Senior Fellow, @FDD
Editor, @LongWarJournal
Terrorism Analyst
"Never let us be guilty of sacrificing any portion of truth on the altar of peace." - J.C.Ryle
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Aug 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1) August 12, 2021: Taliban seize control of the Afghan provinces of Badghis, Ghazni, Herat, Kunduz & Sar-i-Pul. The 1st province, Nimroz, fell on August 6, and was followed by Badakhshan, Farah, Jowzjan & Takhhar. By August 12, 10 of the 24 provinces were under Taliban contol.
2) General Milley and others claimed that Afghanistan fell in 11 days, and the collapse of the 1st province on August 6 is the origin of that myth. Afghanistan was collapsing, district by district, long before that. We documented it at @LongWarJournal longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliba…
Aug 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) Yet another datapoint on how to know we know we lost the War on Terror: the government couldn’t even convict KSM, Attash & Hawsawi for 9/11. Kill 2,976 people, wage War on the USA & destroy billions in property? Life in prison. Shameful isn’t a strong enough word.
2) Well played, U.S. government, good to know you have our backs. The American public should be outraged and the administration should be flayed by the press for agreeing to this. But this will pass with barely a whimper.
Jul 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) The U.S. foreign policy establishment still hasn’t internalized the fact that at best, and this is extremely charitable, that Pakistan is a frenemy, and in reality, our enemy.
2) Pakistan funded and supported the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and out ignominious death.
Jul 23 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1) Conspiracy Theory 101: Someone needs to tell & its cadre of supporters that letters recovered from Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad confirmed that Saad bin Laden was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2009. Oh, and Zawahiri confirmed Saad's death in 2012.
2) Reports of Hamza's death are murkier. President Trump and SecDef Esper confirmed his death in 2019, however U.S. officials have been wrong about issues such as these in the past. The fact they put their names to it indicates U.S. intel has high confidence Hamza is dead.
Jul 18 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1) The “bonds are close”: The UNSC Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report on Afghanistan provides rich details on the Taliban and Al Qaeda's support for the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/…2) Some nuggets, all should be unsurprising for long time readers of @LongWarJournal : The TTP “continues to operate at significant scale in Afghanistan and to conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there.”
Jun 13 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1. Rewards for Justice has offered a $5 million bounty for Hamza al Ghamdi, a veteran Al Qaeda leader who has been waging jihad since the 1980s. He is currently a member of Al Qaeda's shura (executive leadership council). longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/…2. Hamza al Ghamdi fought alongside Osama bin Laden against the Soviets, led bin Laden's bodyguard, organized terror attacks in Tajikistan in the 1990s, and fought at the battle of Tora Bora.
Jun 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1. From @BRRubin, who competes with @realZalmayMK for the dishonor of being the greatest Taliban apologist: "[Sirajuddin Haqqani] no longer poses a threat to Americans." thediplomat.com/2024/06/why-di…2. Siraj Haqqani is a Specially Designated Global Terrorist and his Haqqani Network is a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Both designations are explicit that he and his network are avid supporters of Al Qaeda.
May 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) “the solution [in the Red Sea] is not a military solution” - Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Christopher Grady
This is what general officers and politicians say when they don't have the stomach and political will to deal with a difficult enemy. news.usni.org/2024/05/01/nav…2) The U.S. has barely tried to degrade the Houthis' military capability, and there has been zero effort to target Houthi military and political leadership. But there is no political will to do so. Instead, U.S. leaders are content with playing defense.
Mar 21 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Yesterday, the House Foreign Affairs Committee punted on its chance to grill retired generals Milley and McKenzie for their role in the failure of Afghanistan. My thoughts, and the questions they should have been asked, at Generation Jihad /1
The reality is that republicans are fearful of criticizing the military and can’t distinguish between grunts on the ground doing their jobs and political generals like Milley and McKenzie. The deferential treatment was disgraceful /2
Feb 7 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) @EFittonBrown joined @caleb_weiss7 & me to discuss the latest UNSC Monitoring Team report on Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Give it a listen, Edmund is the go to source on this. longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/…2) @EFittonBrown explains the Monitoring Team’s process of gathering the information for the report and dispels the bad “analysis” on this subject.
Feb 2 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
1) Keep in mind that @JJSchroden couldn't have been more wrong about the effects of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. 180 degrees wrong in fact. And the fact that he defers to @US4AfghanPeace, who is eager to deal with the Taliban...
1) Al Qaeda is now running training camps in 10 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, as well as 5 madrasa, a new base “to stockpile weaponry,” and facilitation network into Iran. All per the UNSC Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team. longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/…2) The raining camps are in the provinces of Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan, Uruzgan, Helmand, Zabul, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Badghis, and Kunar, per current and previous Monitoring Team reports. For previous report, see: longwarjournal.org/archives/2023/…
Jan 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) The Biden administration just can't stop themselves from signaling weakness, restraint and indecisiveness. “We don’t seek a war with Iran. We’re not looking for a wider conflict in the Middle East,” - John Kirby cnn.com/2024/01/29/pol…2) “In fact, every action the president has taken has been designed to de-escalate, to try to bring the tensions down.” - John Kirby
Jan 29 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
1) @JoeTruzman and I warned in early November 2023 that the @POTUS viion of "deterrence" against Iranian-backed militias had failed, and further attempts to reestablish deterrence would also likely fail. See: longwarjournal.org/archives/2023/…2) This is what we said then: "The Biden administration’s Oct. 27 attempt to deter Iran and its proxies from further strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria has failed ... "
Jan 4 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
1) On the U.S. strike in Baghdad that killed Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi, a commander of the Iranian-backed Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba militia. First, Si'adi is a mid-level commander. this strike clearly was a message to militias: we can go after your top leaders. longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/…2) The strike is the first by the U.S. that targeted an actual militia commander. The previous six strikes targeted weapons depots, safe houses, and vehicles used in attacks.
Dec 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1) As bad as I thought. I missed this detail about Operation Prosperity Guardian, from Dec. 21:
"It's a defensive coalition meant to reassure global shipping and mariners that the international community is there to help with safe passage." defense.gov/News/News-Stor…2) The coalition, with the U.S. in the lead, is defensive in nature. That means that the coalition will not be targeting Houthis missile and drone launch sites, Houthis military and political leaders, or that Iranian intel ship providing targeting information for Houthi attacks.
Dec 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Want to send a message to the Iranians about the costs of launching drones against commercial shipping and supporting Houthi attacks in the Red Sea? Take out this IRGC drone platform. While in port is just fine. Rinse and repeat with other IRGC naval assets.
However, the Biden administration fears escalation, and the Iranians know it. The administration and the military have been quite clear about this in public communications. This administration doesn't understand deterrence.
Dec 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) Putting aside the absurdity of the premise of this article, and the fact that Israel has joined the ranks of nations that lawyer up for war, one has to wonder how many lawyers Hamas consults on a daily basis. apnews.com/article/israel…2) For instance, prior to its Oct. 7 attack, did Hamas military commanders sit down with its legal team and ask the following questions:
Dec 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1) John Kirby continues to dance on the head of a pin with respect to Afghanistan. The U.S. had zero plan to account for billions in weapons donated to the ANDSF & now in hands of terror groups.
Keep in mind Kirby previously call the withdrawal a "historic achievement."
2) Kirby was half right about his "historic achievement" comment. The Afghanistan withdrawal indeed historic. Just not an achievement. Unless you are the Taliban, Al Qaeda, Pakistan, Iran, etc. Then it was one hell of an achievement.
1) The son of influential Hezbollah commander Musa Ali Daqduq is reported to have been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Syria last week. Hassan (the son) was a member of the "Golan Unit." Musa is the commander.
2) At the direction of Iran, Musa Ali Daqduq was tasked back in the early 2000s with establishing the Shia militias in Iraq, including the Mahdi Army and its offshoots such as Hezbollah Brigades, Asaib Ahl al Haq, and others along the lines of Lebanese Hezbollah.
Dec 10, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
1) “Hamas warned Sunday that no hostages would leave Gaza alive unless its demands for prisoner releases are met …” don’t hold breath for international condemnation over this. yahoo.com/news/israeli-f…2) Hamas threatens to kill the hostages it took during a barbarous act of war during its Oct. 7 invasion of southern Israel, and yet somehow Israel is the problem here.
