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Menthor Q Profile picture
@MenthorQpro
Mar 18, 2022 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1/ Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and upsizing their facilities. They are obviously under pressure and the bond market is repricing. Here you have the CDS of Louis Dreyfus, a trading house active in the agri space. Image
2/ The yield of Gunvor bond due in ‘26 went up to 16.8%, while Trafigura is close to 10%. Traf has been in talks with KKR and Blackstone to raise equity Image
3/ After ‘08 trading houses took the role that the bank used to have. JPM, J Aron (GS), MS used to trade heavy volumes of physical until regulators clipped their wings. Their role is pretty important throughout the supply chain, a blow up in this market would be a problem

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More from @MenthorQpro

Menthor Q Profile picture
Apr 16
1/ Who’s really driving the $SPX right now?

This chart shows SPX vs CTA positioning a way to track how systematic funds (trend-followers) are positioned.

And the shift here is important. Image
2/ Quick basics:

White line = SPX price

Green line = CTA position

• When CTAs are long → they add buying pressure
• When CTAs are short → they can add selling pressure
3/ What just happened?

• CTA positioning dropped sharply into negative territory
• Then quickly bounced back up

That’s a fast flip in positioning
Read 11 tweets
Menthor Q Profile picture
Apr 15
1/ What are options traders expecting from $SPX right now?

This chart shows 1-month skew a simple way to see whether the market is pricing more upside or downside risk.

And it’s shifting. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

• Top = SPX price

• Bottom = “skew” (risk reversal)
• Higher skew = more demand for downside protection (fear)
• Lower skew = more demand for upside (confidence)
3/ Current reading:

• Skew = CALL BIAS
• Percentile ≈ 16% (low)

Translation:
Options are relatively cheap for upside vs downside
Read 11 tweets
Menthor Q Profile picture
Apr 8
1/ Right now, the options market is pricing in a lot of short-term stress and it's worth paying attention to 👇🧵 Image
2/ This chart shows the term structure of volatility for $SPX.

In simple terms: → how expensive options are across time (short-term vs longer-term)
3/ What stands out immediately:

Short-term volatility is VERY elevated

Then it drops off quickly as you go further out That steep drop = important.
Read 13 tweets
Menthor Q Profile picture
Apr 7
1/ This is where things get interesting for $SPX right now.

Price seems to be pulling back… but the bigger story is what systematic funds are doing. 👇🧵 Image
2/ The green line = CTA positioning.

These are trend-following funds that:
→ add risk when markets rise
→ cut risk when markets fall

They can amplify moves.
3/ Right now:

• CTA positioning is dropping sharply
• Recently flipped negative

That’s a big shift.
Read 11 tweets
Menthor Q Profile picture
Apr 6
1/ This is one of the clearest “roadmaps” for SPX right now across multiple expirations

And it helps explain where price may react next. 👇🧵 Image
2/ This chart breaks down GEX (gamma exposure) by different expiries.

Think of it like layers of positioning:
→ short-term
→ medium-term
→ longer-term

Each layer matters, and they don't all agree.
3/ First thing to notice:

Across most expirations, put support sits BELOW price (6400–6500 area) and call resistance sits ABOVE (6600–7100 area)

That creates a range.
Read 11 tweets
Menthor Q Profile picture
Apr 3
1/  $SPX options market is telling an interesting story today. Total Net GEX across all expirations is -245.79M (normalized to -100), signaling a dealer short gamma environment.

But here's where it gets nuanced: the distribution reveals distinct dealer hedging regimes. Image
2/ Weekly expirations are dealer long gamma.

The April 6th (2 DTE) carries +88.55M GEX (normalized +12.82), with call resistance at 6,690 and put support at 6,450.

This is where the short-term stabilization lives. Tight OI P/C ratio of 1.17 shows relatively balanced near term flow.
3/ Now shift to April 17th (11 DTE monthly): -177.74M GEX (normalized -25.73). This is the primary dealer short gamma concentration.

When dealers are short gamma at scale like this, they're hedging by scalping volatility buying dips, selling rips.

Expect choppy, mean-reverting price behavior.
Read 13 tweets

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