1/
a bit of aviation guesswork: consider the Tu-141 reconnaissance drone that crashed in Croatia. reportedly *exploded* with force of a 120kg bomb, tho the crater is small and believable for a fast (~700kn) falling ~6t vehicle. luckily nobody hurt.
2/
i have speculated whether it was perhaps a scuttling charge (to destroy any recordings & devices) or maybe even fuel fumes.

"War is Boring" with an even more interesting tidbit: it's got *retro rockets* to facilitate soft landing, besides the chute.
3/
a brief ~1 second firing retro-rocket would sound pretty close to an explosion.

alternatively, a malfunctioning one going off during the crash could conceivable explode (deflagration) like a rather potent explosive charge.

drops of IFVs with retros:

4/
enjoy the *energetic* launch of a Tu-141

5/
appreciate the predecessor Tu-123 with excellent lines to it. "The Forever War" artwork comes to mind somehow.

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More from @DoppelMark

Mar 15
1/
>What abuses are unique to communism & not just a byproduct of govts in general?

excellent question, let's try shaking my memory a bit.

2/
"collectivization" as nation-scale stealing of most of land from farmers and giving it to collectives (kolkhozes) and the government (sovkhoz). this detached people from their roots and destroyed productivity, with all the attendant hungers, poverty and misery. Image
3/
related: "dekulakization" as process of killing or jailing the farmers that were previously well off. this also destroyed productivity and detached communities from the knowledgeable and respected members. Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 15
1/
i read with interest the new article; @ThePrudentialist responding to Fukuyama's 12 points in methodological and biting form 👍
2/
several excellent points, in particular touching the somewhat counter-intuitive tension between populism and Russian invasion. Image
3/
my only big gripe with the article: no, China is not self-aware as to its readiness & capability level.

in the same way the authoritarian Russia was not self-aware about the internal weakness & corruption in its military - the information filters at every level of bureaucracy ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Mar 6
1/
interesting thread.
note that the supposed leak from FSB analyst can't really be confirmed, and might be subtle propaganda just as well.

"we are soooo weak" has been used by Russia historically in strategic ways.
2/
i concur with the commentary; there will be price shocks but nowhere near dramatic famines.

btw, cue all those crying "why are we wasting so much food every year".

3/
remember Suvorov's "Icebreaker"?
people critique it with "show us the documents in archives??"
well lookie here:

Read 19 tweets
Mar 6
i've checked out @emeriticus's tweets and i am disappointed.
2/
two particularly bad tweets stand out:
"but what about america?" and "it's time to eat the rich".
3/
bonus bad content:
>untrained
nope, most ukrainian men go through full military training in the course of their mandatory conscription; those got rifles.

>making stuff up
russians fired on nuclear power plant that's larger than Chernobyl. the risks, if small, were there.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
1/
interesting reading on the invasion. in particular how political and military angles are at crossroads.

let's take some notes.

samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan…
2/
socialists, always the same excuse
3/
Ukraine is no stranger to counter-attacking. they've historically been informed by Soviet mil doctrine, also got the legs & intel to pull it off.

throwing all units in as the first-and-only-wave would've courted humiliating & stingy breaches of Russian's own territory.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 3
1/
Coach Red Pill purged his spicy content from his channel several weeks ago.

now he's casting himself as "i'm moderate voice of reason" and "i'm just reporting from here" and subverting his host country. ImageImage
2/
previously on Coach Red Pill: "leave [the west] now while you still can". ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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