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Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
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Mar 10 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
MiG-29s are focus, which has been unfortunate, because what Ukraine really needs is more air defense systems they already operate, including highly mobile ones that can reposition quickly and keep Russian airpower forced into the MANPADS envelope. Big feature on this coming soon!
The impact a couple dozen Fulcrums will have eventually when they actually get there is debatable. And they will be a prime highly centralized target on the ground. Then there is the risk issue sure. But medium+ alt SAMs provide a far more enduring and persistent threat.
And enable the massive MANPADS arsenal now in country.
Hot off the digital press!

Ukraine needs ground-based air defenses way more than MiGs. Here are the best options:
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

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More from @Aviation_Intel

Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Mar 8
👀 vids on Star Wars Starcruiser. Corny/$$$/fully interactive 2-night stay. Been compared to Westworld, but after watching for a bit, it hits me: Whole deal was the robots were trapped in tortuous loops to entertain tourists in Westworld, but on this thing, they are real actors!
I can't imagine how much energy it would take to do this with hundreds of people that have paid big bucks day in and day out. It's sort of mind blowing and freaky. People say they are totally exhausted getting off this thing, imagine being the main characters?!?
And literally, these are total loops with finite storylines and many mini storylines within that reset every two days when a new crop shows up for the experience. Just like Westworld.
Read 4 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Feb 27
What's a positive endgame for Russia now? I don't see 1 maybe aside from proclaiming securing the newly recognized states, expanding grip on Donbas, & obtaining a Crimea landbridge a victory & calling it a day by exiting the conflict via negotiation. Otherwise Russia gets what?🧵
A puppet government nobody listens to under constant attack via a horrific insurgency funded by the richest countries on the planet with a huge stake in seeing Russia ground down to a bloody stump? Oh and this only came via:
-Killing massive civilians and throngs of your own troops in a horrific urban conflict
-Turning all goodwill towards your country that existed globally into straight-up hatred
-Absolutely destroying your economy near term and the prospects for any growth long term
Read 10 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Feb 26
For an urban fight, Ukraine needs unguided rockets, like AT4, M72, or Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles. Javelin not as useful in tight, running, urban battle. You can also buy big numbers of these for the price of a single Javelin missile. AT4 & M72 Run around $1400-2500...
A single Javelin in recent budget runs $216K-265K for missile alone, not the CLU targeting unit. Lowest I have ever heard it is $75k, likely a misrepresentation but still. So you can deliver scores of these other weapons for the cost of a single Javelin...
But not even about the $ it's about what is most useful for different combat environments. Javelin still absolutely critical as most the fighting won't be in highly urban areas. Javelin is incredibly effective.
Read 4 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Feb 23
If there was ever an advertisement for nuclear proliferation, this would be it.

The world has failed miserably in making denuclearization/non-proliferation the smart move in the new millennium.
A lot of arms control folks are brilliant, but some of them seem to be totally lost in idealism over reality.
Relying on someone else's 'maybe' nuclear umbrella seems less of a good bet than it was a couple decades ago too. Pieces on the board have moved significantly. Asia in particular.
Read 5 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
Some great behind the scenes images from the production of Airwolf were sent to me by the son of A. Mac Queen who was one of the stunt pilots on the show. Here Mac Queen and another on the crew are troubleshooting something on celeb chopper while in hover.
These guys were having a ball supporting Airwolf and a number of shows like A-Team and movies like Blue Thunder that had modified helicopter stunt flying in huge demand.
Blue Thunder on deck!
Read 12 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Nov 14, 2021
We just updated our Checkmate story again. Some interesting product card info: 8G jet and claiming a full internal load range of 1740 miles. Rough 870 combat radius, profile dependent. That is really high of course and could be very attractive...
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…
...for potential buyers. This may be especially true for air arms without organic tanking capabilities or very limited ones. We are also hearing that the mature avionics ported over from the Su-57 will be a huge thing in the pitch for this thing. No word on Su-57's...
DIRCM system will be an option yet. We would guess so. That is also a one of a kind capability at this time. All of this is still preliminary of course. I mean $30M is also the supposed price, which is probably impossible without HUGE subsidization.
Read 12 tweets

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