Menthor Q Profile picture
Mar 18, 2022 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
1/ Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and upsizing their facilities. They are obviously under pressure and the bond market is repricing. Here you have the CDS of Louis Dreyfus, a trading house active in the agri space. Image
2/ The yield of Gunvor bond due in ‘26 went up to 16.8%, while Trafigura is close to 10%. Traf has been in talks with KKR and Blackstone to raise equity Image
3/ After ‘08 trading houses took the role that the bank used to have. JPM, J Aron (GS), MS used to trade heavy volumes of physical until regulators clipped their wings. Their role is pretty important throughout the supply chain, a blow up in this market would be a problem

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More from @MenthorQpro

Feb 12
1/ This chart shows the 1-Month SKEW for $SPX — and it’s flashing a strong PUT BIAS.

Let’s break down what that means in simple terms. 🧵👇 Image
2/ First: What is “skew”?

Skew measures the difference in demand between:

• Downside protection (puts)
• Upside speculation (calls)

When skew rises → traders are paying more for downside protection.
3/ Right now, skew is in the 95th percentile over the last 3 months.

That means:

• Put demand is higher than 95% of recent readings.
• Traders are aggressively hedging downside risk.

That’s elevated fear / caution in the options market.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 4
1/ This chart compares $SPX price (white) with Q-CTA positioning (green).

Think of CTAs as trend-following, systematic funds that add or reduce exposure based on price direction. Image
2/ When the green line rises, CTAs are adding exposure.
When it falls, CTAs are reducing exposure.

They don’t predict, they react.
3/ Notice the pattern over time:

• Big selloff → CTAs cut risk hard
• Market stabilizes → CTAs slowly re-enter
• Strong uptrend → CTAs build exposure

This is classic trend-following behavior.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 10, 2025
$SPX Key Levels for December 10, 2025 – Market Structure Insights

1/ Today’s SPX landscape is shaped by notable Gamma and Swing Levels. Here’s what stands out from the options market structure: Image
2/ Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels:
•⁠ ⁠Support: 6500 (Put Support)
•⁠ ⁠Key inflection points: 6725, 6750, 6775
•⁠ ⁠1D Min: 6780.96
•⁠ ⁠Cluster: 6800, 6830, 6835, 6840
•⁠ ⁠Last EOD: 6840.51
•⁠ ⁠HVL: 6845
•⁠ ⁠0DTE Hotspots: 6850 (Put Support & HVL), 6900 (Call Resistance & Gamma Wall)
•⁠ ⁠Upper: 6925, 6950, 7000 (Call Resistance)
3/ Swing Levels:
•⁠ ⁠Lower Bands: 6707.78–6743.42
•⁠ ⁠Reaction Triggers: 6973.24–6997.38
•⁠ ⁠Last EOD Price: 6840.51
Read 7 tweets
Dec 4, 2025
1/ SPX & Q-CTA Update — December 4, 2025

SPX continues to hold near the upper end of its recent range, but the story beneath the surface hasn’t changed: systematic trend-followers (CTAs) are still running lighter than they were a few weeks ago. 🧵👇 Image
2/ This chart tracks two lines:

White: SPX (the S&P 500 index)
Green: Q-CTA Position (how much exposure quant trend models are holding)
When the green line rises → CTAs are adding exposure.
When it falls → they’re cutting back.
3/ The key move recently is the sharp CTA unwind.
Over the past month, CTAs went from holding some of their highest exposure of the year to quickly stepping back as momentum cooled.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 3, 2025
$SPX Key Levels for 2025-12-03

1/ Today’s SPX options landscape is packed with critical levels. Here’s what stands out from the options market structure 👇🧵 Image
2/ Major Put Support sits at 6500, providing a potential floor if volatility picks up.
3/ Key Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels to watch:

6725, 6730, 6750, 6768, 6775, 6800, 6805, 6850, 6865, 6870, 6875, 6880, 6887, 6900, 6925, 7000.

These are zones where dealer hedging flows may impact price action.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 2, 2025
1/ SPX GEX Update — December 2, 2025

$SPX sits around 6,815, and today’s GEX landscape shows a market that’s tightly pinned between heavy call resistance above and layered put support below.

December expirations are now doing most of the heavy lifting. Image
2/ Each panel shows Gamma Exposure (GEX) across different SPX option expirations.
Positive GEX = stabilizing forces
Negative GEX = areas where volatility can expand
The shape of the GEX distribution tells us where price might feel sticky or unstable.
3/ The near-term expirations (Dec 2 & Dec 3) show modest GEX levels:
• Dec 2: 3.02% expiring
• Dec 3: 3.75% expiring
These smaller clusters tend to keep short-term movement contained, unless spot drifts into the dense red/green zones.
Read 9 tweets

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