How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App
https://twitter.com/BeaFihn/status/17087786928626814222/We know there was a dangerous security competition between two superpowers. This involved crises. Such contests & crises historically have led to major wars before (ie wars between leading states, on a large scale: Peloponnesian, French Revolutionary/Napoleonic, world wars).
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/16287841064555642882/Sometimes, nations willingly fight wars to protect sovereignty & liberty, at high price. The west is not forcing Ukraine to put up resistance. It is aiding a willing people. Fwiw, I think our interests overlap, though they also may diverge:politico.eu/article/ukrain…
https://twitter.com/DanDePetris/status/16172865209640058892/The notion that arming Ukr = preventing war over Taiwan is seductive. It promises zero material trade-offs between theatres (hence "walk & chew gum" frivolity). It promises an easily dissuaded adversary in Asia, even while it signals its intent over Taiwan ever more brazenly.
https://twitter.com/DrJadeMcGlynn/status/15978967529456926732/I'm pessimistic about brokering any kind of agreement soon, other than a duplicitous one that is used, as you say, for Russia to rearm. Aside from other reasons, neither Ukraine nor Russia is interested, and even if Ukraine were, its public opinion is strongly opposed.
https://twitter.com/Lib_Civ/status/1579908821744766976The surrender at Munich robbed Hitler of his immediate pretext to attack Czechoslovakia as a whole in September 1938. Hitler always regretted not getting war a year earlier. Ironically, opponents of the Munich sellout support giving Hitler one thing he wanted.
https://twitter.com/adesnik/status/1577348447400869892There is some risk of further use - but in both scenarios. On balance, further use -in Ukraine and perhaps beyond- more likely if the west goes to war v Russia. Further use more likely to look threatening, not just abhorrent, to non-allies too.
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1577382626322796545Moreover, the reductio doesn't follow. It doesn't require US or others to give in to blackmail in all other circumstances. If Russia considers in future eg a land grab against a Nato country, there are things we can do, forces to deploy, to signal they will have hell to pay. 2/
https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1577215307449438208I'll help with one. Barry Posen argued that both sides should make concessions around neutrality to prevent war, & did expect Russia to be too strong, but has recommended a compromise settlement, not simply "let it win." He now writes of lessons to be drawn in defensive warfare.
https://twitter.com/EdmundLevin/status/1576954265155014657The precedent created by an actual direct military intervention that leads to catastrophe might be very different: if US & Nato were nuked, its appetite for further interventions to enforce rules & order would be reduced. Potentially more encouraging to other aggressors.
https://twitter.com/KSchultz3580/status/1536908094097068032For instance, there is a recent line of argument from @spectermatt, buttressed by @adam_tooze, that traces realism's roots to a dark, German-American geopolitics of the 19th and 20th centuries.
https://twitter.com/KSchultz3580/status/1536908094097068032@MMazarr's distinction between a general pessimist intellectual tradition & a soc-sci theory is a start, but as @WCWohlforth argues, there are a range of decent efforts to forge a predictive theory while accounting for anomalies. Eg the debate about the nuclear revolution.
https://twitter.com/RupertStone83/status/15265023763870023682/ In October '02, after all, North Korea, also designated rogue partner in Axis of Evil, revealed its own more advanced nuclear programme. The US responded with sanctions & multilateral talks. And more intrusive inspections up to Feb '03 were turning up very little.