Thread by @PopovaProf

A 🧵on the significance of EPPO's arrests of former 🇧🇬 PM Borissov and associates on suspicion of EU funds fraud. This is the beginning of a big-risk/big-pay-off move by the EPPO and the reformists in the 🇧🇬 governing coalition... /1

The arrests demonstrate EPPO aims high, dispelling some fears that it might become clogged/distracted by minor cases. Kovesi shows she is motivated to uncover grand corruption, just as she did in Romania./2

The arrests went around 🇧🇬's politically compromised, but inst powerful general prosecution. The 🇧🇬 govt reportedly plans to amend Criminal Code to allow *individual* prosecutors to refer cases to EPPO. Big political opportunity to democratize the prosecution and unclog it! /3

If the prosecutions eventually succeed in a convincing way, there would be huge gains for the rule of law in 🇧🇬, an EU-wide demonstration effect, a reduction in fraud, and a big legitimacy gain for EPPO and the EU more broadly. /4

But the devil is in the details and there are many risks. The legal risk is that prosecuting grand corruption convincingly is always hard because evidence is well-concealed. They may stumble in getting good evidence. /5

The political risks are bigger. Prosecution will have to use testimony/evidence from an odious oligarch in exile. The govt is a strained coalition, which includes BSP who have their own skeletons and are not committed to anticorr. GERB has an electoral base, which may protest. /6

The ascendant pro-Russian far right (Revival) immediately allege American and European "overlords" are behind the arrests (even though Revival is anti-GERB). In the context of disinformation flows abt the war, conspiracies abt the arrests could take off in a big way! /7

In short, this is a bold step by both Kovesi's EPPO and the reformists in the governing coalition. Good luck to them! /8