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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jul 21
A few thoughts on Biden's decision not to seek reelection:
1. Biden & his presidency how look outstanding. He got more legislation done than either Obama or Clinton & appears utterly decent. All rightly praise him now. He stood up for his country rather than for himself.
2. Kamala Harris has become very active and now seems to swiftly round up full democratic support. Nobody appears to challenge her. The party is happy to have one legitimate & competent candidate.
3. Harris is a terrible adversary for Trump, as she is now shows in her videos:
Now Trump looks as hopelessly as he is.
Abortion is a top issue, but Trump & Vance oppose abortion.
Harris is a prosecutor & rule of law candidate, while Trump is a convict & con man.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jul 10
Elementary understanding of Russia:
1. In order to be respected by Russia, you have to stand up to Russia. (Check Germany & Finland in World War II).
2. Not to stand up to Russia is to encourage Russia to escalate.
3. Russia does not recognize any red lines. It goes as far as it can.
4. To invent Western red lines for Russia is to help the Kremlin in the war (note to the White House).
5. Putin will NEVER use nuclear arms because he will not survive that & he is all about himself.
6. You have to make Russia respect you. In war, the best way of doing so is to offer all force as early as possible.
7. Russia will become very reasonable as soon as it is beaten. Therefore, the Western policy must aim at Ukrainian victory & Russian defeat.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jun 15
How to look upon Putin's Russia:
1. Putin needs permanent war to stay in power. It gives him imperialist legitimacy & a cause of repression. Therefore, Putin is today's Hitler. He will not stop, so the only end to his war can be his ouster or death.
2. The sooner Putin dies or is ousted, the earlier the war will end. Therefore, the West needs to do everything to make sure that Ukraine wins (not only "prevails") and that Russia is defeated (not only "fails").
3. This means that the West needs to give Ukraine all the arms it needs asap & allow Ukraine to hit whatever they care to hit in Russia.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 21
For months, the Biden administration has rightly blamed Trump & his GOP for blocking aid to Ukraine, but with the wonderful US Congress decision to support Ukraine with $61 billion, the tables have suddenly been turned. What is the Biden administration doing?! /1
Russia is attacking Kharkiv, Ukraine's 2nd biggest city close to the Russian border, but the US is loudly prohibiting Ukraine to defend itself by using US arms to bomb the Russian bases on Russian territory.
Who was dumb enough to insist on this policy?
Jake Sullivan...?
In parallel, the US has called on Ukraine not to bomb Russia in any way - no factories, in particular no oil refineries (that produce diesel & fuel for the Russian armed forces), while it says nothing about it with regard to Iran & Israel. /3
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 15
Since 2004, the Putin group has lived on Gazprom money. Nemtsov and Milov assessed that they embezzled $60 Billion during the four years 2004-7. Their revelation sank the Russian stock market in 2008.
But Gazprom made a loss of $6.9 billion in 2023.
What can Putin steal now? /1
The obvious answer is the arms procurement funds. That requires a change of guard & Shoigu's larceny must be contained.
The loyal Belousov can neutralize the Defense Ministry leadership so that it costs less & does not interfere in Putin's new business. /2
The FSB is cleaning out the top military cadres that stole more than they were supposed to, led by Shoigu & Timur Ivanov. Logically, Shoigu should be arrested, though not necessary. /3
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 14
Excellent @washingtonpost article about Russia's new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, but let me add a few things since I knew him quite well in the 1990s and early 2000s. Belousov belonged to the circle of liberal economists around late Yevgeny Yasin...
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/…
...at the Higher School of Economics, which also included Elvira Nabiullina, but he was always the most Soviet among them. He could stay in this liberal circle by being soft-spoken, cautious & courteous, focusing on politically neutral forecasting.
However, I knew his father Rem (Revolution+Engels+Marx) Belousov, who was a very conservative Marxist Leninist Professor of Economics at the Academy of Sciences & Andrei was a very loyal son. I could not understand how the tolerant & fine Yasin could accept him with his views.
Read 7 tweets

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