Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Anders Åslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Dec 15
Trump economic policy appears nothing but folly:
Overheating leading to high inflation, high interest rate, labor shortage, larger budget deficit and bigger public debt.
Initially, economic growth may stay strong, but it is not sustainable.
A mass expulsion of workers in agriculture, hospitality & construction will inevitably lead to higher food and restaurant prices, which will drive inflation.
Trump has promised massive tax cuts, especially for billionaires and corporates. If he really managed to get that through Congress in 2025, the already huge US federal budget deficit of 6.6% of GDP will become truly disastrous, because the Musk budget cuts are unrealistic.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Nov 15
Suddenly, the US stock market has soured on the Trump presidency. The most obvious explanation is that Fed is not likely to cut the interest rate as much as anticipated, since inflation just rose. But this is hardly the full explanation./1
Trump's policies are all likely to boost inflation:
1. Kicking out millions of immigrant workers when the US has full employment (4.1% unemployment) = wage inflation.
2. Tariffs raise prices (or depress other currencies).
3. Tax cuts boost the huge budget deficit now 6.6% of GDP.
On top of this, Trump nominates 4 incompetent madhatters to top government jobs, showing all that he is completely incompetent & unsuited to be president, just like the last time around.
Strangely, many take Biden's admirable normality as a given. It is not./3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Nov 10
The legacy of Angela Merkel is suitably dissipating.
1. The weeded out strong people, such as Friedrich Merz.
2. During 16 years she pursued no structural reforms.
3. During the euro crisis in 2010 she sat & did nothing for as long as possible, just bailing out the German banks.
4. She supported Putin's geopolitical Nord Stream 2 project, which was designed to attack Ukraine, while claiming that it was only commercial.
5. Merkel assisted Putin with the Minsk process, facilitating his full-scale attack in 2022.
6. Merkel refused to invite Ukraine to NATO in 2008 (together with Sarkozy) & set the German non-invitation policy.
7. Merkel refused to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support.
8. Merkel completely neglected Germany's defense.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Nov 3
Finally, Russian economic policy discussion has come alive. After Chair of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina raised the interest rate to 21% - inflation is 8.7% year over year, so the real interest rate is extremely high at 12%
Now, 3 top Russian oligarchs have come out protesting against this high interest rate. They are Oleg Deripaska (who is rather outspoken), Alexei Mordashov & Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec. They claim these rates will cause mass bankrutpcies & want to oust Nabiullina.
Sergei Chemezov is by far most important. He is the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine & the ouster of Defense Minister Shoigu. He probably controls 80% of Russia's armaments industry because he served with Putin in the KGB in Dresden - his sole merit.
Read 10 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Oct 19
Seldom has the US seemed more hypocritical than now:
1. Ukraine has been attacked & defends itself, but the US does not give it the arms it needs & tells it not to defend itself against Russia bases. Ukraine obeys to the letter.
2. Israel kills tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians with US weapons & does everything contrary to US desires. The US delivers more arms & blocks justified international protests against Israel's behavior.
3. The US forced Ukraine to give up its plentiful nukes in 1994 to Russia and "assured" Ukraine's security, but did nothing when Russia attacked in 2014 and 2022.
When Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990, the US sent 500,000 US soldiers & thousands of tanks because of oil...
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 24
I am no military expert, but I listen often to generals Breedlove & Hodges as well as Ian Brzezinski & Fred Kagan, which I wish the Biden administration would do as well.
1. The US compelled Ukraine to a hopeless counteroffensive in 2023...
The US demanded the offensive & told all what it was supposed to do, so the Russians built up their defenses. The US did not deliver any air support & a minimum of ATACMS. It made Ukraine bound to fail. Presumably the US sieve passed on all info to Russia.
2. The Biden administration has hold back the Ukrainians from attacking the Russian bases from which the Russians attack the whole of Ukraine, notably civilians. This is contrary to the UN Charter Article 51 on the right of self-defense. This is unacceptable.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(