Thread by @djrothkopf

Putin likely knows he cannot win in Ukraine in the sense that he cannot take control of the country and maintain that control. He cannot make Ukraine a vassal state like Belarus. So, it seems likely that for him, the next best option is to destroy Ukraine with maximum brutality.

In so doing, he will be able to say he neutralized Ukraine's threat to Russia. He will send a warning to neighbors that this is what awaits them if he sees them as a threat. And perhaps most importantly, he will send a message to the world that he can act w/complete impunity.

What awaits Ukraine is almost certainly worse than anything we have seen to date. Re: the last point above, Putin will cross red lines to prove that he can do so. He likely believes that communicates a message of power to his people and to the world.

He also likely knows that he cannot sustain this war indefinitely, that the economic costs of war (or occupation) are high and as sanctions bite deeper they will be an ever greater challenge. That is why obliterating Ukraine is for him, preferable than trying to hold it.

He is counting on two things. One is that the West will not challenge him militarily for fear of triggering WWIII. The other is that once this is over a negotiated peace will result in lifted sanctions and a return (perhaps a slow one) to normalcy.

He is probably right on the first point. This is not the place to relitigate that argument although I'm not sure that history suggests that inaction is actually the cautious path w/a man like Putin. (What does this mean? Perhaps stepping up our own "hybrid" response.

Perhaps we need more of our own "little green men." Perhaps if red lines are crossed significant cyber responses should be considered. Perhaps this means other forms of expanded covert support.) But this will no doubt be controversial and frankly, given the stakes, it should be.

But the second point above is more important. It must be made clear to Putin that he cannot lay waste to an innocent nation and then be welcomed back into the community of nations by a world eager for peace, stability and Russian oil & gas.

Here, the West does have great options. Sanctions could be more sweeping now. European nations that have dragged their feet on energy sanctions can and should implement them. More of Putin's allies should be targeted with sanctions. Nations that aid Russia should feel the pain.

Russia should be kicked out of international institutions if it not only rejects the rule of law but flaunts the minimal levels of decency civilization requires. And the message must be that these penalties will not stop the day a cease fire goes into effect.

They must continue not only until Russia is out of all of Ukraine--including what was taken illegally in 2014--but until Russia has paid in full for its crimes. That means paying to rebuild Ukraine. That means taking whatever steps ensure this does not happen again.

Frankly, and I'm not sure even many Ukrainians agree with me on this, I think that means accepting Ukraine as part of the EU and perhaps also NATO. Because if there is one lesson of this conflict so far, it is that NATO's deterrent power works starting at its borders.

The ICC should also do its work and, if it does it properly, Russians including Putin should be held to account for the war crimes they committed. But what cannot, must not, happen is to recommit the errors that followed the Russia's actions in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia & Crimea.

That is to say we can't resend the message to the Kremlin that they will be forgiven quickly or easily. Indeed, I can see no reasonable path for Russia back into the community of nations so long as Putin remains in charge. He, no doubt, has other ideas.

History suggests he is right. But if he is willing to wage total war against 45 million Ukrainian innocents then in addition to providing them with every form of military, political and economic support we can short of actually triggering WWIII, we must wage total economic...

...and diplomatic war in response. Our goal must not be just to make them stop but to ensure that they do not start again. That will require will and leadership, real resolve and strategic clarity. In many ways it is harder than simply launching a military response.

But it is not only what justice requires, it is what the collective strategic interests of the free world demand. Without it, the idea of real European security is dead and global stability and order will forever be at risk.