Thread by @NewStatesman

"The question often asked about Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is: why? The answer lies in geography, history and personality." | Writes Tim Marshall newstatesman.com/world/europe/u…

"According to many Western intellectuals the end of the Cold War was supposed to usher in an era of peace and prosperity... It was a poor reading of history."

"Those who argued that war was an anachronism in 21st-century Europe are having to face the limitations of reasonable engagement with an unreasonable violent power. Underpinning Putin’s rationale for his criminal invasion of Ukraine is an appeal to nationalism."

"Before Russia’s western border is the North European Plain. This flat-land stretches from France all the way to the Ural Mountains. Its narrowest point is between the Baltic Sea and the Carpathian Mountains – Poland."

"If an invading army is heading east from Europe, once it gets through Poland the plain widens again all along the Russian border. Conversely, an army heading west can also fan out once it is past Poland."

"Poland represents a relatively narrow corridor into which Russia can drive its armed forces to block an enemy advance towards its own border, which, being wider, is much harder to defend."

"Over the past 500 years, Russia has been invaded several times from the west. The Poles came across the European Plain in 1605, followed by the Swedes in 1707, the French in 1812, and the Germans in 1914 and then again in 1941."

"Russian leaders have long attempted at least to control the flat-lands to their west, or even occupy them as part of the Russian empire, most recently in its formation as the USSR. "

"Russia lacks its own warm-water ports with direct access to the oceans. Some of the Arctic ports freeze for several months each winter, and Russian ships must contend with the ice packs to the north of the Arctic coastline."

"These two preoccupations – vulnerability on land and lack of warm-water ports – came together in Ukraine in 2014."

"As long as a pro-Russian government held sway in Kyiv, Russia could be confident that its most important buffer zone would remain intact and guard the European Plain along with Belarus."

"Even a neutral Ukraine, which promised not to join the EU or Nato and would uphold the lease Russia had on the warm-water port at Sevastopol in Crimea on the Black Sea, could be tolerated."

"But when a pro-Western government came to power after the Kyiv uprising in 2014 the Kremlin was horrified."

Read Tim Marshall's full article on why Vladimir Putin is
haunted by the nightmares of history and how he is the latest Russian leader to use violence and occupation to control the European flat-lands to the west
newstatesman.com/world/europe/u…