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Only once in the last 36 years have all four #1 seeds reached the Final Four (2008). In fact, only four tournaments witnessed three #1 seeds advance to the Final Four. That means 29 of 35 Final Fours featured two or fewer #1 seeds

Dating back to 2014, #1 seeds have won 18 of their last 19 games in the Sweet 16. They don’t all get there but, when they do, they’ve been nearly perfect in five straight tournaments. The lone team to lose in that stretch was UNC (2019), which fell to a red-hot Auburn team.

#1 Seeds Are Only So-So in the Elite 8 Recently

Only 14 #1 seeds, in total, have made the Final Four since 2012, and #1 seeds are a combined 14-10 in the Elite 8 in that span.

At Least One #1 Seed Will Reach the Final Four

Crossing off all the #1 seeds in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 would be almost as unwise as moving them all through to the final weekend. Only two Final Fours (2006, 2011) have featured zero #1 seeds.

As detailed in First-Round Trends You Need to Know, #12 seeds outperform expectations in the first two rounds. That comes to an abrupt halt in the Sweet 16, where #12 seeds are 2-20 overall and 0-20 when they face a #1 seed.

#7-#11 Seeds are Live Dogs

The Cinderella story for one team in the #7 to #11 range is likely to continue past the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Going back to 2011, at least one team in that range has reached the Final Four every year, save 2012 and 2019.

#2 Seeds Dominate #3 Seeds in the Sweet 16

When the chalk holds, the Sweet 16 matchups pit #2s versus #3s in what ought to be competitive games. Yet the #2s have owned the head-to-head, going 29-17 all-time.

#2 seeds Are 50/50 versus #1 Seeds in the Elite 8

The #2 seeds keep up their strong showing in the Elite 8, as well, holding a 24-24 all-time record against #1 seeds. Over the last ten meetings (dating back to 2010), #2 seeds hold a 7-4 edge.

No #6 Seed Has Reached the Final Four since 1992

Even though several #7 and #8 seeds have made the third weekend since 1992 (three and four, respectively), the ’92 Michigan Wolverines were the last #6 seed to do so.

Only One #9 Seed Has Reached the Final Four

Led by an NBA-caliber backcourt of Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the 2013 Wichita State Shockers are the only #9 seed to make the last quartet since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams.

Duke (12) and North Carolina (11) have reached the most Final Fours since 1985. Going back to the tournament’s inception in 1939, UCLA is second in Final Four appearances with 19, but only five of those have come since the field was expanded in ’85

drive.google.com/file/d/18nro6E…

drive.google.com/file/d/109dqty…

The #1 seeds win at least two games 86% of the time

After feasting on lowly #16 seeds, the top dogs still have room for dessert: #1 seeds are 120-19 (86.3% win-rate) in the second round since 1985. That’s significantly better than #2 seeds, which are just 89-43 (67.4% win-rate).

The #1 seeds cover the spread if it’s less than 20 points

After the 2018 tournament, #1 seeds are 8-2 in their last 10 games against #16 seeds when the point spread is less than 20.

The #7 seeds crush the #10 seeds

A lot of amateur bracketologists assume that the #7-vs-#10 matchups are basically toss-ups, and that’s not the least bit true. The #7 seeds have won at a 60.7% clip and are 85-55 all-time.

The history of #10 seeds in the first round isn’t great. Yet, when they do survive the Round of 64, they’re batting 42.9% in the Round of 32, going 24-32 all-time. If there’s a #10 seed you love in the first round, take a hard look at their matchup in the second round

Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams and implemented the “First Four” (2011), one of the teams to advance from that preliminary section of the bracket won a Round of 64, as well, until 2019. Both Belmont and Arizona State were eliminated in the Round of 64.

The #8 vs #9 games are true coin-flips (70-66 since 1985). That makes the discrepancy in their second-round success really strange: #8 seeds are 13-55 (19.1% win-rate), while #9 seeds are an atrocious 7-65 (9.7% win-rate).

Again, #8 and #9 seeds are almost in a dead-heat over the last 33 years, and the parity has translated to the betting realm. Taking the points has been the wise move 59.1% of the time over the last 11 tournaments.

Going back to the 2011 tournament, #11 seeds are .500 against #6 seeds in the first round, going 20-20 in that span. In the 2017 tournament, Xavier, USC, and Rhode Island all won as #11 seeds, and Xavier advanced all the way to the Elite Eight.

When you get to #13 seeds, though, David runs out of rocks and Goliath pulverizes the word parity between his heartless hands. What I’m trying to say is that #13 seeds are a dismal 29-111 (20.7% win-rate) in the Round of 64.

drive.google.com/file/d/1OHBtO2…

During the last 12 seasons, 10 of the championship winning teams were ranked in the top three of these rankings.

ESPN Power Index For The 2022 Season
Gonzaga
Houston
Kentucky

Potato Kmish

USF -1
San Diego St -1.5

BRAD POWERS

New Mexico St
San Diego State
Iowa State
Chattanooga
Belmont
Iona
Michigan
Colgate

PAUL STONE

Arkansas
Murray State
Rutgers
Texas A&M CC
South Dakota St
Virginia Tech
Loyola Chicago
TCU

Youngstown Connection

#742 Providence -2 1240PM Eastern
#738 San Diego St -2 725PM Eastern
#731 San Francisco +1.5 940PM Eastern

Joe Gavazzi

6% Providence -2
6% Arkansas -5