Thread by @WeTheBrandon

There/s a pernicious theory both in International Relations and at the heart of the neoliberal element who run the foreign policy of the USA that having a @POTUS who is predictable is somehow preferable to unpredictability. That stability comes from predictability in our POTUS 1/

@POTUS 2/ That hallowed deterrence and the stability in the relationship between two (or more) nuclear powers--the so-called "balance of terror"--is key to avoided nuke war and other unwanted acts of destabilizing aggression. These people couldn't be more wrong!

3/ Today, stability through "balance" and "predictability" is DEAD. Not only has the USA policies of the last 30 years killed that notion (too imperialistic/aggressive for its own good militating other actors against the hegemon), BUT drawing "RED LINES" EMBOLDENS the tyrants.

4/ The tyrants of today are not interested in peace & stability through predictability of their fellow world leaders (notably in the democratic realm). The Putins, Xis, Raisis, Kims, Maduros, et al., use the crafting of "RED LINES"; or telegraphing our actions as WEAKNESS from us

5/ Plus, we are no longer living in the post-Cold War/postmodern Hegelian Age of history arcing toward justice or whatever; of technocratic tweaks to the "world system" being the solution to our woes. Quite the contrary. Instead, we're living in the Age of Enduring Disorder...

6/...When the bloody passions of ethnicity, tribe, nation, religion, and culture--the predilections of premodern Man--clash with the logic (or illogic) of Civilization-Empire. Gone is the Period of Fukuyama's post-historical society replaced by Huntington's Clash of Civilizations

7/ In this new-old age, the passions and lusts of the Great (not necessarily moral or good) Men of History replace the technocracy of the Hegelians. Thus, what we assume to be the illogic of believing #Putin would be nutty enough to launch nukes or Space Pearl Harbor is precisely

8/ Why #Putin would launch those strikes: because he is an irrational actor living in an irrational time seeking a totally unattainable goal: complete restoration of the Russian Empire at a time when the Russkies are in terminal population collapse. But try he will...

9/Because that's what passionate, "Great" Men do. They give history a kick in the backside; the force of their will and personality, so they think & feel, will move history in their direction. All of the old machinations/calculations are gone. Today, we live in a new bloody age.

10/Whatever happens in the next 8 years, one thing is certain: leadership will count for more than it has since the heady days of the Cold War. We are NOT entering a new "Roaring Twenties" either .We are entering a global war of all against all for everything. No one wins.

11/AND so, when dealing with these bloody minded, passionate, premodern tyrants trapped in modern society, a US POTUS CANNOT be predictable. HE must be completely unpredictable. And while the softies who compose US society today cringed at Mean Tweets, the Putins of the world

12/ looked at that as the Mean, Old Orange Man in the White House was quite insane and they did not want to mess around with that particular buckaroo. Trump was outmaneuvering the tyrants at every turn with his unpredictability which, paradoxically, kept the peace.

13/ But those days are gone. Unlikely to return before total catastrophe befalls us. Like the Ottomans in the twilight of their once-great empire, the American elite has become far too insulated away from the people they purport to rule. Their theories & disposition are as

14/ foreign to the ordinary American voter as the opulent Turkish Sultans were to the ordinary citizens of the Mideast during the reign of the Ottoman Empire. That elite isolation/insulation ultimately destroyed the Ottoman Empire from within b/c the elite couldn't

15/ adapt to the dynamic, changing environment around them. This is evolution 101: adapt or die. A society that is truly open and meritocratic can usually embrace new ideas and adapt to changing, dynamic conditions faster. A society ruled by a closed off patrician elite dies.

16/ Do you think for one second that Putin, et al. care that Biden isn't mean tweeting at 4 am? Do you think they are afraid that the crazed Cheeto Messiah might opt to blow up 400 Russkie mercenaries in Syria just b/c he can (as Trump did in 2018)?

19/ Or how about all the caterwauling about Trump's meanness toward the allies? Allies who, mind you, resent US power (notably in Europe) & consistently, actively undercut the alliance w/ America on their end? By being mean & brusque, Trump got Europe to spend $50 bn more per yr

20/ on NATO...which is now coming to help us against Putin. How much worse off would we have been had Trump not mean tweeted and mocked European leaders during his time in office? Our society is chock full of quislings so, of course, most don't understand what I'm saying.

21/ Trump was certainly a vulgarian, as everyone from Rachel Maddow to Ann Coulter argued. But his UNPREDICTABILITY, while problematic for domestic politics, was HUGELY beneficial for foreign policy. Today, we've got the wrong leaders in the wrong place at the wrong time.

22/ And for all of those pining for a replica of WW2 today...understand that our present predicament is MUCH MORE akin to WW1. And that's a really shitty situation b/c NO ONE won that conflict. Everyone just destroyed themselves on some level. God help us all.

23/ So, what is stability to us? It's gone! The unipolar American order at the end of the Cold War created the greatest imbalance of them all: a world in which Washington's preferences dominated. At first, this was accepted by all...until 9/11 sparked the Iraq War.

24/ How can you even have stability when the whole system has been primed for asymmetrical warfare/competition? YOU CAN'T! Deterrence?! Haha! That's dead b/c we're not equals any longer. And restoring it? Whoo-boy! Gonna be far costlier now than even 2 years ago!

25/ Besides, do you think that Putin, Xi, et al. want "deterrence"? F*ck no, man! They want COMPELLENCE. Very different. And these boys are on the offensive like never before. And what're we doing? Dinkering around w/ arms to Ukraine when we should be talking SPACE BASED DEFENSE!

26/ Talking about nuclear escalation when we should be talking about completely out-innovating our rivals in the strategic arms domain. Leapfrogging our rivals by creating new technology that's so advanced we can yet again re-live Desert Storm.

27/ Alas, all of these things are HIGHLY DESTABILIZING to the sclerotic, insulated, and dying elite who rule us today from Washington. Pathetic. We deserve to lose. Remember, #Reagan told everyone he meant to defeat the Soviets. All the beautiful people in Washington laughed.

28/ But, do you know what? Reagan had the last laugh. He capitalized on the burgeoning high-tech revolution and provided the NON-LETHAL killing stroke to Soviet Communism once-and-for-all. We can have that again against our autocratic foes...but WE NEED NEW LEADERSHIP!!

29/ This is why I recommend a policy of PRUDENT REALISM coupled with COMPELLENCE in which we do not go tit-for-tat w/ our rivals. Instead, we outpace/outmaneuver our great rivals today to prevent them from even risking a wider war w/ us.

30/ Bottom line: the raging, passionate premodern men who rule the autocracies challenging the West today DO. NOT. FEAR. US. I mean to reinstill FEAR into these people by completely out-innovating them in the high-tech space ...

31/...And by completely rebuilding America's national defenses, it's education system, & its overall COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL POWER so that we attract the world's talent & capital over the other nations & we're so militarily powerful that everyone backs off of us.

32/ You want stability? You've got to be unstable for a while to get it. You've got to be crazier than the next two guys b/c you're not debating the finer points of life at Harvard Yard. You're in a bar brawl & the other side just pulled a broken bottle on you.