Thread by @DefenseNigeria

I'll ignore the attacks with my take on this war.

We all believed that Russia will have a much easier time overwhelming the Ukranians. The Ukranians are proving to be resilient, due to weapons pouring into Ukraine from NATO members.

The crippling sanctions and the doggedness of Ukranian puts Putin in a difficult situation. The longer the war drags on, the costlier it becomes for a Russia that is gradually running out of resources and is increasingly isolated.

When you have a Russian minister warning NATO shipment of arms pouring into Ukraine will be seen as legitimate targets, and within 24 hours Russia attacks a military base being used to funnel weapons to Ukraine, 12km from the Polish border.

..you know the Russians are feeling the pinch. It is an effort to prevent Ukraine from being reinforced from the outside. The reason Ukraine is holding out is because of the volume of weapons pouring in from the West. Poland by the way happens to be a NATO member. Now

In addendum for the sake of trigger happy critics:

Ukraine is not winning the War. Russian manpower and weaponry will eventually prevail in the end. We all know that. The story here is about the cost of victory. A swift and decisive victory is what Russia wants.

Putin has no interest in fighting a long drawn out war of attrition. The longer the war rages, the costlier it becomes for Putin. A long drawn out war favours both Ukraine and NATO. Fighting a protracted war of attrition is a very expensive endeavour even at the best of times.

Doing so under crippling international sanctions will be prohibitively costly. Yes Ukranian cities are being bombarded. It still does not take away from the fact that Putin is getting desperate. Attacking a base 12km from a NATO member state is an act of desperation.

It's not western propaganda but a statement of fact. Those attacking people who espouse contrary opinions are blind to how precarious the situation is. Russian forces were not in Ukraine to carpet bomb cities.

The fact two weeks into the war Ukrainian cities are now being bombarded is a clear sign of desperation. Attacking a military base 12km from a NATO member is an act of desperation. Desperation not because Russia is losing, but because the war is gradually becoming

..A long drawn out bitter war of attrition. Sanctions against Russia are taking their toll, making it difficult for Putin to finance the war, meanwhile shipment of weapons from the west to Ukraine continue unabated, and they have the resources to keep this going indefinitely.

The risk of this escalating into direct military confrontation with NATO is real. Russia has adjusted its nuclear posture. As Russia becomes more isolated, as it continue to suffer from the economic repercussions of the war, and shipment of weapons from NATO

to Ukraine continue, we will be dealing with a man whose ego has been bruised. As this grinds on his desperation will be amplified, leading to poor judgemet. The temptation to cross the red line will be greater than ever.

Russia may seek to intimidate NATO to stop its military aid to Ukraine by attacking Poland, gambling on the fact NATO will not be too keen to go to war with a nuclear power over Poland.

NATO on the other hand believe it's restraint have done nothing but embolden Putin.

The credibility of NATO, the most powerful military in human history is at stake. NATO invokes Article-5 of the NATO Charter: An armed Attack Against One is An Attack Against All. Requiring the U.S, as the key member of NATO’s to wage a direct military war with Russia.

By this time it's too late for either parties to back down. We are looking at nuclear war with over 12,000 nuclear warheads between Russia and the U.S. This is the trajectory the war in Ukraine is heading.
The most disrespectful thing you can do is to tell me

to focus on Boko Haram because of an opinion piece you do not agree with. The information I dish out is taken for granted, like it's a given. If you cannot respect my personal take on this without resorting to insults then please by all means hit the unfollow button.