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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 30
How will Russia's war in Ukraine end?
Both nations are very tired now, the Ukrainians more so, but Ukraine knows this is an existential war, it is not for Russia, only for Putin himself.
Ukraine spend 50% of GDP on the war, Russia only 7% & they complain. It tells you all. /1
After World War II, no imperial power has won a serious, prolonged imperial war. Russia won in Chechnya, which is not big, leading Putin to the wrong conclusion. Ukraine is too big & united to be defeated by a mindless colonial power, which Putin can't understand. /2
We are all caught in historical precedents.
Putin clearly thinks Chechnya, but it had 1.5 million inhabitants, while Ukraine had 40 million when the war started.
My precedent is Germany in 1918: Its revolution stopped a mindless war, while German troops stood abroad. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 30
It is so tiresome to hear all these commentators saying that Trump's actions are "unprecedented" or that we are in "unchartered" waters. They say so to avoid criticize the president, who deserves all the criticism he can get. /1
1. As we all know, Trump lies all the time. During his first term, the Washington Post catalogued & counted his 32,000 lies, but now its billionaire owner Bezos has stopped this truth-telling.
All journalists should have a moral duty to say that Trump lied, whenever he did. /2
2. As we all know, Trump persistently violates many laws, but commentators avoid saying so. Do! Considering that Trump has bought the majority of SCOTUS, we should not consider its verdicts as necessary in line with law or the US constitution. /3
Read 9 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 27
Stunning how weak US institutions are.
Trump wants crony capitalism = the accidental ruler is allowed to seize what he wants & give benefits to his darlings.
1. Proven corrupt SCOTUS gives him legal immunity.
2. GOP Congress does whatever POTUS says. /1
3. Trump starts trade wars against the whole world (apart from Russia) & nobody but China seems to be able to stand up to him. The Congress lies flat.
4. Trump cuts taxes for billionaires so that they finance his destruction of the economy as Hitler once did & they obey. /2
5. In order to protect his irresponsible fiscal policy, Trump undermines the Federal Reserve presumably boosting inflation, possibly to inflate away the excessive US public debt. Will any force be strong enough to defend the independent central bank? I doubt it. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 25
Incredible that Trump does not understand that Putin will refuse to see Zelensky until the bitter end.
Putin's reasons are many.
1. On July 12, 2021, Putin published his big declaration of war on Ukraine: ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“...
Its essence was that no Ukrainian nation existed, since it was merely part of Russia.
But, of course, Trump got rid of Alexander Vindman, Fiona Hill & John Bolton who understood what this meant and went for Witkoff et al who know & understand nothing.
/2en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
2. For those faint-hearted who did not read or understand Putin's first declaration of war, he issued two more on December 17, 2021, calling for the elimination of Nato's whole enlargement from 1997 etc.
The Biden administration understood but should have armed Ukraine more. /3
Read 9 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 24
Thoughts on Alaska one week later:
1. Trump's invitation of Putin to US soil remains a massive betrayal of everything that the US stands for.
2. His invitation did nothing positive: Putin won & Trump appears his obedient servant. /1
3. Yet, Putin's victory was limited. Trump did not do 3 things (that I had feared).
A. He did not clearly side with Putin.
B. He did not end the US sanctions on Russia.
C. He did not instigate big US-Russia economic cooperation. /2
4. The August 18 Trump meeting with Zelensky & 7 top European leaders was a surprising success.
Uncharacteristically Trump was courteous as were the Europeans, but they held firmly in favor of Ukraine.
Trump was impeded in expressing his love for Putin. /3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 21
A few observations on the US-Russia-Ukraine-EU discussion on the war in Ukraine.
1. Witkoff has outstandingly understood absolutely everything & knows nothing about Russia. Incredible that Trump does not fire even him. The dumber & morte naive you are, the more Trump likes you.
2. Lavrov has made clear that Russia has made NO concession (couldn't he help us by saying that Witkoff is an idiot?). Russia denies Ukraine's right to exist as a nation. Only Trump & Witkoff appear dumb enough to miss that point. The other Trump people just go along.
3. Positively, Ukraine & Europe (minus Hungary) understand & arm as fast as they just can.
4. Impressively, Ukraine has developed lots of new arms, notably long-distance missile Flamingo 3000km. Ukraine needs to hit Russian key targets, oil, electricity & Moscow.
Read 9 tweets

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