Thread by @PatPorter76

A terrific thread, but I'm troubled by one issue that's going to get more intense: whether Biden should rule out or leave ambiguous whether US would under any circumstances fight *in* Ukraine. 1/

https://twitter.com/olga_chyzh/status/1502785540428644359

2/First, agree Biden administration should be less frequent in announcements about what it won't do. Because that communicates a general reluctance to be involved or suffer retaliations at all. The emphasis should be on action taken, keeping Putin in the public spotlight.

3/Beyond that, should they engage in an elaborate bluff, when their position is not to engage directly with NFZ's, etc? Leaving open possibility of direct intervention, & therefore dramatically raising risks of major war, while conspicuously refraining, isn't much more credible.

4/Russia will still believe, rightly, that in Ukraine, it has v US an imbalance of interests & therefore resolve in its favour. Were the US to "up" brinksmanship w/threats, signals, etc, assumption that Russia would sense US resolve & back off may be mistaken. Maybe the reverse.

5/While rhetorically leaving open the possibility of intervention would ramp up domestic demand, certainly in political & security circles, for further intervention, and heighten the charge of weakness when Biden doesn't follow through.

6/There's no clear, easy solution here. One way of threading the needle and "crisis bargaining" with more plausible ambiguity might be credibly to threaten Russian targets outside Ukraine & Russia - @dmarusic's list is a good start.

7/It comes down to a disagreement about what creates "resolve" that can have a coercive/deterrent effect. I'm skeptical overall that leaving open prospect of action that is non-credible doesn't do much to make it more credible, esp. where imbalance of stakes in the conflict.

8/Equally, Washington's first duty is to secure its citizens and, beyond that, protects allies, and taking care to avoid action that inadvertently takes Russia to the brink is a fundamental and legitimate part of that.