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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Sep 17
How can we know that Trump supports Putin?
1. He says so, praising Putin for being a genius invading Ukraine.
2. He has not imposed any sanctions on Russia since January.
3. He is not enforcing the previous sanctions on Russia.
4. He votes with Putin & a dozen rogue states in UN.
5. Trump has stopped all US financial & military aid to Ukraine, although Ukraine enjoys broad popular support also in GOP.
6. Liar Trump claims absurdly that Zelensky started the war, while Putin did.
7. Trump has not imposed any conditions on Russia for ceasefire.
8. Instead, Trump has imposed conditions on Ukraine, the victim.
9. By ending the sanctions on Belarusian airline Belavia (for no good reason), Trump has facilitated US supplies of parts to Boeings standing in Russia.
10. Trump & Witkoff are itching to invest in Russia.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Sep 15
The always excellent annual Yalta European Strategy Conference took place in Kyiv September 12-13. Trump's envoy General Kellogg was there, so the Russians did not bomb Kyiv for 2 nights...
2 things stand out:
The US has left &
Ukraine produces its own arms but needs money. /1
Kellogg supports Ukraine, but he can's explain that Trump has stopped all financial & military aid to Ukraine. As all Trump appointees he says that he cannot speak for the president.
Kellogg claimed that NATO is stronger than ever.
No! Trump works for Putin & not for NATO. /2
The big positive news is that Ukraine has developed hundreds of startups in arms production, mainly drones. They produce new stereotypes in 2 weeks & can quickly scale up. Ukraine does not ask for more arms from the West but for money since they produce arms cheaper. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Sep 10
The first impression from three days of walking in Kyiv is as before that most things look quite normal. Lots of people & cars in the streets. The restaurants and cafés became more and better.
A lot of music in the streets. /1
Yet, large parts of the central city have been closed to all traffic, also pedestrians, for security reasons. Yet, this civilian ministry in Podil has only sandbags protecting its low windows. Image
In Mykhailivska Square stand rusting Soviet tanks as before. You see the Sophia Cathedral in the background. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Sep 7
Is there any republican left who does not understand that Trump supports Putin & not the West?
1. He praises Putin all the time & now even his servant Lukashenko.
2. Trump has imposed no sanctions on Russia or tariffs, but big tariffs on the EU & Ukraine. /1
3. Trump has not given Ukraine any arms or financial aid.
4. The US has twice voted in the UN with Russia & a dozen rogue states claiming mendaciously that Russia is NOT an aggressor against Ukraine.
5. Trump has ended all US media information against Russian disinformation. /2
6. Trump has stopped all US democracy support abroad.
7. Trump is withdrawing US support for Baltic security.
8. Trump does not even protest when Russia bombs US companies in Ukraine (Boeing & Flex).
9. Trump has eliminated all Russia knowledge in the US administration. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Sep 6
What suggests that Trump works for Putin & Xi & not for the US?
1. He has launched an extraordinary and erratic trade war against all but Russia;
2. eliminated U.S. foreign aid programs;
3. upended U.S. alliances;
4. degraded the US administration; /1
5. Stopped all aid to Ukraine;
6. Reduced military support in NATO directed against Russia;
7. stopped all US state media directed against dictatorships;
8. ended support for democracy. /2
9. detained and deported scores of foreign students and scholars;
10. strong-armed universities for their political views;
11. forced media companies into doing his bidding;
12. the same with law firms & all kinds of corporations;
13. emasculated US science. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 30
How will Russia's war in Ukraine end?
Both nations are very tired now, the Ukrainians more so, but Ukraine knows this is an existential war, it is not for Russia, only for Putin himself.
Ukraine spend 50% of GDP on the war, Russia only 7% & they complain. It tells you all. /1
After World War II, no imperial power has won a serious, prolonged imperial war. Russia won in Chechnya, which is not big, leading Putin to the wrong conclusion. Ukraine is too big & united to be defeated by a mindless colonial power, which Putin can't understand. /2
We are all caught in historical precedents.
Putin clearly thinks Chechnya, but it had 1.5 million inhabitants, while Ukraine had 40 million when the war started.
My precedent is Germany in 1918: Its revolution stopped a mindless war, while German troops stood abroad. /3
Read 4 tweets

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