1/ Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and upsizing their facilities. They are obviously under pressure and the bond market is repricing. Here you have the CDS of Louis Dreyfus, a trading house active in the agri space.
2/ The yield of Gunvor bond due in ‘26 went up to 16.8%, while Trafigura is close to 10%. Traf has been in talks with KKR and Blackstone to raise equity
3/ After ‘08 trading houses took the role that the bank used to have. JPM, J Aron (GS), MS used to trade heavy volumes of physical until regulators clipped their wings. Their role is pretty important throughout the supply chain, a blow up in this market would be a problem
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1/ $SPX just made a strong move let’s break down this 5-day swing model in simple terms
This tool helps show where the market may be overextended or at risk of reversing.
2/ What you’re looking at:
• Candles = SPX price
• Red line = Upper band (overbought zone)
• Green line = Lower band (oversold zone)
• Dashed line = Risk trigger
3/ SPX is currently at $7,064 still climbing toward the upper band (~7200 area)
• Risk trigger sits at $7,216 approximately $152 away from current price
• We're in the middle of the move, not yet at the exhaustion zone
• This is a key zone to watch as we approach it.