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Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
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Mar 15 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
YouTube star and one of Uzbekistan’s 🇺🇿most popular preachers, Abror Muxtor Aliy, says that if Putin loses in Ukraine he will attack Central Asia next.
🇰🇬 🇰🇿 🇹🇲 🇹🇯
Why would Putin attack Central Asia?
This perspective mirrors divides you see on Uzbekistan’s social media. Intellectual class on telegram posting careful anti-Putin messages. But others seeing this as a war of values and Putin defends these values.
.@Navbahor has written about this (read the second half of this piece) voanews.com/a/central-asia…
Analysis by @JahongirOston discusses scapegoating of LGBT community as the flashpoint of this war on values. Central Asia is very divided on these issues. facebook.com/10001190281911…
In this piece, I wrote about Putin’s popularity in Central Asia. Not sure how much that is shifting as so much of the region remains blanketed in Russian media and Central Asian media remains tepid. washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
Perhaps devastating effect of economic sanctions will cause a shift of popular opinion, but this could also cause people to blame the US and Europe. Much depends on how Central Asian governments approach these issues and communicate to their publics.
And this is the most common explanation for why we see these messages.

But on the other hand, some close to government sharing different messages. My sense is a real split.
It is amazing how views on this have changed so quickly.

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More from @jmurtazashvili

Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
Mar 17
🚨Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 foreign minister calls for:

Immediate cessation of violence in Ukraine

Asks Russia 🇷🇺 and Ukraine 🇺🇦 to come to a peaceful resolution

Refuses to acknowledge independence of Luhansk and Donetsk

Recognizes Ukraine’s territorial integrity gazeta.uz/ru/2022/03/17/…
Foreign Minister Kamilov reaffirms to his parliament that Uzbekistan does not get involved in foreign military blocs or war efforts. gazeta.uz/ru/2021/01/19/…
Ukraine’s ambassador to Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 confirms that Tashkent has quietly sent 28 tons of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine 🇺🇦 gazeta.uz/ru/2022/03/11/…
Read 10 tweets
Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
Dec 3, 2021
Fantastic reporting by @Tmgneff and Yaqoob Akbary on land conflicts and forced displacement in Afghanistan.

@IMurtazashvili and I focus on precisely this issue in our new book: Land, the State, and War: Property Institutions and Political Order in Afg.

nytimes.com/2021/12/03/wor…
This article shows deep history of these disputes. Soviet-backed regime of the 1970s sought to redistribute land in a violent manner.

We trace the roots of conflicts to the reign of 19th century ruler Abdul Rahman Khan who ruthlessly confiscated lands, esp. from minorities.
During the past twenty years, the only solution donors came up with was legal titling.

In a survey, I found that 80% of rural Afghans have customary deeds. Makes no sense to give up your customary deed to take a legal title from a state you do not trust. State had no trust.
Read 4 tweets
Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
Dec 3, 2021
Bittersweet to announce this new @CGMPitt initiative: The #AfghanistanProject.

This project fosters the development of the vibrant intellectual communities that have thrived in Afghanistan over the past two decades.

🧵Much to share about this program. Been a huge team effort.
This initiative began with the arrival of Professor @OmarSadr to Pittsburgh. He is the inaugural senior scholar of this project.

Read more about his pathbreaking work on cultural diversity, pluralism, and political reform.

cgm.pitt.edu/people/sadr
You can read about @OmarSadr's incredible journey to Pittsburgh and @PittTweet.

We are so grateful for his leadership and for sharing his story with us.
pitt.edu/pittwire/featu…
Read 13 tweets
Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
Aug 15, 2021
This is exactly why the US mission could not succeed. It did not have good partner.

Ghani was enabled by so many in Washington who fawned over his Ivy league decree and his bad book on failed states.

He ran the state into the ground and discredited the democratic project.
His patrons in Washington were in denial or deeply ignorant about the divisive way he governed.

Everyone was happy to keep pretending. Lots of mutual benefit. Afghan people paid the price.

His think tank, Institute for State Effectiveness receives contracts from donors.
While the US terribly bungled its withdrawal, the intervention could not continue.

The longer the war went on, the worse the outcomes were for the Afghan people. Violence wracked the countryside. Districts kept falling.

They had no faith in Kabul.
Read 6 tweets
Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
Aug 15, 2021
Much attention on the hasty US withdrawal, but this is a collapse of political institutions. The state lost its remaining legitimacy. This had been eroding for years. US aid fed the state but undermined its connection to people. Domestic politics is the primary driver.
Taliban gained momentum by pointing out the grotesque corruption and rentier nature of the Afghan state. They could draw a contrast. They called the Aghan government puppets.
Taliban public statements show they have a clear understanding of grievances. They understand what was wrong with the Ghani government. Their public statements try to assure people of their security and dignity. They speak in terms of accommodation.
Read 6 tweets
Jen Brick Murtazashvili Profile picture
Aug 15, 2021
Afghanistan and its people came a long way. Such relentless creativity. Have never seen anything like it. The government couldn't keep up with its diverse citizens and their demands to be treated with dignity and respect. So a deep cynicism about public institutions congealed.
Yet donor countries poured salt on wounds by celebrating corrupt elections. Saying these exercises were good for the Afghans. It was all so patronizing and demoralizing. The donors kept pouring money into these charades. Everyone pretended until they stopped.
Have no doubt that relentless creativity and spirit will persist. It is far too early to say what will come out on the other side of this. But I remain hopeful, as do many Afghans.
Read 4 tweets

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