(21/x) Without a lot of changes, costing tens of billions of dollars and years and years of engineering and construction, most refineries in Europe will never be able to process any of the heavy crudes I've listed including those from Canada.
(22/x) India could though if you could get it shipped there 😜 I'm surprised it hasn't been tried. Or maybe it has and I'm not aware. The problem I see is that you'll end up shipping a lot of diluent, and it won't get back to the tar sands where you need it.
(23/23) Done for tonight, its getting late. Thanks for coming to my TED talk 😎
.@JoeBiden@SecGranholm If we in the United States want the Eurozone to keep up #RussianSanctions thru this winter in support of #Ukraine we need to be loading boats with coal so power producers have proper stockpiles... RIGHT NOW! We should be all hands on deck!!! @JavierBlas
Otherwise Europe will be at risk of grid shutdown/blackouts or some kind of #SriLankaCrisis will ensue. This is not a joke. If the grid shuts down in the middle of winter, people will die like they did here in Texas during the Uri freeze of Feb 2021.
Recommend discussing privately with energy ministers/secretaries in each country. Different fuel mix for each country between nat gas/coal/oil/etc. Rationing as is currently planned will NOT be enough. Consider Defense Production Act to support allies of #Ukraine