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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 19

1. The humanitarian tragedy unfolding in #Mariupol makes discussion of the military situation take a necessary back seat. But the hell that is unfolding in Mariupol will be repeated throughout Ukraine if the battles are lost. So I turn to the battle that is now about to begin.

2. First, In Mariupol, Ukraine has lost some densely populated neighborhoods but the vast majority of densely settled Mariupol is still under Ukrainian control and will not be sold cheaply. Based on reporting the Chechens came in from east on Azov's coast likely from Rostov.

3. That side of the FLOT has been held until now by DNR forces who are no match for the experienced disciplined forces who who have held them to a standstill. They've advanced very little. But now ISIS is there getting jacked on amphetamines and shooting up the windows of a

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 19

1. Starting in the 1980's, my life was focused on the cold war so I remember fairly well what was generally advanced as the major causes of the USSR's demise. I can recall Putin angrily commenting on it not that long ago. My recollection was that it's generally agreed

2. that the Reagan administration's strategy targeting Soviet technocrats to get them emigrate, was the final nail in the Soviet coffin that could no longer operate an increasingly complex civil society. It impacted all parts of

3. Soviet society including education, medicine engineering and the military. That strategy took years to work. Putin will accomplish it again in a few weeks. Only Russian proletariat will remain. The intelligentsia, bourgeoisie and most petite bourgeoisie will all again flee.

Read 4 tweets

Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 18

1. The death of four generals in combat in a single war is unheard off. Four in three weeks is proof of just how dysfunctional the corrupt Russian army is and why helping Ukraine finish the job is in the US strategic interest. bbc.com/news/magazine-…

2. My best explanation for this is Putin’s behaves like a violent mob boss who, like a boss trapped under withering fire, sends his men out one at a time to be killed. No rational commander would plan an operation that contemplated constantly putting generals in harm’s way.

@WHNSC

3. Another reason for this may be that Putin has simply lost so many senior combat commanders at the colonel level (or even perhaps lower) that there simply is nobody else to send. Either way, it evidences a degree of dysfunction that should be exploited. @WHNSC @SecDef

Read 5 tweets

Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 18

1. We should help Ukraine arm brigades of light fast up-armored infantry. Fast, flexible & deployable technicals with Mark 19 grenade launchers and ATGMs. 50,000 fighters.

2. Just jerry rig regular vehicles like the Kurds used to before we gave them the light armored vehicles. The point is 50,000 well-armed Ukrainians going all Mad Max on the Russians could have every invader out of the area recently invaded by May. Then Donbass.

3. And finally Crimea. Belarus owes a price for its involvement. Ukraine needs to take out every road bridge and rail line near Ukraine that they can reach if it is used to supply the Russians. We need to put JDAMS on their planes if we can. MALDs, JSOWs and Harms too.

Read 4 tweets

Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 16

1. DOJ going after China. Matthew Olsen says three in EDNY.

2. It's the long game. China is still not all in against Putin on Ukraine so they will be a much more active target. It's the kind of thing that will drive the CCP and the CMC nuts. The protection of democracy advocates in the US will make the US the center of the China democracy

3. efforts. As someone whose father was the last person on earth to see Chiang Kai-shek in mainland China and have advocated democracy in China for my entire life, I'm happy to see this. It protects Taiwan and our nationals from the CCP monsters among us.

Read 4 tweets

Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 14

1. After today's announcement that the International Criminal Court (ICC) was soon to issue a ruling on the March 1st referrals, I took a look at the ICC website. I had noted that Russia was not a Rome Convention signatory and neither is Ukraine. But with a caveat that I don't

2. know much about the ICC, it appears that Ukraine's earlier 2013 and continuing submission to ICC jurisdiction gives the court sufficient jurisdiction. What I don't know is whether it can issue a ruling that will find Russia, and Putin in particular, have engaged in

3. agressive war and war crimes. I think the reason that the Kremlin produced the bioweapon fabrication is to be able to pose a defense. I presume it won't work but if I'm right that it was what prompted the bioweapon farce, it may mean the Kremlin expects to be charged or at

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