Thread by @Geo_papic

So my tweet yesterday caused a third of you to lose your mind… and start throwing topographic maps of Ukraine in my face... Allow me to elaborate on why the Russian “special operation” is a haphazard military operation at best, and a ballet performance at the Bolshoi at worst.

https://twitter.com/Geo_papic/status/1502366925237538822

Here is a map of the infamous Schlieffen Plan. One main thrust into Northern France by the German Empire along four axes. Note the lack of spearheads anywhere else on French territory. No thrust into Alsace, for example.

Here is an (overly simplified) map of Operation Barbarossa. Three main thrusts along a front much wider than what Russians are dealing with in Ukraine. Can someone please send me a topographic map? #sarcasm

Someone mentioned Vietnam yesterday. Well here is a map of the Tet Offensive. Looks pretty straightforward to me! One main supply route with multiple off ramps for attacks.

Napoleon invasion of Russia? You guessed it! Pretty straightforward… single thrust to Moscow. (His retreat was pretty straightforward to!)

The Allied invasion of Sicily? For sure there were amphibious landings across the entire island, right? Wrong. Just essentially two major locations in the South.

The Fall of France in 1940? Germans must have updated the Schlieffen Plan and made it more complicated? Right? Wrong again. Just straight shot to Paris. Didn't even bother about anything else.

Let’s go back in time and see if there is a different lesson there. Hannibal’s route into Rome? Pretty straight forward! Oh but invading flat-as-a-pancake Ukraine is more complicated in 2022 than CROSSING THE FREAKING ALPS IN THIRD CENTURY BC??

So.. the map below is not of an invasion. It’s performance art. Russia thought they could showcase their military prowess with an artistic rendition of a military operation.

Throughout military history, the lesson learned time and again is that you don’t salami slice your forces 8-10 ways. You create a spearhead and go for the JUGULAR.

You think the Russian military doesn't regret NOT focusing the attack on Kiev and Kharkiv? Instead, they ignored common wisdom by slicing ~160,000 troops 12-14 ways. Why? So they could film some cool amphibious landings in Mariupol and show it on Первый канал?

Speaking of the amphibious assault on Mariupol… am I the only one who thinks this landing looks eerily similar to DeAndre Jordan's role on the Lakers? WHY ARE YOU AMPHIBIOUSLY LANDING IN A CITY YOU HAVE SURROUNDED?! WHY ARE YOU SIGNING AN AGING CENTER WHEN NOBODY PLAYS BIGS!?

So no. Ukraine’s topography does not explain why Russia decided to throw away the playbook and attack from 74 (#estimate) different directions.

Russia's overestimation of their capabilities does. They have dulled their “tip of the spear” and will (and are) suffering losses as a result. Anyone who has ever played a game of RISK would know better.

Shout out to SNL for getting it… and for dragging my Lakers in the process. #notbitteratall

Why does any of this matter for the markets? I am not sure but I feel like the war outcomes are now very binary. Either Moscow proclaims victory really fast, or this drags out forever. No in between.

Hit me with the topographic maps at your own peril...