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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 10
Trump insists on being the dumbest & most uninformed US president ever, causing the US tremendous damage, while enriching himself through dubious deals. What Trump has got wrong:
1. He claims that everybody has "ripped the US off," but the US GDP is 25% of global GDP as in 1980.
2. The US has thrived on the "exorbitant privilege" of foreigners investing $31 trillion (June 2024) in US bonds & stocks. The US is the greatest debtor in the world with a public debt of $36 trillion, $29 trillion in US treasuries.
If Trump was honest, he would thank.
3. Few countries can have a steady budget deficit of about 6.5% of GDP each year - $2 trillion a year - & find cheap financing.
4. The US stock market amounted to 70% of all global stock market capitalization thanks to US hi-tech & Biden's reliability.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 5
Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency has caused tremendous damage to the US government & virtually nothing good:
1. By and large, it has operated against the law leading to hundreds of suits & no sustainable positive effects. /1
2. What one would have hoped that software engineers would have done is badly-needed digitization & simplification of government services, but apparently they have done none. /2
3. DOGE seems to have acted with a Putin agenda: End US soft power & international good deeds, closing USAID with food aid & epidemiological foresight.
4. DOGE has closed down US government media outreach - Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty & Voice of America for Putin. /3
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 4
Everything is wrong with Trump's economic policies. Today, the US has the most incompetent economic policymaking of any developed economy & most emerging economies.
1. The prime US economic problem is an excessive public debt of 120% of GDP & budget deficits of 6.5% of GDP... /1
...The obvious cure is to force the wealthy Americans & their companies to pay taxes - many of them pay nothing. The US public expenditures are tiny by international comparison. /2
2. The US has a current account deficit because it consumes too much, far more than it saves.
Trump refuses to acknowledge this obvious fact instead blaming all foreigners for "ripping off" the US.
This is a blatant lie depriving the US of all good will. /3
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 2
In the last two weeks, US markets of all kinds have recovered.
I think this is a big mistake. Trump's tariff policy remains mad & enormously harmful to the US & the world.
He has still quadrupled US income tariffs & made the US the enemy of the whole world. /1
As everybody points out, Trump is unable to accept truth, to apologize or to retreat. Therefore, the US/Trump disaster is set to continue as long as he rules.
The GOP congressmen could stop it, but they are too cowardly.
The US billionaires are even more dastardly (cf Bezos) /2
It is claimed that Canadian PM Mark Carney checked Trump on April 9. Let us wish him a successful meeting with Trump next week!
Foreigners can gradually withdraw from the US treasury market & Trump will stew in his juices.
The alternative is a great depression. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 2
Let me state the obvious again:
Nobody has ripped the US off as Trump so mendaciously claims.
On the contrary, the US has benefitted from an exorbitant privilege, that his predecessors & sound US institutions have imbued trust in the US $ & US treasuries. /1
Therefore foreigners held $30,881 billion of US securities on June 30, 2024, while the US GDP was merely $28 trillion. Of this $7.1 trillion was foreign holdings of US treasuries, of which $3,557 billion was held by foreign governments. /2
…ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-cente…
Everybody but Trump seems to understand that the outside world has financed the massive US public debt of $36 trillion with $2 trillion or 6.5% of GDP being added each year.
The US needs to behave decently if it is to continue attracting foreign funding. /3
Read 9 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Apr 29
Increasingly, the American public (save Navarro & Lutnick) realize that Trump's high & unjustified tariffs are qualified madness.
Tariffs are taxes paid by Americans.
But they are not decided by Congress (which they should be).
They disrupt trade & may cause shortages. /1
Tariffs boost US prices.
Trump's capricious tariff policy has disrupted all confidence in the US economy & US assets.
Trump has made it unwise or worse to invest in the US.
At the same time, Trump undermines the fundamental rule of law in the US. /2
The US has benefited from the exorbitant privilege of great recognition as the safe haven of the world.
In 100 days, Trump has eliminated this international trust.
Absurdly, he claims that kind foreigners lending the US government credit are "ripping it off". /3
Read 6 tweets

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