Thread by @billroggio

1) A look at the military situation in eastern and central Ukraine, & around the capital of Kiev. This will use several maps, from @nytimes & @Bcc. First the overall picture, using map from @nytimes. The strategic situation for Ukrainian force in Kiev & to the east is not good.

@nytimes @Bcc 2) There hasn't been a lot of movement by the Russians overall (compared to the first week that is), however it appears the Russians are consolidating their positions, preparing/positioning, and moving with the goal of the encirclement of several key regions.

@nytimes @Bcc 3) Russian forces are moving to cut off the far eastern areas close to the Donbas region, both northeast of Mariupol, and east of Izyum.

@nytimes @Bcc 4) While the @nytimes map doesn't show it, @nytimes reported that Polohy, NE of Mariupol, is occupied by Russian forces. However the map does show UKR battleline north of Polohy.

@nytimes @Bcc 5) There are also credible reports that the Russians are seeking to march on the city of Dnipro on the Dnieper river. @nytimes maps shows this. If the Russians can take Dnipro (this is an operation that should take weeks to unfold) then the eastern half of Ukraine would be cut.

@nytimes @Bcc 6) In the south, RUSMIL appears to be bypassing Mykolaiv & pushing north. Russian forces likely don't have the manpower/resources to lay siege to the city, & can blockade/starve it instead. RUSMIL likely pushing to the South Ukraine nuke plant & Odesa to shut off Black Sea.

@nytimes @Bcc 6) The north: Russian forces continue to push to complete an encirclement of Chernihiv province while pushing to also encircle Kiev. The city of Chernihiv remains defiant but is close to being cut off in a wide pincer movement. UKR troops caught in this pocket will be cut off.

@nytimes @Bcc 7) Kiev: Russian forces are on the outskirts of the city & are facing fierce resistance from UKR military & territorial forces. Russian forces are now positioned north, west & east of the city. Russian forces continue to position its forces for a siege & possible assault.

@nytimes @Bcc 8) Ukrainians still have an escape valve to the south. It is unclear if the Russians plan on full encirclement or will leave this valve open. Speculation: Russia wants to take the city and/or collapse gov't. Letting the UKR forces retreat is a time-honored way of achieving this.

@nytimes @Bcc 9) Back to the bigger picture: Does Russian want to take all of Ukraine, or sever it in half and leave a pliant, demilitarized rump state in the west? If the latter, then ...

Linking in this thread, all apologies for the break in continuity.

https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1501584972196495361

* That should read "Poholy, NW (northwest) of Mariupol"