1/ Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and upsizing their facilities. They are obviously under pressure and the bond market is repricing. Here you have the CDS of Louis Dreyfus, a trading house active in the agri space.
2/ The yield of Gunvor bond due in ‘26 went up to 16.8%, while Trafigura is close to 10%. Traf has been in talks with KKR and Blackstone to raise equity
3/ After ‘08 trading houses took the role that the bank used to have. JPM, J Aron (GS), MS used to trade heavy volumes of physical until regulators clipped their wings. Their role is pretty important throughout the supply chain, a blow up in this market would be a problem
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SPX continues to hold near the upper end of its recent range, but the story beneath the surface hasn’t changed: systematic trend-followers (CTAs) are still running lighter than they were a few weeks ago. 🧵👇
2/ This chart tracks two lines:
White: SPX (the S&P 500 index)
Green: Q-CTA Position (how much exposure quant trend models are holding)
When the green line rises → CTAs are adding exposure.
When it falls → they’re cutting back.
3/ The key move recently is the sharp CTA unwind.
Over the past month, CTAs went from holding some of their highest exposure of the year to quickly stepping back as momentum cooled.
$SPX sits around 6,815, and today’s GEX landscape shows a market that’s tightly pinned between heavy call resistance above and layered put support below.
December expirations are now doing most of the heavy lifting.
2/ Each panel shows Gamma Exposure (GEX) across different SPX option expirations.
Positive GEX = stabilizing forces
Negative GEX = areas where volatility can expand
The shape of the GEX distribution tells us where price might feel sticky or unstable.
3/ The near-term expirations (Dec 2 & Dec 3) show modest GEX levels:
• Dec 2: 3.02% expiring
• Dec 3: 3.75% expiring
These smaller clusters tend to keep short-term movement contained, unless spot drifts into the dense red/green zones.