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Rob Lee

@RALee85

May 12

Looks like Sergei Shoigu is being replaced. Putin has nominated Andrei Belousov as the next Minister of Defense.
tass.ru/politika/20775…

Shoigu will be replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council. 2/

tass.ru/politika/20775…
tass.ru/politika/20775…

Peskov said that Gerasimov will remain as Chief of the General Staff and Patrushev will be transferred to another position that will be named later. 3/
t.me/tass_agency/24…

Read 5 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

May 3

When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face.

If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.

All weapons have vulnerabilities, and you mitigate those vulnerabilities through combined arms. When several of those arms are weaker (e.g. infantry, artillery, air defense), because of attrition or a lack of ammunition, others will be more vulnerable as well.

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Apr 26

Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.

Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/

The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/

Read 25 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Apr 21

Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
t.me/robert_magyar/…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499964226374406145

From the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 3/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499964226374406145

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Apr 18

Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

t.me/milinfolive/12…
t.me/RVvoenkor/66374

Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/

t.me/vdd98/3092
t.me/vdd98/3165
t.me/vdd98/3131
t.me/vdd98/3103

Videos from the past two weeks showing reported Russian FAB-250 and FAB-1500 UMPK, UK RBP Grom, and artillery or S-8 strikes in the Chasiv Yar area. 3/

t.me/vdd98/3089
t.me/vdd98/3170
t.me/vdd98/3006
t.me/vdd98/3075
t.me/vdd98/3062
t.me/vdd98/3053