Thread by @jmkorhonen

Many people have wondered how the Finns defend Finland today, so here's a very short introduction to modern Finnish defence policy - and a brief synopsis of how the Finnish military would probably fight if any hostile country decided to invade. 1/

Note I'm not an expert, just a Finn who has followed these things for couple of decades.

First, the reason why Finland has a military and a defence policy in the first place is to stay out from wars. We are basically very smol and just want to live in peace, on our own terms. 2/

Unfortunately, our ancestors made many bad decisions, such as moving to this cold, dark and wet piece of land - were all the warm beaches really taken?

Aside from dreadful weather and lack of sunlight, Finland also sits on prime real estate, strategically speaking. 3/

St. Petersburg, Russia's number two city, is very close to Finnish border, and the Baltic seaway to Russia runs a gauntlet in the narrow Gulf of Finland. Whoever controls Finland and Estonia could theoretically bottle up the Russian maritime traffic at will. 4/

In the North, Finland abuts the Kola peninsula, which is home for the main retaliatory strategic nuclear force of the Russian Federation - its Northern Fleet missile submarines - and is close to their main operating area, the "Bastion." (Pic from a FIIA report) 5/

The High North has been problematic for another reason: Soviet Union planned to "neutralize" northern Norway in case of war with NATO, and to do so, it required land access through Finnish (and Swedish) Lapland. (Source: esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Doc…) 6/

So we don't believe anyone would attack us to plunder Finland or occupy us just for occupation's sake, but believe an attack could happen because we sit on prime real estate that would be desired by anyone who wants to have a go at the other side. 7/

Since the end of the WW2, the Finnish defence policy has been based on the need to deny both sides the freedom to use our territory against the other side. The idea was not to be able to win a war against a great power, but to charge a stiff enough fee for access, so to speak. 8/

Again, the problem is that as a nation we are very smol. But our country is very large. Finland is about the same size as Germany (pop. 83 million) but has only about 5.5 million inhabitants. And we have 1340 km of land border against Russia. 9/

The only even somewhat credible solution to the problem is conscription and a system known as "total defence".

"Total defence" means that the entire society can be mobilized to ensure national survival. This is not just empty talk: we actually practice it. 10/

Civilian and military authorities hold joint courses (very prestigious ones too) to learn and even exercise the tasks they would have to undertake in a crisis. We even keep stockpiling all kinds of stuff "just in case" - this was helpful during the onset of COVID. 11/

The total defence concept is subtly visible if you know where to look. Every Finnish building exceeding 1200 square meters of floorspace has to have a fallout/bomb shelter. The shelters are equipped with air filtration and they have to be ready to be occupied in 72 hours. 12/

Cities also have large shelters cut deep into the granite bedrock; ordinarily they are used as e.g. sports arenas. 13/

Less visible reminder of the total defence policy is the requirement to equip every bridge, overpass, tunnel, rock cut and similar construction with prepared demolition charge pits. Don't worry if you are in Finland, actual explosives would be installed only during a crisis.14/

Total defense policy is also visible most Fridays, when the conscripts go home for the weekend. (One Japanese lady once asked me at the Helsinki main railway station, "is this a military base, because there are so many people in camoflage uniform?") 15/

Every male is subject to conscription, females can volunteer. Most serve in the military, but civilian service is an option. Declining from both nets max 6 months in a prison, without permanent criminal record. (Amnesty rightly considers those "prisoners of conscience".) 16/

Conscript service takes 5.5, 8.5 or 11.5 months depending on speciality. But that is just basic training: Finnish military units are considered combat ready only after they are exercised at least once in a refresher exercise. 17/

Let's now play "what if": what might happen if the Kremlin began to concentrate forces along the Finnish border and started to make more threatening noises than usual, like they did in Ukraine? Here's a 2020 video to explain one possible scenario. 18/

Finnish military intelligence is, by all accounts, a very effective service. It would detect the buildup and advise the military and civilian leadership. Readiness levels would be increased, quietly as usual. (One signal: conscripts loading live, not inert missiles.) 19/

At some point, some reservists would be called up to train and undertake preparations for mobilization, e.g. begin to disperse equipment from peacetime storage sites to designated mobilization centers. Snap refresher exercises would begin. 20/

If the buildup continued to look hostile, more reservists would be called up. Together with civilian construction companies, they would begin to turn Finland into a hedgehog: prepared defensive positions and minefields would be constructed, and demolition charges installed. 21/

The Navy would begin to lay minefields to close off the Finnish coast. Only selected sea lanes would be left open, guarded by warships and shore-based artillery and missile batteries. 22/

The Air Force would disperse to numerous small roadside bases - almost any straight stretch of a road would suffice in a pinch.

Troops would prepare to move to defend the normally demilitarized Åland islands. 23/

If one were so monumentally stupid that they would nevertheless invade Finland, the Defence Forces' wartime strength of 280 000 men and women and about 700 000 reservists would be ready to meet them. From the moment hostiles cross the border, they would be in mortal danger. 24/

The current Finnish doctrine envisages small, nimble combined arms units using the limitations of Finnish terrain and their local knowledge to the hilt, hitting the attackers from ambush and then breaking off to repeat the deed - like the Ukrainians have apparently been doing.25/

Here's a FDF instructional video. (Note how the "yellow" attacker is coming from a neutral direction and using US Apache helicopters :D. We don't mention the most likely enemy by the name, but if it comes from anywhere but east, it's flanking us.) 26/

Using artillery, direct fires and minefields, the initial phase would cause casualties and in general degrade the enemy's will and capability to fight, while canalizing its movement towards certain routes. This phase would be conducted mostly by light infantry units. 27/

The heavy sluggers of the Armored Brigade would still wait in their dispersed and well-camoflaged hideouts. But after the initial attack is blunted and odds look favorable, the mailed fist of the Republic would clench its fingers. 28/

Supported by the long-range artillery of the supreme high command and protected from air attack by a coordinated effort of the air force, the mechanized forces would initiate a major counter-attack to actually defeat the worn-down enemy. 29/

The idea would be to cause such a cumulative loss to the enemy that the initial attacking force could not continue the attack, and the enemy would be interested in a negotiated end to the war - which is always the endgame the Finnish defence policy seeks. 30/

After all, we know that we cannot win a protracted war against the most likely opponent. The Finnish defenders would cause any invader horrendous casualties for several weeks or months, but if casualties aren't a concern, overwhelming numbers would eventually wear us down. 31/

Depending on the overall global situation and the strategic warning time, we might require resupply of critical munitions within weeks, and replacements for equipment losses soon after that. That is one reason we are almost certainly going to join NATO now. 32/

But there is another, more important reason. Finnish military exists to prevent a war. It wins if it never again has to fight.

Now it seems the lords of the Kremlin are prone to making catastrophic misjudgements about the will and capability of small countries. 33/

No one can guarantee they won't be making the same mistake with Finland in the future.

And there has never been such a crushing victory that it would've been preferable to an avoided war.

We cannot help geography, but we can stand stronger against bullies together.

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