Menthor Q Profile picture
Mar 18, 2022 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
1/ Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and upsizing their facilities. They are obviously under pressure and the bond market is repricing. Here you have the CDS of Louis Dreyfus, a trading house active in the agri space. Image
2/ The yield of Gunvor bond due in ‘26 went up to 16.8%, while Trafigura is close to 10%. Traf has been in talks with KKR and Blackstone to raise equity Image
3/ After ‘08 trading houses took the role that the bank used to have. JPM, J Aron (GS), MS used to trade heavy volumes of physical until regulators clipped their wings. Their role is pretty important throughout the supply chain, a blow up in this market would be a problem

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More from @MenthorQpro

Apr 23
1/ $SPX momentum check

This chart tracks a Momentum Score (0 → 5) to show how strong the current trend is.

Right now: momentum is maxed out. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

• Top = SPX price
• Bottom = Momentum Score

Higher score = stronger trend
Lower score = weak / choppy market
3/ What’s happening now?

Momentum Score = 5 (max level)
SPX just made a strong move higher

This tells us:
the trend is currently strong
Read 11 tweets
Apr 22
1/ $SPX just made a strong move let’s break down this 5-day swing model in simple terms

This tool helps show where the market may be overextended or at risk of reversing. Image
2/ What you’re looking at:

•⁠ ⁠Candles = SPX price
•⁠ ⁠Red line = Upper band (overbought zone)
•⁠ ⁠Green line = Lower band (oversold zone)
•⁠ ⁠Dashed line = Risk trigger
3/ SPX is currently at $7,064 still climbing toward the upper band (~7200 area)

•⁠ ⁠Risk trigger sits at $7,216 approximately $152 away from current price
•⁠ ⁠We're in the middle of the move, not yet at the exhaustion zone
•⁠ ⁠This is a key zone to watch as we approach it.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 17
1/ $SPX just flipped its Option Score here’s what that means in simple terms.

This indicator helps show whether options positioning is leaning bullish or bearish.

And right now, it’s shifting fast. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

Top = SPX price

Bottom = Option Score (0 → 5)

• Higher score = more bullish positioning
• Lower score = more neutral / bearish
3/ What just happened?

• The score jumped from ~1 → 5 (max level)
• At the same time, SPX is rallying hard

That’s a strong shift in sentiment
Read 11 tweets
Apr 16
1/ Who’s really driving the $SPX right now?

This chart shows SPX vs CTA positioning a way to track how systematic funds (trend-followers) are positioned.

And the shift here is important. Image
2/ Quick basics:

White line = SPX price

Green line = CTA position

• When CTAs are long → they add buying pressure
• When CTAs are short → they can add selling pressure
3/ What just happened?

• CTA positioning dropped sharply into negative territory
• Then quickly bounced back up

That’s a fast flip in positioning
Read 11 tweets
Apr 15
1/ What are options traders expecting from $SPX right now?

This chart shows 1-month skew a simple way to see whether the market is pricing more upside or downside risk.

And it’s shifting. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

• Top = SPX price

• Bottom = “skew” (risk reversal)
• Higher skew = more demand for downside protection (fear)
• Lower skew = more demand for upside (confidence)
3/ Current reading:

• Skew = CALL BIAS
• Percentile ≈ 16% (low)

Translation:
Options are relatively cheap for upside vs downside
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
1/ Right now, the options market is pricing in a lot of short-term stress and it's worth paying attention to 👇🧵 Image
2/ This chart shows the term structure of volatility for $SPX.

In simple terms: → how expensive options are across time (short-term vs longer-term)
3/ What stands out immediately:

Short-term volatility is VERY elevated

Then it drops off quickly as you go further out That steep drop = important.
Read 13 tweets

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