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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jul 2
A few thoughts about Trump's trade policy:
1. Nothing in his trade policy makes sense. The US has not been ripped off but benefited from its exorbitant privilege that foreigners wanted to invest in the US & US treasuries before madman Trump destroyed it all.
2. Trump insists on extreme protectionism with tariffs up to 50% & probably with an average of 25%, while they used to be 2.5%. This makes no economic sense as pretty much all economists know. Trump is damaging the global economy, but most of all the insular US economy.
3. Worse, Trump focuses on tariffs because there he has complete power. To enforce his power, he changes his policy virtually every day. There will be no stabilization as many have hoped. Thereby, Trump has made it nearly impossible to invest in the US.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jun 23
Tomorrow on June 24, the NATO summit will start with a dinner & conclude with a minimal session on June 25.
All fear that Trump will declare that he loves Putin - his kleptocracy, autocracy & imperialism. Yes, Trump is awful. State that! /1
Next, the ideologically real NATO members are afraid that Trump will attack Ukraine, while the whole purpose of NATO is to stand up to Russia and defend free democracies, but Trump hates democracies and freedom. /2
So why are the other NATO members sucking up to the US? Because the US has the biggest and finest military resources. That does not matter much to the other NATO members when Trump behaves like an imperialist (=enemy) wanting to seize Greenland & Canada. Trump is the enemy. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jun 20
Trump's economic policy:
1. Wild protectionism = less growth & investment.
2. Changed policy every day = complete uncertainty.
3. Undermining the rule of law & property rights.
4. Driving foreign investors & nationals out of the US.
5. Hindering profitable immigration.
/1
6. Minimizing government support to research.
7. Harming the best US universities.
8. Risking fiscal unsustainability.
9. Harming the poor to cut taxes for billionaires.
10. Blatant personal corruption.
Trump stands for an economic disaster like 1929.
/2
If democracy survives in the US, the consequences will be massive, as in the 1930s:
1. If a budget deficit can no longer be financed, it has to be balanced.
2. Given the minimal US federal expenditures, taxes on the very rich have to rise sharply. They were max 91% until 1962. /3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jun 6
A few thoughts on Russia's war against Ukraine:
1. Trump does whatever he can to support Putin. His problem is that most republicans support Ukraine, so he gives them an opportunity to cheat themselves to claim that Trump supports Ukraine. /1
2. Consequently, Trump always finds a reason not to increase sanctions on Russia. Yet, the republican opinion compels him not to ease the existing sanctions.
Conclusion: Shame the hypocrite Trump so that he does not dare to turn fully against Ukraine! /2
3. Both Europe & Ukraine need to shame Trump into playing an ally against russia (which he is not, while the US is).
But don't count on the GOP cowards in Congress to stand up against Trump!
Arm Ukraine & yourselves as fast as possible! /3
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jun 6
My understanding of the Trump-Musk conflict:
1. Musk considers that he bought Trump's presidency & that Trump should behave as his obedient servant.
2. Trump acknowledges that Musk bought him & allowed dozens of regulatory concerns to lapse & $20 billion of gov contracts. /1
3. Neither could care less about any social safety net for the poor.
4. Both wanted to minimize taxes for billionaires at the expense of the poor.
5. Musk wants to punish the poor even more than Trump to reduce the budget deficit. /2
6. Trump, with his experience of bankruptcies, could not care less about US financial sustainability, while Musk apparently does.
7. Trump opposes all immigration, while Musk wants to give smart Indians H1B visas.
8. Musk is deeply wedded to China, while Trump is hostile. /3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 27
It is frustrating to read most American comments on Trump.
They tend to think that Trump is a serious president favoring the US. Instead, they should take the lunacy he utters seriously.
At best, Trump pursues his own PR, but more likely it is just lunacy. /1
Trump has made plain that most of all he is interested in enriching himself & his family.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa caught the essence: “I'm sorry we don't have a plane to give you.” Incredibly, Trump responded: “I wish you did. I'd take it.” /2
Trump has also made clear that he could not care less about democracy, the rule of law, truth, science, healthcare, US reputation in the world, etc.
He has abandoned all traditional universal, American & Western values. /3
Read 4 tweets

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