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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Apr 16
Right now we are watching the moral & intellectual collapse of US foreign policy (not the first time).
1. The US (the Biden administration & all the more so the GOP) fails to stand up against Russian aggression against Ukraine without any real argument.
2. Clown @SpeakerJohnson has visited Trump & kissed his ring. He must not allow any funding to Ukraine. He intends to hinder it through complications not to seem guilty.
If Johnson allows any Ukraine funds, Trump's loyal Putinist executioner @RepMTG will oust him as speaker.
@SpeakerJohnson @RepMTG 3. Meanwhile, the hapless Biden administration focuses on admonishing the Ukrainians not to bomb Russian oil refineries in the flawed belief that it would boost global oil prices. What about the Israeli war? Is that irrelevant to the oil price? Try to get serious!
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Apr 15
When Russia started the war against Ukraine, we were a substantial group that called for the West imposing a no-fly zone as in Iraq. Now, the US, UK & France have proven that it was perfectly possible with regard to Israel. Why did they refuse to protect Ukraine?/1
If the West had imposed a no-fly zone over Ukraine (whole or parts), Russia would not have been as aggressive in its bombing as it has been now. Probably it would have done nothing. Putin respect power & nothing else. This was a fundamental & costly misjudgement./2
Numerous Ukrainians now comment: The West does not care about us. They only see us as a nuisance or collateral damage. The West, primarily the US, has let Ukraine down. Most would say betrayed. This will be costly. No Ukrainian will obey the US again./3
Read 9 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Apr 11
1. Absurdly, the US House of Representatives has ended up in a situation where one single member has a veto. Matt Gaetz ousted Kevin McCarthy single-handedly & Marjorie Taylor-Greene threatens to do the same with hapless Mike Johnson.
2. In Poland in the 18th Century this was called "liberum veto," one single member of the Sejm could veto any decision. The Sejm could make no decisions & especially Russia bought a few votes. The result was the demise of Poland through partitions in 1772, 1793 & 1795.
3. In the 18th Century Sweden was in a situation very similar to Poland's, but King Gustav III seized power from the parliamentary government in a coup d'état in 1772, restoring royal autocracy.
Sweden survived but ended up with terrible foreign policy under his son.
Read 9 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 30
I feel enormous frustration, seeing how the West is letting Ukraine down. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed & millions have been forced to flee & the West drip-feeds Ukraine with out-of-date arms, though a few hundred foreign volunteers have fallen in Ukraine.
1. To begin with the West (the US!) should encourage Ukraine to hit hard in the whole of Russia. How can Russia's terrorist bombing of the whole of Ukraine be tolerated?
2. All surplus arms in the whole West should be sent to Ukraine at no cost & not decommissioned.
3. The GOP had better prove that it is not a Putin party & vote through the $61 billion package of support for Ukraine.
4. When that has been done, the US should deliver all its best, most relevant arms to Ukraine, from ATACMS to F16s, to bomb the Russian bases bombing Ukraine.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 24
It is difficult to see the Crocus City Hall terrorist act as anything but instigated by the Kremlin & the FSB:
1. The 4 terrorist arrived in camouflage with kalashnikovs all in one car - no checks on the roads.
2. No security was present at Crocus.
3. The standard metal detectors were turned off.
4. The terrorists stayed 18 minutes in the Crocus City Hall & worked out calmly. No police or security arrived.
5. Police & FSB centers are located within short walking distance from the Hall, but they came only after one hour.
6. The alleged terrorists left in the same car as they arrived for Bryansk oblast & came close to Belarus. No serious burglar leaves in the same car. Were these other people?
7. How would it be possible to drive for 5 hours without being checked? That seems impossible.
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 22
From the outset, the Biden administration (read Jake Sullivan) has been dead frightened to "provoke" Putin, to escalate, to provoke World War III or a nuclear war.
1. In April 2021, Sullivan called back two US destroyers on their way to the Black Sea not to provoke Russia.
Thus, Russia ended freedom of navigation on the Black Sea & blockaded all Ukrainian ports from early 2022 before the war. This was a serious US mistake. the braver UK & Dutch naval ships entered the Black Sea in June 2021.
2. Only recently has @POTUS said that Ukraine must win & his aides forced him to walk back his statement in Warsaw in March 2022 that Putin had to go. The US has never called for Russia's defeat.
Read 8 tweets

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