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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Mar 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
4. Many observers think that Putin is so mad that he can use chemical, biological or nuclear arms. This makes it vital to stop him soon.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Nov 30
This week has offered many stark insights:
1. The US is by far the most corrupt Western country.
2. Trump's administration works for its own enrichment with Russia, sacrificing Ukraine (WSJ below).
3. The US must play no role on Ukraine-Russia issues. /1
wsj.com/world/russia/r…
4. Europe must offer Ukraine all the financing & arms it needs to defeat Russia.
5. Europe can only finance Ukraine sufficiently by seizing the Russian state assets in the West ($300bn), which Witkoff & Kushmer want to embezzle for themselves. /2
6. Trump has effectively taken away all US guarantees from NATO, so Europe has to arm asap to stand without the US.
7. Ukraine & Europe must stop asking for US security guarantees, because Trump does not do guarantees. /3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Nov 19
The essence of the Ukrainian corruption scandal is old Soviet-type kickbacks on procurement at a major state company, Energoatom.
This corruption scheme was allowed to persist because Energoatom remained state-owned; an old Soviet stooge maintained control &... /1
...enticed new people to join.
The kingpin was Andriy Derkach, who controlled Energoatom from around 2002 -2022 from the parliament, government or management. He graduated from the FSB Academy in Moscow in 1993. His father Leonid was a top KGB officer & headed SBU. /2
Andriy Derkach was a Yanukovych loyalist & MP from 1998-2023. He worked with Paul Manafort & Rudy Giuliani to undermine Joe Biden.
In 2020, the US sanctioned Derkach as a Russian intelligence agent.
In Jan 2023, the Ukrainian Rada stripped Derkach of his Ukrainian citizenship./3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Oct 26
How Trump has aggravated Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine:
1. Trump stopped all financial & military assistance to Ukraine in January 2025.
2. He posed no conditions or sanctions on Russia until mid-October, effectively encouraging Putin's aggression. /1
3. While praising Putin no end, Trump ambushed Zelensky in the White House on February 28 & October 17, showing that he supported Putin.
4. Trump supported Viktor Orban, who supports Putin & Xi, trying to split the EU as much as possible. /2
5. Trump sacked the best US intelligence analysts on Russia & Ukraine relying on his own daydreams instead.
6. Trump failed to come up with any sensible peace proposal & thus failed.
7. Trump even blamed the war on Zelensky & Biden rather than Putin. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Oct 21
A few comments on Trump's dealings with Ukraine:
1. He turned against Zelensky when Zelenky refused to falsify evidence against the Bidens.
2. At that time, Trump & Giuliani worked with men such as Andriy Derkach that US intelligence verified as belonging to Russia intelligence.
3. After Putin had launched his full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Trump called Putin a "genius." In no way did he defend Ukraine or protest against Putin's aggression.
4. Trump's connections with Russian intelligence are old & verified.
amazon.com/House-Trump-Pu…
5. Trump lies all the time. Remember that the Washington Post established 30,000 lies during his first 4 years as president. (Cowardly Bezos has ended this documentation.)
6. On no basis, liar & boaster Trump claimed that he would stop the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours.
Read 12 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Oct 17
This is ridiculous:
1. Trump has supported Putin & his war of aggression against Ukraine all along, stopping all aid to Ukraine. Even if he lies all the time, believe his actions.
2. Ukraine has asked for Tomahawks (which Trump would never give against his friend Putin). /1
3. Trump has dragged poor Zelensky to Washington once again to abuse him in support of Putin's terror of Ukraine.
4. Why does Trump do this? Most republicans support Ukraine & democracy rather than Putin, aggression & dictatorship. Trump must play a tragicomedy. /2
5. Trump & Vance are likely to abuse Zelensky, Ukraine, democracy & the West once again tomorrow, but they might abstain for the next round.
6. In Budapest, Trump will promote the most anti-democratic leader in the EU & oppose the EU & its support of Ukraine. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Sep 21
Let us stop for a moment & consider how Trump damages the US:
1. He isolates the US economically & politically.
2. He has already ended the rule of law,
3. as well as the freedom of the media.
4. He has devastated US science &
5. tries to further undermine bad US health. /1
6. He has effectively ended NATO & all other Western alliances because he is completely unreliable.
7. He has abandoned truth altogether.
8. He has stopped all anti-corruption rules & thrived on his personal enrichment.
9. He interferes in the economy as the worst dictator. /2
10. His lawlessness has made it nearly impossible to invest in the US.
11. His anti-immigration policies have made it dangerous for any talented foreigners - students, researchers or businessmen - to come to the US.
12. Trump's loose fiscal policy is long-term unsustainable. /3
Read 4 tweets

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