Faisal Islam Profile picture
Mar 9 13 tweets 3 min read
Coming up - fascinating iv with Governor of Central Bank of Ukraine, targeting both inflation, & every hard currency flow into Russia, while keeping cash machines and refugees bank accounts functioning.

Wants more sanctions & reflects on precedent set in targeting a central bank
NEW:
BBC learns Russia suspended from Bank for International Setttlements, as requested by Ukraine CB Governor in interview with us yesterday.

“BIS will not be an avenue for sanctions to be circumvented. access of Central Bank of Russia to all BIS services..has been suspended."
Worth unpacking what Kyrylo Shevchenko, the NBU Governor, told us, about the sheer breadth of how Ukraine is trying to get whole of Russia to reap the economic consequences of Putin’s decision to invade… painstakingly trying to seal up every pipe of hard cash into Moscow…
1… Governor Shevchenko called on seized assets of Russian oligarchs, which now include Chelsea Football club, to be used to pay “reparations” for the “huge money” required to rebuild Ukraine after Russia’s bombing and invasion…
“We already see the effect [of sanctions] on the aggressor’s financial system, but we are still waiting for more to be done. I would like to underline that every day that sanctions are delayed is costing the lives of civilians and children,” Mr Shevchenko said.
Shevchenko also confirmed Around 11bn hryvnia ($350m, £280m) has been paid in to the two special accounts set up by the National Bank of Ukraine to receive donations for the military and for humanitarian causes…
3. Extra sanctions Ukraine wants on Moscow:
*getting data platforms Bloomberg/ Refinitiv to terminate Rus access
* severing correspondent relationships with Russian banks
* expulsion from BIS (now suspended)
* block Russian access to IMF and World Bank
* China Union Pay block
4. Requested sanctions…

*Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikstan, Turkey and Vietnam to block the Russian payment system Mir
* Western Union to cease delivery of cash to Russian and Belarusian banks
5. asked Governor if he was worried about precedent of ignoring sovereign immunity, set re Central Bank Russia

He pauses. "I can answer from bottom of my heart. We see that CBR supports military invasion and thus is also guilty, responsible in deaths of civilians in Ukraine".
6. He said importance of energy sanctions not just about cash but to demonstrate to Russian people Kremlin was lying:

“They are using it to misinform the Russian public about the West’s unwillingness to take tougher measures, out of fear of losing access to Russian oil and gas”
7. Shevchenko coordinating this while trying to maintain Ukraine’s financial system, physical access to cash at ATMs, financial system access for Ukrainian refugees, while sometimes operating from bunker…”can proudly say that Ukrainian banking system remains stable and liquid”
Full story from @benedict_king of our fascinating interview with the central banker on a financial frontline…

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Another sanctions ask in this interview with Ukraine CB Governor has materialised today with Western Union money transfer suspending operations in Russia and Belarussia

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More from @faisalislam

Mar 10
Abramovich sanctioned by UK government…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Govt: RA “a pro-Kremlin oligarch.. assoc with a person who is/has been involved in destabilising Ukraine & undermining & threatening territorial integrity, sovereignty & independence of Ukraine, namely Vladimir Putin, with whom ABRAMOVICH has had a close relationship for decades”
Govt says that steel maker Evraz Plc over which Abramovich “exercises effective control” “is or has been involved in … potentially supplying steel to the Russian military which may have been used in the production of tanks”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
Gas down 25% to 374 pence a therm - still extremely high, just not as off scale…

Economists such as Capital Economics now see avg fuel bills 2.5-3k, inflation peak at over 8%, (or nearly 11% on Retail Price Index), and perhaps as important remaining above 6% for rest of 2022… Image
Seen a few of these - significant diesel spike with margin above petrol here up at 18 p - normally 3-4p. to be clear these are well above average price, but at these most expensive stations, diesel not far off £2 a litre… and already above £100 a tank…
Average prices via RAC are 158p for unleaded and 165 for diesel…

Yesterday the petrol station I filmed at lunch time at 158/ mid 160s, had gone up over 3-4p per litre by 9pm… Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
Looks like quite the olive branch/ off ramp to Putin here from President Zelenskyy:

“The people who elected me are not ready to surrender, we are not ready for ultimatums. But we can discuss with Russia the future of Crimea and Donbas”. president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayi…
…in particular regarding the recognition of the independence of the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Head of State noted that a compromise is possible on this point… 👀
Zelenskyy: “It is important to me how people who want to be part of Ukraine will live there. I am interested in the opinion of those who see themselves as citizens of the Russian Federation. However, we must discuss this issue…”
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
Poland hands over all its MiG jets to the USA… who will replace with equivalents, and asks other western nations with MiGs to do the same… gov.pl/web/diplomacy/…
The Polish Air Force obtained the Mig-29s from direct purchases as Soviet Union fell, and from East German and Czech air forces too…
about 70 similar planes around NATO countries that could be used by Ukrainian AF pilots, apparently… considerable upgrade on Ukraines 98 combat aircraft, 37 Migs pre-war… danger to those massive Russian columns.

But interested to know why drones aren’t the most effective itc
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
NEW
EU announce ambitious plan to cut the 155 billion cubic metres of Russian gas consumers by Europe to 50 by the end of 2022

* EU wide turning down of thermostats by 1C saving 10bcm
* frontloading renewable 20bcm
* LNG diversification 50 bcm
* pipeline diversification 10 bcm
This seems, rather ambitious.

And the politics of telling 450 million people to turn their thermostats down by 1 degree - how will it be enforced?
Little reference to coal or nuclear… energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2…
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
NEW:

Shell announces “its intent to withdraw from its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons, including crude oil, gas and LNG in a phased manner, aligned with new government guidance”. 

Stopping spot purchases of Russian crude and shutting its petrol stations there
The embargo on Russian oil is happening non officially… contributing to price rises…

Shell were called out by the Ukrainian foreign minister over the weekend …
Another example of Ukraine using leverage via multinationals for diplomatic means, to continue to squeeze Moscow…
Read 4 tweets

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