Thread by @RadioFreeTom

I don't care about the people making bad-faith "why are you scared of Putin" arguments. But I think the "why not match his aggressiveness" question is a reasonable one and deserves an answer. I can only speak for myself here, obvs.
/1

I am not concerned about "provoking" Putin in the sense of pissing him off. He's already pissed off; that's his natural state now. But this is a true crisis - that is, there's a high risk of general war and an unsustainable situation. /2

The outcome of this crisis may well be that NATO will have to fight. If that happens, so be it. But a crisis is something you try to prevent from getting out of control. You do what you can to defend your interests while not letting a terrible fire become a conflagration. /3

On that score, I *am* concerned about stability. I have no real fear that Putin is going to go nuts and order a massive strike on America. He knows how that ends. But I am worried that he is reckless and, frankly, not that competent. He has always been a lousy strategist. /4

Worse, he's desperate. This was a gigantic blunder and now it is turning into an existential and *self-inflicted* threat to his regime. He will take more gambles now because there's now an asymmetry of interests. Ukraine and America and NATO will survive; his regime might not. /5

So when Putin says, for example, "weapons are interference," I couldn't care less; he knows that to stop this, he'd have to attack NATO. If he does...again, he knows how that ends. He's going to yell about assistance to Ukraine. Let him. He created this.
/6

Also, I am sure there are Russian elites around Putin who hate him for this war. But NATO blasting the crap out of Russian positions (which we could do easily)? That's a different world. If I were Putin *and his men*, facing defeat from NATO, I might take some huge risks. /7

This is different than saying "Give in to nuclear threats." I argued for ignoring his initial threats. I still do. But I am not in favor of creating a situation where so much military action is in play that one misstep can become a cataclysm *even Putin* doesn't want. /8

In effect, I'm saying that Biden and NATO have to be the more responsible parties here to protect world peace. And yes, that sucks. But Kennedy had to help Khrushchev out of the Cuban bungle, even though that was no fault of the United States. /9

Our goals should be to raise the costs of war to Russia while closing off Putin's attempts to inflict the burden of escalation on *us*. If he wants to escalate, he should have to take the step. This is a tight needle to thread, that's why we pay diplomats and elect leaders. /10

Putin is losing this war, even if he "wins" in the short term. Russia will be weaker when it is over. If refusing to be baited into war while Putin is destroying his own army seems like "weakness" or "being afraid" to you, I can't help you. /11x